BCS Projection/Analysis Week 14

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

12:30p Update with Coaches poll

Texas did 20-30 points better than my intentionally conservative estimate. Even if TCU gets every single #2 vote in the Harris, and even if the computers don't break Texas' way in the computers on the ones I mention below, Texas still has a healthy lead over TCU and Cincy. Same is true if Cincy got every #2 in Harris and Texas got #3 (but that's REALLY far fetched anyway).

Texas is going to Pasadena.

9:08 Update with Sagarin

I can't say I'm entirely surprised, but Texas came in one notch lower than I expected in Sagarin. This is usually the only poll we have clarity on before the BCS is released, so we won't see a lot else from the computers this morning/afternoon (although you can get a pretty good feel on Colley). Sagarin has been punishing to Texas all year, but I really thought they would jump TCU. It's little surprise to me Florida stayed ahead of Texas, but I am surprised they were #2 despite the loss.

If this is the only disappointing computer result for Texas, it should be fine, since the lowest score gets dropped anyway. But at the margin, this may be indicative of Texas remaining weaker in several other computers, particularly Wolfe and Massey. I'll stick with the projection from last night, but areas where Texas could be vulnerable relative to my forecast:

1. Texas doesn't jump Florida in AH
2. Texas doesn't jump TCU in Massey


Even if that doesn't pan out as stated above, Texas should still have a decent lead on Cincy/TCU, but it would make them more vulnerable to a groundswell against Texas in the human ballots. TCU may also be able to jump Cincy, given the stronger than expected possibilities in the computers.

Overall, still not worried, but the coaches poll will be crucial. I would also expect the coaches poll to be more pro-Texas than the Harris will.

Base Case
Team       Coach  Score  Harris  Score   AH RB CM KM JS PW  Score    BCS
Alabama     1475  1.0000  2850   1.0000  25 25 25 25 25 25  1.0000  1.0000
Texas       1382  0.9369  2670   0.9369  23 24 24 22 21 22  0.9100  0.9280
Cincy       1315  0.8915  2541   0.8915  24 21 23 24 23 24  0.9400  0.9077
TCU         1374  0.9315  2655   0.9315  21 22 21 21 22 21  0.8500  0.9044
Boise St   (computers only)              20 20 19 20 19 20
Florida    (computers only)              22 23 22 23 24 23

Original message from very early Sunday morning

Tomorrow, I expect the following rankings:

1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Cincy
4. TCU

I think there's a few key elements to think about as we await the official confirmation from tomorrow:

(1) The Texas win, while brutally tight, was legitimate. I was at the game in person, so I didn't have the benefit of seeing how controversial the decision to put a second back on the clock might have been. Based on what I've heard, and listening to national pundits (including Mel Kiper as I type), there is no appearance whatsoever that the media view the Texas win as illegimate. A close win means Texas loses some sponsorship on the ballots, but by and large they keep enough to stay ahead of TCU and Cincy. An illegitimate win means voters work hard to keep Texas out of the game, because they should have lost.

(2) Most voters know Texas got jobbed in 2008, and they also are hearing most experts tonight say it's a foregone conclusion Texas will go to Pasadena. Thus, Texas will tend to get the benefit of the doubt on a lot of ballots.

(3) Cincy does not have a lot to hang their hat on. They won by virtue of a missed extra point. The tendency should be for more voters to keep them behind Texas and TCU. This is crucial, because Cincy probably continues to outrank Texas in the computers tomorrow, but they won't have enough juice to jump Texas in the overall BCS.

(4) TCU will pick up some votes, but they did not play today. Their computer score will suffer impairment, and the gap is simply too big relative to Texas for them to make it close. The computer detriment will be so bad that they will likely fall behind Cincinnati in tomorrow's final BCS.

I think "open code" is the right way to approach this thing, hopefully to help us all sleep tonight. I know many posters follow the polls and computers closely, so I welcome any feedback. Let me first put forth my "base case," where I am at the margin trying to be conservative. This means I am keeping Florida ahead of Texas in several polls where SOS is highly important, and I'm also being "conservative" on how Texas' human votes play out.

Base Case
Team       Coach  Score  Harris  Score   AH RB CM KM JS PW  Score    BCS
Alabama     1475  1.0000  2850   1.0000  25 25 25 25 25 25  1.0000  1.0000
Texas       1382  0.9369  2670   0.9369  23 24 24 22 22 22  0.9100  0.9280
Cincy       1315  0.8915  2541   0.8915  24 21 23 24 24 24  0.9500  0.9110
TCU         1374  0.9315  2655   0.9315  21 22 21 21 21 21  0.8400  0.9010
Boise St   (computers only)              20 20 19 20 20 20
Florida    (computers only)              22 23 22 23 23 23

Guys, I think this is pretty conservative. Note how close the Texas and TCU votes are. It assumes Texas outgains TCU in 2nd place votes 35 to 20, and TCU is a solid #3 beyond those ballots. I'd be shocked if it were that close tomorrow, but I'd still rather be conservative, especially after last year.

Debunking TCU

Let's give TCU the best shot they have, hypothetically. If you want to assume that TCU jumps Texas and is ranked #2 on every single ballot, but keep the above computer assumptions stable, yes, TCU would jump Texas ever so slightly. If you assume a mere 4 coaches (and equivalent Harris voters) kept Texas #2 and TCU #3, but the overwhelming majority put TCU #2 and Texas #3, you get the following:

2. Texas 0.9185
3. TCU 0.9182

TCU simply lacks the computer strength to pull it off.

Debunking Cincy

I can come up with a hairy scenario where Cincy edges out Texas, but it puts rational voting behavior on its head. It involves Cincy taking significant #2 and #3 votes from TCU and Texas when they don't really have a leg to stand on after a soft performance against Pitt. You need to assume two things: a) voters intentionally want Texas not to go to Pasadena, and b) voters are actually smart enough to realize that they need to vote for Cincy, not TCU. I just don't see either of these happening to any meaningful degree. TCU is a fine football team that has has a solid year, and deserves to be higher than Cincy on most ballots (and heck, after tonight, maybe higher than Texas on a few ballots, too). Cincy does not deserve any meaningful amount of #2 votes.

Nonetheless, if you want the hairy scenario, here's one. It's not very logical, but it gives you an idea of the math necessary.

Votes/Place      1      2      3      4
Alabama         59                          1475
Texas                  28     20     11     1374
TCU                    14     20     25     1346
Cincy                  17     19     23     1351

Resulting BCS

2. Cincy   0.9273
3. Texas   0.9244

Bowl Projections

I'm basically keeping them the same as my projections from last week. I can re-paste my logic on the selections if anyone has any thoughts:

NC: Alabama vs. Texas
Sugar: Florida vs. Cincy
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta: Iowa vs. Boise State
Rose: Oregon vs. Ohio State

Final Thoughts

I feel pretty at peace with this working out all right tomorrow, and I suspect when the coaches poll comes out, we'll feel really confident.

I've really appreciated everyone's interest this year. I still feel terrible, as much as I hedged it and called it a toss-up in 2008, that I got the initial call wrong on Texas/OU. That makes one gun shy when the big night comes a year later, but I'm really not worried. It should be all good.
This post was edited on 12/6 7:24 AM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 12/6 9:26 AM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 12/6 12:36 PM by SynTex1

Posted on 12/6 12:52 AM | IP: Logged

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 13

Note: this was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

Projection for tomorrow

I don't expect any change in the rankings tomorrow.
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. TCU
5. Cincy
6. Boise

Looking Ahead to the Final Week

Absent a stunning upset in Arlington, it will be Texas versus the Florida/Alabama winner for the national championship game in Pasadena. Thankfully, we don't need to focus on the scenario of a one-loss SEC conference champ going to the NC anymore.

So is there any way at all Texas could get hosed next week? One should never assign a zero percent possibility when human judgment may be a factor, but I see no scenario that will keep an undefeated Texas team from the national championship game with any meaningful plausibility. I understand how many of us are still paranoid, after the three-way tie debacle from 2008. Believe me, I understand. But there is just no way.

What if TCU jumps Texas?
TCU already has a weaker computer score than the Horns, and it's going to get worse. TCU also is done with its season, meaning they can't boost their stock with the voters. For TCU to have any chance whatsoever, they must have Cincinnati lose to Pitt, to ensure that TCU is not seeing its votes diluted by the Bearcats. Then, TCU needs the one-loss SEC team to not fall below Texas in the majority of the computers. This might allow TCU to stay within 0.01 of Texas in the computers. Then, TCU must see about 6 out of 10 human voters, all of whom already have Texas ranked ahead of them, switch their vote from Texas to TCU. The odds for this perfect storm are astronomical.

What if Cincy jumps Texas?
Cincy would have a better shot than TCU of edging Texas in the computers (they still outrank Texas in 3 of them), but I do expect Cincy's advantage to diminish tomorrow. However, there are two really big problems for Cincy in the final week. First, the Pitt game has lost a lot of its luster given the Panthers' loss to West Virginia. More importantly, TCU is taking a lot of their votes, and TCU is done for the year. Cincinnati cannot jump Texas.

What if the SEC loser stays ahead of Texas?
Yes, Florida and Alabama both have amazing schedule strength which will translate in the computers. The SEC has had an incredible year, and it really will benefit both of these teams. One could project that the loser of the SEC title game may stay ahead of Texas in several (if not a majority) of the computers. Even with this potential advantage, it would take abnormal voting behavior for the SEC runner-up to stay ahead of Texas. Let's use Alabama as the loser in this scenario (since they would be the greater threat). Even if Alabama remains ahead of Texas in every single computer poll (unlikely), and Cincinnati serves as a wedge between Bama and Texas in several computers (unlikely), AND Alabama received every #3 vote (putting them ahead of undefeated TCU, Cincy, and Boise on every single ballot), they would still be a full 0.01 behind Texas in the final BCS. You would need to start thinking about voter shenanigans, where voters would be putting a one-loss Bama ahead of Texas. That's not going to happen, especially when the coaches' ballots will be made public. I think my computer assumption above is extreme, so Texas would have a good amount of buffer to withstand voter manipulation, should any occur (which I don't think it will).

If Texas wins in Arlington, they are going to Pasadena.

Included below is the updated strength of schedule projections. Texas had a good weekend, and will likely have a top-20 schedule when all is said and done. Alabama and Florida are off the charts. The other three remain very weak.

TEAM       CUR SOS  Rk  PROJSOS  Rk
Florida     0.528   15   0.555    6
Bama        0.536   12   0.563    2
Texas       0.518   26   0.530   17
TCU         0.477   63   0.477   63
Cincy       0.465   80   0.487   52
Boise       0.453   91   0.440   93

Seeding the BCS Bowls

Now that we are in the homestretch, the easiest way to discuss the way the bowls might play out is to look at the BCS pecking order:

(1) Sugar
Pick: SEC runner-up
Reason: No brainer.

(2) Fiesta
Pick: Iowa
Reason: The Fiesta knows they will probably get stuck with a non-BCS school on their other slot, so I think they will jump on a BCS at large contender. OkSt losing means that Iowa may be the choice (as the Big 10 is really the last man standing for at-large candidates). If it were simply about which Big 10 team deserves it, there is no doubt: it's Iowa. Iowa has played a much tougher schedule, and of course, they beat PSU head-to-head. Some might say that PSU would be better for ratings and attendance. I'm not so sure. PSU has been a major disappointment in 2009, and has not exactly been electrifying in winning against weak competition. Conversely, Iowa has exceeded expectations significantly in 2009. Also, Iowa could bring better potential fan turnout based on their history. They had 20,000 fans come to a regular season game at AzSt in 2004, and they set an Orange Bowl record in 2003 with 47,000 tickets sold. Geographically, the Fiesta isn't that much of a stretch for Iowa either. I think Iowa makes the most sense at this point.

(3) Orange
Pick: TCU
Reason: This is a tough one. Maybe the Orange would think about taking Cincy, but then again, the Orange just had Cincy last year, which is probably just enough reason for the Orange to go with TCU. Geographically, TCU isn't as good of a fit here as they would be in either the Sugar or Fiesta. The Orange is hungry for taking a quality team after having been stuck with some really lousy/uninspiring match-ups the last few years. TCU is clearly a much higher quality team than the other undefeateds outside of the NC game (and it's not even close, in my view).

(4) Fiesta
Pick: Boise State
Reason: A few years ago in the Fiesta, BSU played in one of the most exciting games of all time, stunning OU in overtime. The Fiesta may hope to relive that experience by inviting Boise again. There is a slight shot USC could inch into the top 14 if they win out, and the Fiesta could be tempted to go with a higher ratings/fan base play. But that seems pretty slim to me.

(5) Sugar
Pick: Cincinnati
Cincinnati becomes the "plug" team after the other at larges have been set. They would be thrilled to have the opportunity to make their case against a high quality SEC team.

So this sequence of events would give us:

NC: Texas vs. SEC winner
Sugar: SEC runner-up vs. Cincy
Fiesta: Iowa vs. Boise
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Rose: Ohio State vs. Oregon

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 12

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

final update with real standings

Wow. Bama scored very well in the computers, getting a perfect 1.00 (only Andersen Hester has them lower than #1, and that gets dropped out of the calculation). They could become #1 after beating Auburn, but obviously, it doesn't really matter too much. Cincinatti, despite not playing a game, saw a spike in their computer rating. I really don't know why, but there it is. They have played the 61st most difficult schedule in the country (Texas has played the 26th most difficult), yet Massey, Sagarin Elo Chess and Wolfe have Cincy solidly ahead of Texas. By the way, those three computers are the ones I've had the hardest time forecasting lately. None of this changes my view that Texas is golden if they win out, but I am now beginning to wonder if TCU can hold Cincinatti off. In the event the Horns get stunned, I'm wondering if Cincy will be the primary beneficiary, getting the chance to play for the NC. Hopefully it's a moot point.

1:45p update with coaches and Harris polls

TCU scoring a little bit better than expected in both polls, but the gap between Texas and TCU will remain comfortable. Actually, that looks to be true throughout the top 6, where decent gaps exist between #1/#2, #2/#3, etc. Still think BCS should be unchanged for the top 6. Oklahoma State will be close to cracking the top 10 (maybe #11), and if Pitt falls below them after a potential loss to Cincy, OkSt may be top-10 in the final BCS poll. I really like their chances if they can pull it out in Norman.

Original post from last night

Overview

Fairly brief update this late night, as there's really not much to say. It's still looking like a destiny-match between the SEC winner and Texas. I do not expect the BCS to change meaningfully this week. Therefore, tomorrow's BCS should look like:

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. TCU
5. Cincy
6. Boise

I was slightly disappointed by Louisiana Monroe and UTEP losing to weak opponents (particularly the latter), but it really doesn't matter. Texas will have a top 20-ish schedule when all is said and done, which will ensure there will not be any threat from TCU or Cincy. If Texas wins out, they will be in Pasadena. TCU and/or Cincy will simply not be able to get enough votes, even if Texas struggles somewhat against A&M or Nebraska. If Texas has a "fluke" win where a bad call clearly should have resulted in a Texas loss, then sure, maybe TCU can leap Texas, but otherwise, I just don't see it. I also am not at all worried about the other scenario some posters have thrown out, where the loser of the SEC title game still stays ahead of Texas in the final BCS poll. There is no precedent for that kind of voting behavior, and I would be completely shocked. The SEC loser could have a slight computer edge over Texas, but they will not have any kind of edge over Texas in the human polls, which is 2/3 of the BCS score.

Bottom line, to reiterate -- Texas wins out, they go to Pasadena.

Here's the updated SOS data on the six undefeateds:

TEAM    CUR SOS   RNK    PROJ SOS   RNK
FLA      0.511     28     0.540     14
ALA      0.530     15     0.559      4
TEX      0.515     26     0.525     20
TCU      0.508     36     0.477     60
Cincy    0.478     61     0.487     51
Boise    0.434     95     0.435     92

At-Large and Bowl Seeding

The picture has become more clear-cut for the at-large bids, with only a handful of teams really in play at this stage. As mentioned in previous weeks, the SEC runner-up and TCU are virtual locks, leaving two at-large spots open. Boise State, Oklahoma State, and a Big 10 two loss team (Penn State and Iowa) are the key contenders. I think Iowa should be the favorite to be a potential Big 10 at large. Penn State has better fan support, but they also lost to Iowa head-to-head, and Iowa's played the better schedule.

Right now, I think Oklahoma State is in good shape if they can beat the Sooners in Norman (hungry fan base that's never been to a bowl game; technically rated higher in BCS than Big 10 contenders; respectable schedule). I would actually seed them ahead of BSU and the Big 10 in the at-large pecking order. If OkSt loses, then Boise and Big 10 become the defacto teams. If OkSt wins, I think Boise may still edge out the Big 10, but this really becomes less about BCS "science" and more about back-room bowl committee dealings, which are impossible to handicap. Having two non-BCS teams is still really a burden, and Boise is ending its season fairly unimpressively (mediocre competition). I'll still give the edge to Boise for now, but I have been wavering on this week by week. Interesting if we start to hear any bowl committee stories leak out to the press in the next week or two.

BCS Bowl Projections
NC: SEC winner vs. Texas
Sugar: SEC runner-up vs. Boise State
Fiesta: TCU vs. Oklahoma State
Rose: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Cincy
This post was edited on 11/22 1:52 PM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 11/22 3:46 PM by SynTex1

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 10

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

3p update with coaches and harris

TCU didn't get as much support as I expected in the Harris poll. I'll stick with them being #4 and Cincy #5, but there's a shot Cincy edges out TCU for #4. Still feel comfortable that Texas will fall to #3.

Original message from Saturday night

Overview

Texas fans can now be fully assured that an undefeated Longhorn team will be playing in Pasadena for the national title. Iowa's loss was clearly the big news, but the Hawkeyes were going to be in trouble, anyway, with some devastating developments on their schedule. The NC title picture is now clear as day, with the only real contenders (barring absolute chaos) being the six undefeated teams: Florida, Alabama, Texas, TCU, Cincy and Boise. The losses by Oregon, Penn State and ND really make the BCS bowl seeding outside of the NC game a lot more complicated. Two at large bids are wide open.

Projected BCS Standings

Alabama will jump Texas tomorrow, after Texas had narrowly jumped Alabama last week. Rick Tellshow, Sam Chi, and yours truly all mis-forecast that Bama would stay #2 last week... a sliver of an edge for Texas in Colley was what sealed the deal... by the narrowest of margins. Won't matter and won't be nearly as close this week, as Alabama will see significant computer re-strengthening by virtue of the win against LSU, as well as other games that favored their schedule. TCU was only slightly behind Cincy last week, and I think there's a good shot they jump Cincy this week. The #4 through #6 spots will be fairly tight, so it wouldn't be surprising if Cincy jumps to #4, for instance.

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. TCU
5. Cincy
6. Boise

Iowa Was Already Doomed

Even if Iowa was able to squeak out another win against a mediocre Big 10 team, their ability to position themselves in the NC picture was greatly impaired. The "strong SOS" that Iowa had earlier in the year (a perfect 1.00 computer score a few weeks ago) was a paper tiger. They benefited from lousy teams exceeding expectations (Iowa State, Arizona, etc.). They also had a big boost by not having the two weakest Big 10 teams on their schedule (Illinois and Purdue). Unfortunately, both benefits came crashing to earth, including Illinois and Purdue starting to beat some of Iowa's opponents. Iowa's top 5 SOS is no more (now down to #26). Even if they win out, they are completely irrelevant in the NC discussion.

SEC Picture Coming Into Focus

Alabama and Florida are on track to meet as undefeated divison winners for what would be a guaranteed NC game seed. Alabama seems highly unlikely to lose before the conference title game (@ MissSt, Chattanooga, @Auburn). Florida may have a potential trap game or two, but also looks likely to remain undefeated (@ South Carolina, FIU, FSU). We're getting late in the year, so if one of these two lost a game but then won the conference, it could get a little dicier to jump the other undefeated teams, but I think they would have a very good shot (Alabama in particular).

Sizing Up the Six Undefeated Teams

With the Hawkeyes out of the picture, the "pecking order" is pretty cut and dry. We are not going to see teams' computer strength change too much as the year goes on, although the SEC teams will strengthen slightly, Texas and TCU will weaken slightly, and Cincy may gain a little ground.

TEAM      CUR SOS  (RNK)   PROJ SOS  (RNK)
FLORIDA    0.535    (21)    0.538     (16)     
ALABAMA    0.562     (7)    0.557      (6)
TEXAS      0.533    (25)    0.521     (32)
TCU        0.502    (42)    0.477     (59)
CINCY      0.454    (67)    0.487     (54)
BOISE      0.431    (90)    0.432     (95)

So if Texas and the SEC winner are undefeated, there is no doubt what the NC game will be. If Florida or Bama lose a game but then win the SEC, I think they have a shot to jump into the #2 spot to play Texas, but I'll admit this is going to get harder to pull off with time running out in the season. If Texas loses, I can't believe I'm saying this, but either TCU or Cincy will play for the NC game (not sure which one... right now I'm thinking TCU, but Cincy may be able to jump ahead as the year goes on). If Texas, TCU and Cincy all lose a game, then Boise has a good shot to play for it all.

BCS Bowl Projections

A lot of teams keep shooting themselves in the foot for BCS bids. I really didn't think it was probable Notre Dame would climb high enough to be a factor in the BCS at large dialogue, but obviously, their stunning loss to Navy means complete elimination. Boise State did not really help their cause with a sloppy win over Louisiana Tech, and I still believe TCU (if they win out), will earn the sole automatic berth for "non-BCS" conferences. Boise is becoming a funky topic. I still think the bowl committees, especially with the difficult economy, are going to emphasize ratings and attendance over looking out for the little guy. Also, the fact Boise has already played in a BCS game may work against them. But there are not a lot of quality at-large contenders out there, and many/most of them have two losses (while BSU would have zero). So, I reluctantly have to acknowledge Boise may be able to secure a BCS bowl bid (unbelievable).

NC: SEC Winner vs. Texas
Fiesta: USC vs. TCU
Sugar: SEC Loser vs. Cincy
Rose: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Orange: George Tech vs. Boise State

Other at large candidates: Oklahoma State, Iowa, Penn State, Miami
This post was edited on 11/8 2:57 PM by SynTex1

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 9

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

7:00p update, with Harris results

Well, my hedge that I declared as being unlikely proved prescient. The win over OkSt did propel Texas higher than I expected in the computers. But the real reason Texas jumped to #2 was less about Texas coming ahead of expectations in the computers, but more about Alabama falling significantly in the computers. The one that really did them in was the surprising three notch drop from #3 to #6 in Wolfe. That basically allowed them to be effectively tied with Texas in the computers.

This may very well be a one-week phenomenon. Alabama, should they defeat LSU next week, will probably jump Texas to go back into the #2 spot. Also, Texas will see its SOS decrease somewhat as the year goes on, while Alabama will see it strengthen.

Glad I was wrong. Very cool for the Horns to be #2 in the BCS for the first time all year, and obviously, very well deserved.

5:00p update, with Harris results

Harris also generally as projected. Doesn't alter my last projection. Really not seeing how Texas jumps to #2. Sometimes, the computers do funky things after a team has a "big" win against a high quality opponent, so I could be underestimating the boost from OKSt, but I don't think it can be enough. Also, maybe Oregon gets slightly more love in the computers than I'm forecasting, which would still mean there's a slight shot they jump Boise. TCU/Cincy at #5/#6 is also a little tight. Big gaps between Florida/Alabama and Texas/Iowa.

11:50a update, with coaches poll results

The top three were within one point of my projection, reiterating my view that Texas will not jump Alabama for the #2 spot (which is apparently what Brad Edwards is projecting). If two or three computers break Texas' way, then they may edge out the Tide, but I still view this as unlikely (but never rule anything out completely). Other modest surprises were the fact that TCU jumped to the #4 spot in the coaches poll. The key that the Horned Frogs learned is winning convincingly, even if against a lousy opponent like uNLV, in a week where lots of votes are in play (given previous #4 USC's loss) can pay off big-time. Boise State really now has an uphill battle to ever jump TCU, because once voters put a team higher on their ballot, it is tough to get them moved back down. Boise's administrators better start greasing the wheels for a non-automatic bid, because they are going to have to make a case to the BCS bowl committees that they can make an invite economically viable.

The other modest surprise was that Oregon did not get as much of a boost with the impressive win over USC. I'm pretty surprised. If a team clobbers the #4 team in the country (and a team that many thought was the best overall, even though they lost to Washington), you would think they might be able to edge out one of the weaker undefeateds. This lack of a boost effectively kills Oregon's chances to really be relevant in the NC discussion (and they had a slim chance at best).

Updated projection changes slightly, but only on the bottom half:

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Iowa
5. TCU
6. Cincy
7. Boise
8. Oregon
9. LSU


Original message from late Saturday night

Overview

A fairly unremarkable Saturday in the NC race, notwithstanding USC's loss to Oregon (which wasn't all that surprising, really). The seven undefeateds remain undefeated. Two from the SEC (Bama and Florida), one from the Big XII (Texas), one from the Big 10 (Iowa), and three from weaker conferences (TCU, Cincy and Boise).

We are still down to the "elite nine," but the Ducks have swapped with the Trojans as the Pac 10 contender. Yet, Oregon faces some substantial hurdles (to be discussed).

My projection as of now:

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Iowa
5. TCU
6. Boise State
7. Oregon
8. Cincy
9. LSU


There is a modest probability Texas might jump Alabama into the #2 spot. I have projected some modest voter appreciation in favor of the Horns (and to the detriment of the Tide) based on a hugely impressive road win against the #14 team in the country. That said, I have been repeatedly surprised by how sticky the votes have been for the Tide (and the Gators) so far this year, and so when push comes to shove, Alabama probably still edges out Texas. But the margin is going to narrow considerably. Also... there is a shot Oregon could jump Boise (for now) in the BCS standings tomorrow, but it's difficult to assess what kind of boost Oregon will get in the human polls

Oregon?? What do we think??

Boise State fans should be pleased -- the big Oregon win against the Trojans puts the "human voters" in an awkward bind. Oregon, if not for the opening day loss in Boise, would be an incredibly strong one-loss contender. They would be in prime position to step in if some undefeated teams stumbled. They have the third most difficult schedule in the country (both current and projected). But... oh wait... they lost to Boise State. And Boise State is still undefeated. Any voter who puts Oregon ahead of Boise on their ballot should be shot, or at least mildly tortured. Much like we Longhorn fans (rightfully) trumpeted "45-35" last year on this message board to emphasize the meaning of a head-to-head victory, that sentiment must be enforced on Boise relative to Oregon. What a bizarre ceiling that hangs over the Ducks... they'd be in prime position to contend for the NC, if not for that loss. The computers will try to look through it, and give them a lot of benefit, but the human votes will keep them generally out of the NC picture. But it's a really strange dynamic, and the fact Oregon may edge out Boise this week will be a testament to how weird of a situation this will be.

Iowa's Fall From Grace

Iowa played yet another sloppy game, and had yet another "gutsy" come from behind win. Fine, let that be the story on which the media fixates. For those that want to look at the numbers, Iowa had a particularly rough weekend. Their opponents played to date had a very mediocre week, going 2-4 (Iowa State, Arkansas State, Michigan, and Michigan State lost, while PSU and Wisconsin won). Their projected schedule (counting all future opponents as well as opponents played to date) fell slightly, from 4th in the country to a still respectable 8th. I do not expect them to gain as many points as they probably should have from the humans this week, considering a lot of USC votes were in play. Iowa missed a real opportunity, and that effort against Indiana is only going to feed the skeptics. Yes, the Ohio State game could be a platform, but Iowa needs to be converting voters now, not later. I view the gap between Iowa and Texas to be too massive. Iowa should see its perfect 1.00 computer score fall this week. I firmly believe if Texas wins out, Iowa will be playing in Pasadena for the Rose Bowl, and not the national championship.

SEC still on track

The SEC schedules got stronger this week. Florida and Alabama remain in prime position (and LSU technically controls its destiny as well). I think even with a loss, the SEC conference winner will be playing for the national title.

What if Texas and Iowa lose

Texas generally held steady for its projected SOS this week, but it's still not good enough to withstand a loss, in my opinion (right now, 30th most difficult schedule in the country). I continue to believe if Texas loses a game, the loss will be too late in the year to overcome, and the North opponent will be too weak to help propel Texas. I also think Iowa has too many perception issues, despite their incredibly strong schedule, to be relevant in the NC discussion should they lose a game. That begs the question... who would play the SEC title winner if both Texas and Iowa stumble? I think TCU and Boise (ugh) would be in good shape, with Cincy not far behind. Do not underestimate how much benefit Boise got by virtue of the Ducks beating the Trojans. Boise's schedule is appalling (94th in the country), but they could become a firm #2/#3 in the event Texas and Iowa lose. TCU has a stronger schedule (68th in the country) and a big match-up against Utah coming up. It's hard to believe, but the BCS-busters may have their say if Texas and Iowa don't take care of business.

Seeding the Bowls

After the 6 BCS conference winners are slotted, that leaves four spots in play. TCU is in prime position to hold off Boise for the automatic "non-BCS" bid, and you have to believe the loser of the Alabama/Florida game also gets a bid. Right now, I think USC and Penn State are probably the other two at-large teams (meaning Boise may get "screwed"). Right now, I would project the bowls as:

NC: Florida vs. Texas
Sugar: Alabama vs. USC
Fiesta: Penn State vs. TCU
Rose: Iowa vs. Oregon
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Cincy

Below is the way the nine contenders rank as far as "current SOS" (W/L records and opp's opponents W/L records played to date) and "projected SOS" (counting all teams on the schedule). Note I now project Nebraska as the North champion, rather than KSU.

TEAM CUR SOS Rk ProjSOS Rk
Florida 0.577 8 0.541 16
Alabama 0.539 23 0.564 7
Texas 0.545 22 0.523 30
Iowa 0.557 15 0.560 8
TCU 0.494 43 0.466 68
Boise St 0.431 86 0.431 94
Oregon 0.594 3 0.576 3
Cincinnati 0.451 72 0.476 59
LSU 0.518 29 0.532 24


If you remain concerned Iowa poses a threat to Texas, and you want Texas to hold off the Hawkeyes in a worst case scenario.... root for the Big XII South against the North (obvious), but root for Nebraska to win the North. Root for Kansas State not to win the North. KSU has a terrible, terrible SOS, with two of their victories coming against sub-FBS teams, while Nebraska has a better resume. I really am not worried about Iowa, but we have lots of wedges between Texas and Iowa in the polls (Boise, TCU, Cincy, etc.) But if those teams all lose, and Iowa tries to pose any kind of threat, however remote, root for KSU not to go to Arlington.
This post was edited on 11/1 12:17 AM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 11/1 11:58 AM by SynTex1
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Regarding Iowa

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

Iowa's perfect 1.00 computer score in today's BCS standings is eye-catching. Some are worried Iowa poses a threat to an undefeated Texas, based mostly on their schedule strength (which as I have noted for weeks, is quite strong). I continue to believe Iowa is not a serious threat to Texas. I will never rule anything out, because anything is possible, and maybe some dynamics unfold over the next few weeks to change the story... but I view it as highly unlikely that Iowa will jump Texas if both teams win out.

1. Iowa has peaked in the computers, and they have nowhere to go but down.

To start, let's use the blunt (but relevant) instrument of strength-of-schedule to understand why Iowa has peaked. The first column is the current SOS through Week 8; the second column is the "projected" SOS counting all opponents on the schedule. The third column is the change, with positive numbers indicating the teams that will strengthen, and negative meaning the opposite. I've sorted it from teams that will strengthen the most to those that will weaken the most. I know some guys (Tellshow in particular) like to forecast how the projected SOS will look if the higher ranked teams win during the rest of the year. I'd rather not make any assumptions, because CFB is inherently an unpredictable game.

TEAM        CUR SOS   PROJ SOS   Chg
Cincinnati   0.406     0.455    0.049 
Southern Cal 0.549     0.566    0.017 
Alabama      0.557     0.564    0.007 
LSU          0.545     0.539   (0.005)
Texas        0.537     0.528   (0.009)
Florida      0.559     0.533   (0.027)
Iowa         0.621     0.582   (0.039)
Boise St     0.464     0.420   (0.043)
TCU          0.526     0.466   (0.060)

Note Iowa's schedule will weaken substantially (0.039 winning percentage points), while Texas will hold generally stable. Also, Texas will eventually jump TCU, USC, etc., in several of the polls. Don't get me wrong.... I expect Iowa will still hold a computer advantage over Texas, but there is no way it will be the massive chasm (1.00 vs. 0.79) it is right now. I also think there is the potential for Alabama to be the #1 team ahead of Iowa if they win out, which further negates Iowa's relative advantage over Texas in the computers.


2. Iowa has played 8 games, while most others have played 7.

That's tangentially related to point 1, because it is slightly inflating Iowa's computer strength, but it's worth pointing out.

3. Iowa can, at best win 12 games, but Texas can win 13.

This is particularly important in Billingsley, based on the way it is computed (it should assure Texas remains ahead of Iowa in Billingsley), but it may help in other computers as well.

4. Iowa will be at home on the couch watching after November 21.

The Big 10 is perpetually hurt by not having late season games. Texas will have the opportunity to play in front of national audiences on Thanksgiving night and in early December in the conference title game. There have been times where a team that has the "last word" hurts themselves by playing poorly (think Cal in 2004 against Southern Miss), but all else equal, you'd like to have the last impression.

5. If you make Iowa a solid #3 because you think teams will lose, this will help Texas in the computers.

I don't think it is going to play out this way, but many are worried that Boise, Cincy, TCU, and USC will all lose a game, making it a clear cut Iowa vs. Texas argument. Clearly, now that Texas no longer has much of a shot to get to the NC game with a loss, we should all put our rally caps on and root for all those contenders, because they are taking votes from the Hawkeyes. But if all those teams lose, that is to Texas' advantage in the computers. As I said earlier, I don't think Iowa will have a perfect 1.00 computer score at the end of the season, but Texas will be much more competitive against Iowa in the computers if there is a scorched earth among the other contenders. And I still don't think Iowa cracks much of a dent in Texas' human vote tally (discussed in the next point). Yes, if Texas is a perfect #2 in the human polls and a perfect #3 in the computers, and Iowa is a perfect #1 in the computers and a perfect #3 in the human polls, it would be a tie. But it's not going to be that clean. Some computers will start going against Iowa (see point 1), and Iowa may not clean up all the #3 votes (think about the Florida/Bama loser... do they throw a wrench into this?).

6. Texas enjoys solid support in the human polls, and votes are very sticky.

Looking at the coaches poll, Texas has 1390 points among 59 voters. We know for a fact that they are getting 4 first place votes. But if you do the math, almost all voters have Texas within the top three of their ballots... almost half of them (about 28 out of 59, by my estimate) have Texas ranked #1 or #2. Some voters will shift based on the latest fad, but a majority of votes are usually pretty sticky, meaning Iowa has an uphill fight in getting much needed support in the human polls. The fact that Iowa ranks a lowly 8th in the coaches poll (behind most of the other contenders) is a reflection of how they are viewed by the voters.

7. Iowa's body of work is... flawed.

It is really hard to get over the near-opening day loss at home against Northern Iowa (blocked FG at the end of the game). UNI is no Appy State. UNI is 5-3 overall, and Southern Illinois and South Dakota State have beaten UNI by more convincing margins than Iowa did. Iowa also played extremely poorly against lowly Arkansas State (2-4). I would like to point out that Louisiana Monroe (a team that Texas thumped) beat ASU by twice the margin that Iowa did, although we know football is not transitive. Iowa has also posted skin of their teeth wins against Michigan and Michigan State, neither of which has really been considered to be strong teams. Maybe Texas stinks up the joint against a KU or an A&M, but in the meantime, Texas' wins have been much more dominating.

8. Everyone believes Texas is the superior team.

There is no mainstream CFB source I am aware of that thinks Iowa goes to the NC unless Texas loses. Because human opinion is crucial in the BCS, when people believe something to be so, they make it so. If we start to hear a meaningful groundswell of people go pro-Iowa, we can start to become concerned.

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 8

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

8:00 p.m. update

Was generally pleased with the accuracy of my computer forecasts, but the two main things I missed:

1) I grossly underestimated how many computers TCU would win over with the victory over BYU
2) I underestimated Iowa's power surge in the computers. I expected a strong showing, but not a perfect 1.00. It didn't matter, I was still correct in putting Iowa at #4. There's still a massive gap between Iowa and Texas.

The new topic is clearly going to be concerns about Iowa. I'm still not concerned. I'll post the details in a separate thread. With the BCS standings out and digested, it's probably logical to let this thread fall (thanks to the mods for pinning!)

3:50 p.m. update

Harris penalized the Trojans a lot more than I was counting on. Still think Iowa clocks in at #4, but Boise may be able to hold off Cincy and USC to stay in the top 5. I know a couple of posters think I might be putting TCU too low, but I'm not sure I see how they can jump much higher than 8th. My projected gap between Southern Cal and TCU is pretty significant. Maybe a couple of computers will swing the Horn Frogs' way.

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Iowa
5. Boise
6. Cincy
7. Southern Cal
8. TCU
9. LSU
10. Oregon

11:30 a.m. update

Final update before the actual release, includes the coaches poll. I then extrapolate Harris, with some minor tweaks to capture their biases. I think it's pretty likely Boise is falling, and they may fall to #7 (depends on Cincy's computer scores and human votes). For those scoring at home, Bama actually gained a point in the coaches poll (unbelievable), while Florida shed five points, and Texas gained four. Not a flattering week for the coaches' poll at all, in my opinion, but it really doesn't matter.

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Iowa
5. Southern Cal
6. Boise
7. Cincy
8. TCU
9. LSU
10. Oregon

10:00 a.m. update

Guys, I'm an idiot. I didn't sort a couple of rows right on my spreadsheet, so I understated where I think USC should be (which is higher). Below is my updated projection. It includes the actual rankings from Sagarin, which generally played out as I expected, although Iowa surprised by getting the #1 ranking in that poll. The margin between BSU, Southern Cal and Iowa is going to be very tight. It's not inconceivable BSU gets jumped by USC and/or Iowa. USC should really be kicking itself... a solid win over Oregon State and they probably would have easily jumped to #4. TCU and Cincinnati probably remain lower in the polls. Also, the gap between Texas and Bama is tighter than I initially expected. Don't think it's too likely, but there is an outside (5%) chance Texas jumps Bama. We'll know a lot more when the coaches poll is released.

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Boise State
5. USC
6. Iowa
7. Cincy
8. TCU
9. LSU
10. Oregon


Original message from last night...

Damn those Hawkeyes. They have been squeaking out many games, week after week, but the TD as time expired on a slant route against Michigan State may have taken the cake. Another close win (on the road), and Iowa remians undefeated, en route to what projects as the 6th most difficult schedule in all of college football. Unfortunately for Iowa, the razor-thin nature of their season could be their undoing for a potential NC bid. Although I believe their computer scores will remain incredibly strong (3rd in the country behind only Florida and Alabama), they will have an uphill fight to jump Texas in the human polls, based on how much they have struggled in so many games. In particular, the near-losses against Arkie State and Northern Iowa are real problems. Iowa remains a headache for many teams that aspire to the NC game, but I view it as highly, highly unlikely that an undefeated Iowa would leapfrog an undefeated Texas in the BCS standings, due mostly to the fact that the Hawkeyes will have an extremely difficult time converting human voters; although they could have an impressive resume of gutsy road wins, the margin of victory is probably going to hold them back.

Projected BCS Standings
I think Texas is going to gain meaningful ground in both the Coaches and Harris polls on the duo of leaders in the SEC, but the computer poll deficit is too wide for Texas to jump to the #2 spot in the BCS standings. I have Cincy and Iowa basically tied in my estimates, but I'm going to bump Iowa ahead of Cincinatti by virtue of playing a stronger opponent. This is the way I would guess the BCS standings look tomorrow afternoon:
'
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Boise State
5. Iowa
6. Cincy
7. USC
8. TCU
9. LSU

Week 8 Developments
There were a lot of close games today, but other than the Canes going down in OT to Clemson, very little changed as far as national title contenders went. Iowa's narrow win assured there will remain seven undefeateds(assuming BSU wins tonight against Hawaii): two from the SEC (Florida/Alabama), one from the Big XII (Texas), one from the Big 10 (Iowa), and three from weaker conferences (Cincy/TCU/Boise). I now think it is best to think of the leading NC candidates in terms of the "elite nine": seven of which are undefeated, and two that have one loss (USC and LSU). The seven undefeateds are clearly in the running because they have yet to lose, USC is in the running because of substantial media support and a fairly strong schedule, and LSU is in the running because it still technically controls its destiny in the SEC conference.

Behind the "elite nine" (which also happen to be the top 9 in the BCS) we have a few contenders that stand ready to step in the mix if chaos ensues (like it did in 2007). These teams includes Oregon, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Penn State, and West Virginia. These teams have only one loss, and respectable schedules, with the opportunity to create noise by winning a big game in the next few weeks (i.e., Okla State beats Texas, Oregon beats USC, WV beats Cincy, etc.). I'm not going to waste your time looking at these "second tier" NC contenders, because that would require chaos. And despite the "gritty" games we are witnessing week by week, the fact of the matter is, the favorites are generally winning, and the leading, dominant teams are taking care of business, even if they are doing it in ugly fashion. If chaos unfolds in the next week or two, we can focus more on the second tier, but in the meantime, we'll focus on the 9 main contenders.

Sizing up the Nine Contenders

I continue to believe the SEC conference winner is almost guaranteed a NC berth. Florida and Bama's lousy efforts against MSU and Tennessee, respectively, may throw a slight curve ball at that argument, but the SEC ranks as the strongest conference in CFB (bar none), and the media generally continues to believe that the SEC winner deserves one of the two NC spots, assuming that winner has only one loss. Florida, Alabama and LSU all control their destiny. Florida has seen its schedule hold firm, while Alabama and LSU have seen their very strong schedules weaken over the last couple of weeks. I don't think it matters too much -- they are still top 20/30 quality schedules. LSU may seem like a stretch, but think about how much love they will be getting if they beat Bama in conference play and Florida in the title game. They will be a lock (not necessarily as the top seed... Texas could earn the #1 ranking in that scenario... but I think they hold off an undefeated Iowa).

I also continue to believe Texas controls its destiny. Tonight's solid effort from Missouri will certainly help. Texas is the default #2/#3 vote on most human ballots, and it will take several squeakers by Texas, combined by impressive wins from Iowa, to change that dynamic. The Texas schedule took it on the chin this week (more on that at the end of this summary), but it is still respectable, meaning Texas will not have a computer detriment that will overcome what should be fairly solid scores on the coaches and Harris polls.

Iowa, assuming they win out (which apparently they might, as shocking as that might seem), is in the catbird's seat if Texas loses. Their schedule is off-the-charts, especially as Arizona and Iowa State continue to exceed expectations. I think it would be borderline criminal if a one-loss USC jumped an undefeated Iowa, especially considering the advantage Iowa will enjoy in the computers. But I know USC is a popular team.

USC needs both Texas and Iowa to lose to get to the NC. There might be some controversy about leaping the weak undefeateds, but USC's schedule is strong, their quality wins would be impressive (many of these coming on the road, including Cal, Oregon, Ohio State and ND), and at the end of the day, I think they would deserve it more than the weak undefeateds.

I'm sorry, I know I give the weak undefeateds little respect, but the math doesn't lie. TCU, Cincy and Boise continue to have terribly weak schedules (as you can see below). Boise has the win over Oregon, but if USC also beats Oregon, that victory loses clout. Cincy still has games against Pitt and WV, so maybe they don't run the table. TCU is being hurt by the fact the MWC is no where near as strong as it was in 2008. If Texas, Iowa and USC all lose, they may become relevant, but I would think the second tier I mentioned earlier (Okla State, GT, etc.) could still jump them. At this point, I think it is a fairly low probability any of these teams will be playing in the NC. The more interesting question will be whether we see two "non-BCS" schools get BCS bids in the same year (TCU and Boise). As other BCS schools continue to pile up losses, that may be an increasing possibility.

Strength of Schedule of the "Elite 9"
Team       CurSOS    ProjSOS   Rank
Florida    0.559     0.533      27
Alabama    0.557     0.564      10
Texas      0.537     0.528      31
Boise      0.464     0.420      96
Cincy      0.406     0.455      77
Iowa       0.521     0.582       6
USC        0.549     0.566       9
TCU        0.526     0.466      68
LSU        0.545     0.539      22

Official Downgrade of a One-Loss Texas' Chances
Texas' SOS took it on the chin this week. As we look ahead, I was expecting a high-quality (Nebraska) North opponent in the conference title game. NU's stunning loss to ISU means that is now fairly remote. I'm literally projecting KSU as the opponent in Arlington, which is depressing on some level. Texas now projects at the 31st most difficult schedule in the country, and they continue to rely on teams such as Louisiana Monroe, Colorado, and UTEP to win games week by week. If you really want to think about a one-loss Texas team's chances, you must think about the reality of losing a game against a South foe (Oklahoma State) that keeps them out of the conference title game altogether, or about how late in the season (against KU in Austin? against A&M in CS?) such a loss would be occurring. Basically, I don't really see a scenario where Texas loses from this point forward, and still gets to the NC game. The loss would be too late, the North opponent would be too weak, or the schedule would not help enough in the computers. If you tell me Texas loses in Stillwater, but they still win the South, and then Iowa, USC, Boise, TCU, and a couple of others all lose, then yes, there's a shot. But basically, it looks like Texas needs to win out to go to have any reasonable probability of playing for it all in Pasadena.

This post was edited on 10/24 11:31 PM by SynTex1
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BCS Projection/Analysis Week 7

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

PROJECTED BCS RANKINGS
It's fairly likely the initial BCS rankings will be:

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas

A large gap will exist between Texas and the #4 team, which will be either Boise State or USC. I didn't spend too much time agonizing over which one will be #4 or #5, as USC will steadily gain strength as the year progresses, and will comfortably outrank BSU if they continue to win out.

UNDEFEATEDS
As I've done every week, let's begin with a tally of the undefeateds. Two more went down this weekend, meaning there are only seven undefeated teams remaining. Two come from the SEC (Alabama and Florida), one from the Big 10 (Iowa), one from the Big XII (Texas), and three from weaker conferences (TCU, Cincy and Boise State).

PUTTING CONTENDERS INTO TRANCHES
I think the easiest way to think about the national title contenders is to put them into tranches: SEC contenders, undefeated contenders, strong one-loss contenders, weak one-loss contenders, and undefeated pretenders.

SEC Contenders
As I discussed last week (and as most CFB fans readily acknowledge), the SEC winner is highly assured to have a seed in the NC game. Alabama and LSU are in particularly strong shape, even with one loss. Florida may have to sweat a little bit of computer weakness in the event they drop a regular season game, but I still believe they would garner at least a #2 BCS ranking when all is said and done.

Team            Conf  AllWins  FBSWins  AllLoss  SOS  ProjSOS  Rank 
 Alabama         SEC      7        7        -    0.572  0.584     4 
 LSU             SEC      5        5        1    0.559  0.564    11 
 Florida         SEC      6        5        -    0.601  0.534    29 

Undefeated Contenders
For the second straight week, the strong undefeated contenders (outside the SEC) are Texas and Iowa. If Texas wins out, they will go to the national title (do not let anyone's foolish reporting convince you otherwise). I will discuss Texas' chances as a one-loss contender later. Iowa's big win in Madison has them in good shape, but they still face a couple of key Big 10 tests. Ohio State going down against Purdue may rob the Hawkeyes of a potential "quality win." Iowa does not get much love by the pundits, and they still have some big games to win, but if they win out, they will very much be a factor in the NC discussion. Iowa boasts a SOS ranking #7 nationally, but note this has been drifting lower over the last few weeks.

 Team            Conf  AllWins  FBSWins  AllLoss  SOS  ProjSOS  Rank 
 Iowa            Big10    7        6        -    0.622  0.571     7 
 Texas           BigXII   6        6        -    0.547  0.541    21 

Strong One-Loss Contenders
Virginia Tech and Ohio State fell out of this group with their losses. Basically, USC is in prime shape here. If USC knocks off Oregon, they will have a multitude of quality wins, and will be in excellent shape should Texas and Iowa stumble. Oregon's schedule ranks very impressively, and if they knock-off USC, they could have a lot of momentum. I would worry about the difficulty of jumping Boise State (which I don't think is a valid contender)... that early season loss by such a significant margin may keep Oregon challenged. Miami is a weaker contender here, as their SOS continues to weaken, but Miami's NC chances went up significantly today with VT's loss to GT. If VT loses another game, Miami can win the ACC outright and be in decent position.

 Team            Conf  AllWins  FBSWins  AllLoss  SOS  ProjSOS  Rank 
 Oregon          Pac10    5        5        1    0.584  0.582     5 
 Southern Cal    Pac10    5        5        1    0.534  0.563    12 
 Miami FL        ACC      5        4        1    0.584  0.538    27 

Weak One-Loss Contenders
GT, Oklahoma State and Penn State could make some noise if they win out, but their schedules are probably not strong enough to make them premiere contenders. Keep an eye on them if chaos prevails among the other contenders.

 Team            Conf  AllWins  FBSWins  AllLoss  SOS  ProjSOS  Rank 
 Georgia Tech    ACC      6        5        1    0.578  0.511    41 
 Oklahoma St     BigXII   5        4        1    0.461  0.509    42 
 Penn State      Big10    6        5        1    0.483  0.509    43 

Undefeated Pretenders
TCU, Cincy and Boise State's schedules are simply too weak to merit serious NC consideration, and they do not appear to have enough voter support to help offset what will become a substantial computer detriment.

 Team            Conf  AllWins  FBSWins  AllLoss  SOS  ProjSOS  Rank 
 TCU             MWC      6        5        -    0.521  0.467    64 
 Cincinnati      BigE     6        5        -    0.415  0.444    77 
 Boise St        WAC      6        5        -    0.483  0.418    96 

What if Texas loses a game
If Texas loses a game (but is still able to win the Big XII), I think they might have an outside shot to still get back in the NC picture. With the SEC locking up one spot in the NC game, Texas would probably need the following teams to lose:

Iowa
USC
Oregon (presumably losing to USC>

I know a lot of you might roll your eyes. "Texas hasn't proven anything." "Texas hasn't played a great schedule." That might be true, but it's turning into a chaotic year in college football. There's not a lot of quality teams out there right now. If you eliminate all teams with two losses, the fact that we can really only talk about a dozen legitimate contenders in mid-October is saying something. Honestly, Texas could still be in contention as long as the loss doesn't occur too late (hopefully not in November) and doesn't keep them from going to Dallas to win the Big XII. Oklahoma State could be a backbreaker, as that is really the best quality opponent remaining on Texas' schedule, and a loss in Stillwater could keep Texas from winning the South.

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 6

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

With almost half the college football season behind us, the picture is becoming clearer for the universe of contenders for a berth in the national championship.

The remaining undefeateds
There are only nine undefeated teams remaining in the FBS: two of them from the SEC (Florida and Alabama), two of them from the Big XII (Texas and Kansas), two of them from the Big East (USF and Cincy), one from the Big 10 (Iowa), and two of them from "non-BCS" schools (Boise and TCU).

The SEC is in prime position
With LSU failing to knock-off the top ranked Gators, it is looking increasingly probable that Florida will take an undefeated record into the SEC championship game. Alabama appears equally strong. If LSU can claw its way back into relevance by stunning Alabama and then knocking off Florida in a potential re-match, they would also be in prime shape. With the SEC posting off-the-charts dominance in its out-of-conference performance (albeit against some weaker competition), and with the conference's national perception of strength surging through the roof, it is clear that the SEC winner is almost guaranteed a bid in the NC game. A one-loss Florida gets a tad dicey with the weaker schedule, but the voter love probably keeps them solidly in the top 2. The only way I envision the SEC doesn't get a NC game spot? If chaos reigns... resulting in the SEC winner having two losses.

Team           Conf    AllWins FBSWins AllLoss  SOS     ProjSOS
Alabama        SEC        6       6       0     0.583     0.597
LSU            SEC        5       5       1     0.557     0.574
Florida        SEC        5       4       0     0.609     0.530

Strongly positioned undefeated teams
Texas effectively controls its destiny by having entrenched 2nd/3rd place votes in a population of contenders that have at least one loss. If Texas wins out, they are going to Pasadena. It might seem hard to believe, but with an undefeated record, a very solid resume, and one of the strongest schedules in the country, Iowa is also in a decent position and could be a key beneficiary of a Texas loss (if you believe Iowa is capable of knocking off the Buckeyes and winning out).

We have seen solid strengthening in Texas' projected SOS over the last two weeks, and the computers will increasingly move in Texas' favor, particularly over the next three weeks. In addition, one of the biggest allies Texas might have is the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Nebraska is putting together a solid season and can be considered in the driver's seat for the North by beating Mizzou. If Nebraska comes into Dallas with a potential 11-1 or 10-2 type record, that could be a real platform game for Texas (if they need it).

I think this is less true for Iowa, but I think Texas can still have an outside shot of the NC game if they lose a game. However, I think Missouri is the only game they might be able to lose. Failing to beat OU would pretty much kill Texas' chances. Losing in Stillwater would also pretty devastating, given the timing later in the season, along with the fact it would be a head-to-head loss against a South foe.

Team           Conf    AllWins FBSWins AllLoss  SOS     ProjSOS
Iowa           Big10      6       5       0     0.608     0.588
Texas          BigXII     5       5       0     0.504     0.554   

One loss teams in solid position
If Texas and Iowa suffer losses, I'd rank the teams with one loss that benefit the most in the following order:

Southern Cal has a big win over Ohio State, a very strong schedule, an earlier season loss to Washington, and the potential for a lot of quality wins. They are in great shape if a couple of teams in front of them can lose.

Virginia Tech also has a good resume, very solid schedule, an early loss (first game of the year) against a very good team... here's the unique thing that holds VT back... if Bama wins the SEC, will people really want to see a Bama/VT rematch? Probably not.

Ohio State suffered a last minute loss to a very good team, and has a reasonably difficult schedule. If USC can fall back with two or more losses, it removes a ceiling over tOSU and they can be in contention again.

Oregon has really started to play impressive football, and a win over USC would turn a lot of heads. They have to fight the problem of having lost to BSU, however. Although they've got a lot going in their favor, they'd probably be helped if BSU could lose a game or two.

Miami has a problem in that their schedule has peaked, and will weaken considerably over the next few weeks. They also get hurt if their marquee wins over OU, FSU, and GT get impaired if those teams continue to struggle. Additionally, they are behind the 8-ball in winning the ACC, given the loss to VT.

A one loss Texas probably gets slotted behind Ohio State and in front of Oregon in this pecking order, but it hinges greatly on when and to whom they lose.

Team           Conf    AllWins FBSWins AllLoss  SOS     ProjSOS
Southern Cal   Pac10      4       4       1     0.539     0.585
Oregon         Pac10      5       5       1     0.567     0.576
Virginia Tech  ACC        5       5       1     0.726     0.573
Ohio State     Big10      5       5       1     0.573     0.569
Miami FL       ACC        4       3       1     0.655     0.547

Teams with an uphill battle
Undefeateds South Florida, TCU, Cincy and Boise are all really hurt by absolutely atrocious schedules, and they face an uphill battle in getting voters to believe they deserve a spot in the NC title game. Unless we start seeing losses pile up with all the other contenders, I continue to believe they are largely irrelevant. BCS conference members like Nebraska, KU, OkSt, PSU, and South Carolina all have respectable schedules and one lone loss. If they run the table and win their conferences, they can become a factor, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there. Notre Dame could turn heads by beating USC, and their schedule is decent (not great, but decent). They could certainly propel themselves higher in the pecking order with a win.

Team           Conf    AllWins FBSWins AllLoss  SOS     ProjSOS
Nebraska       BigXII     4       4       1     0.582     0.544
Notre Dame     Ind        4       4       1     0.525     0.541
South Carolina SEC        5       4       1     0.441     0.532
Penn State     Big10      5       4       1     0.434     0.515
Kansas         BigXII     5       4       0     0.407     0.499
Oklahoma St    BigXII     4       3       1     0.424     0.491
South Florida  BigE       5       3       0     0.258     0.473
TCU            MWC        5       4       0     0.471     0.446
Cincinnati     BigE       5       4       0     0.363     0.430
Boise St       WAC        5       4       0     0.449     0.410

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 5

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

After hearing a member of the media recently say, "Florida can probably lose to LSU but still compete for a national championship"... (a pathetic attempt to sandbag for the almighty Tebow)... it got me thinking... is that really true?

Probably. But only because the voter love (and the valid perception that the SEC is a tough conference) really works in Florida's favor. However, it could get dicey for the Gators down the stretch if they lost a game, as the computers are really not going to be their ally. In addition to playing an out-of-conference schedule that is looking more appalling by the week (Florida State, Charleston Southern, Troy and FIU), the Gators played an easier version of the SEC West in 2009, missing out on ranked Auburn, Ole Miss and Alabama. Of course, Florida would potentially play Bama in the SEC championship, but even when factoring that in, their resume (purely by the numbers) would pale in comparison when sized up against other one-loss contenders. But I'm not naive to the love. If Florida wins the SEC, even with a blemish in Baton Rouge, they would probably go to Pasadena.

Here's my way of grouping the contenders at this point:

Undefeated teams that can afford to lose a game:
LSU and Alabama are in this group. They have brutal schedules, and they could drop a regular season game, but win the SEC championship game (presumably against Florida) and easily punch their ticket to the NC. They are in very good shape. Reluctantly, the media love also means Florida falls into this camp.

Undefeated teams that probably can't lose a game, but don't count them out:
This is where I put Texas, along with Iowa and Auburn. In the case of Texas, their human "perception" could help them alleviate what is a less impressive SOS (but not as bad as many on this board think), but the lack of potential high profile wins could hurt the Horns. I wouldn't rule the Horns out if they lose to a Missouri or Oklahoma State type game. You'd need a half dozen or so games to break Texas' way, but crazier things have happened. Iowa and Auburn have fairly difficult schedules, but they don't have the "cache" with the humans... but they could still contend with a one-loss record.

Undefeated teams that can probably get to Pasadena if they stay undefeated, but can't lose a game:
Wisconsin, Missouri, Kansas. Lower on the totem poll, but come from decent conferences. Schedules and cache keep them out with a loss, though.

Undefeated teams that really have little chance:
USF, TCU, Cincy and Boise State. Uphill battles on the perception of the toughness of their schedules, and the math pretty much supports it.

One-loss teams that are in prime position to compete:
USC, Ohio State, Oregon, Virginia Tech, and Miami They have some big games yet to play (less true with tOSU, but the PSU game will still be big), and their schedules rank fairly well. Although Miami has played a strong schedule to date, there will be a strong drop-off in their numbers from here on out. However, if OU gets its act together and still wins 9 or 10 games, the Miami victory over OU could really help their cause. Miami is probably marginal in this category.

This is always a fun time of year. What seems obvious in early October can be turned on its head. Except in 2005. Yeah... that was pretty nice the way that worked out. Let's go with 2005 if we can.

Team            Wins   FBSWins  Loss     SOS     ProjSOS
LSU               5       5       0     0.553     0.619
Iowa              5       4       0     0.646     0.613
Alabama           5       5       0     0.569     0.606
Southern Ca       4       4       1     0.547     0.603
Ohio State        4       4       1     0.587     0.595
Oregon            4       4       1     0.565     0.587
Auburn            5       5       0     0.470     0.568
Virginia Te       4       4       1     0.703     0.563
Texas             4       4       0     0.525     0.542
Wisconsin         5       4       0     0.482     0.539
Florida           4       3       0     0.488     0.530
Penn State        4       4       1     0.505     0.528
Miami FL          3       3       1     0.667     0.522
Missouri          4       3       0     0.320     0.511
Kansas            4       3       0     0.416     0.500
South Flori       5       3       0     0.277     0.478
TCU               4       3       0     0.446     0.438
Cincinnati        5       4       0     0.349     0.424
Boise St          5       4       0     0.408     0.386

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 4

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

In the next couple of weeks, we will be able to start to get more granular and look at computer polls, as well as the Harris rankings. In the meantime, focusing on strength of schedule ("SOS") makes the most sense.

1. The number of undefeateds fell dramatically this week, with only 17 remaining. Four come from the SEC, and four come from the Big XII, so only two NC contenders could emerge from those 8. Three surprisingly come from the Big 10, but they weren’t the breadwinners we were expecting (Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin), and none of the three seems likely enough to win out, although crazier things have happened. Two come from the Big East (Cincinnati and USF), but the former has one of the worst SOS imaginable, while the latter lost its starting QB for the season. The Pac 10 has only one undefeated remaining, but few would expect UCLA to run the table. The remaining three are the so-called “BCS Busters” of TCU, Boise and Houston, but considering they have the three worst SOS outside of Cincinnati, their odds to compete against undefeateds is slim at best.

Team    AllWins FBSWins AllLoss   SOS    ytpSOS  ProjSOS 
Iowa        4      3       -     0.856   0.577   0.638 
LSU         4      4       -     0.587   0.610   0.609 
Alabama     4      4       -     0.528   0.598   0.589 
Wisconsin   4      3       -     0.313   0.636   0.566 
Auburn      4      4       -     0.382   0.611   0.563 
UCLA        3      3       -     0.396   0.588   0.555 
Michigan    4      4       -     0.601   0.527   0.544 
Texas       4      4       -     0.463   0.571   0.543 
Missouri    4      3       -     0.313   0.590   0.543 
Kansas      4      3       -     0.468   0.561   0.538 
Florida     4      3       -     0.539   0.530   0.528 
S Florida   4      2       -     0.246   0.552   0.464 
Texas A&M   3      3       -     0.248   0.495   0.439 
TCU         3      2       -     0.511   0.420   0.437 
Cincinnati  4      3       -     0.422   0.399   0.407 
Boise St    4      4       -     0.488   0.326   0.383 
Houston     3      2       -     0.438   0.323   0.348

2. Texas is holding steady with a 0.543 projected SOS, not the world-beating SOS it had last year, but not entirely terrible, either. While I guess I could get concerned about Iowa having a really strong showing in SOS at this early stage, or UCLA projecting slightly higher than Texas at this point, let’s face it: until a barrage of one-loss teams say otherwise, this is heading toward an SEC vs. Big XII national title match-up. Also note the Texas and Florida SOS above do not include the boost from a potential conference championship game.



3. To confirm what others have said on this board, Texas is not well-positioned if they lose a game. Take a look at the SOS of key one-loss contenders. It’s not a pretty picture. And that doesn't include the potential one-loss LSU, Bama, and the like. Barring complete chaos (which has happened, with 2007 being most notable), Texas has slim chances to play for the national title with a loss. Not impossible, but slim.

Team    AllWins FBSWins AllLoss   SOS    ytpSOS  ProjSOS 
Georgia     3      3       1     0.654    0.605   0.619 
Ohio State  3      3       1     0.535    0.650   0.616 
Oregon      3      3       1     0.699    0.576   0.610 
USC         3      3       1     0.536    0.633   0.609 
Oklahoma    2      1       1     0.426    0.611   0.570 
Virg Tech   3      3       1     0.823    0.431   0.549

4. In what seemed a little surprising to me, the Big XII jumped the Pac10 and Big10 this week to become the second “strongest” conference in football, based purely on out-of-conference results. The SEC is a juggernaut at this stage, posting a very impressive 18-2 FBS win/loss record. I do suspect the SEC has played a softer schedule, and I will analyze that at some point, but it probably makes sense to wait to see how teams begin to play within their own conference before you can express judgment on how “strong” an out-of-conference schedule is. But let’s just put it this way: as tired as I get of hearing the SEC love nationally, we just have to grin and bear it, and agree. For now, the numbers don’t lie: the SEC is kicking major ass, it is the best conference in football, and whomever wins that conference should earn a spot in the NC game.

         AllWins FBSWins AllLoss  Win % 
SEC        23      18      2      0.900 
BigXII     32      23     10      0.697 
Pac10      19      15      7      0.682 
Big10      24      18      9      0.667 
BigE       21      12      7      0.632 
MWC        16      10     11      0.476 
ACC        19      10     13      0.435 
WAC        13       7     15      0.318 
USA        16       7     17      0.292 
SunB        8       5     19      0.208 
MAC        13       7     29      0.194

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 3

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

The USC loss today... was huge.... the fact the tOSU/USC winner went down in the following week is impossible to understate.

If Texas wins out, they are highly likely in.

There are only 29 (out of 120) undefeated teams left in FBS after a mere three weeks of action, and many of these teams are "pretenders." Below, you'll see the way the remaining undefeated teams are ranked, by order of most difficult schedule (projecting with all teams on their schedule, and obviously this is very early).

OK, so based on SOS, Texas is very middle of the pack. Yes, if you want to sweat out the fact PSU and Cal have stronger schedules (at this point), that might be a slight concern. Yes, the Big XII is not doing all that great (ranking 4th among the six major BCS conferences). But with USC losing today, the human votes are likely to remain entrenched with Florida and Texas until either team loses. Cal and PSU have an uphill battle on the human vote front.

Cal and PSU may be incremental "threats," but basically, I think Texas controls its destiny. Which may not have been entirely true when USC was undefeated.

******UNDEFEATED TEAMS (RANKED BY PROJ-SOS)******
Team          SOS  ProjSOS 
California   0.678  0.637 
Iowa         0.875  0.637 
Arizona St   0.222  0.625 
LSU          0.738  0.618 
Alabama      0.631  0.611  
Wisconsin    0.427  0.593 
UCLA         0.372  0.591 
Miami FL     0.917  0.581 
Auburn       0.598  0.572 
Indiana      0.489  0.571 
Penn State   0.467  0.564 
Michigan     0.524  0.540 
Kansas       0.467  0.539 
Texas        0.389  0.537 
Kentucky     0.148  0.532 
So Florida   0.154  0.530 
Pittsburgh   0.487  0.523 
No Carolina  0.694  0.522 
Mississippi  0.111  0.518 
Missouri     0.500  0.516 
Florida      0.400  0.511 
Cincinnati   0.578  0.456 
Texas A&M    0.190  0.429 
Hawai`i      0.515  0.398 
TCU          0.333  0.393 
Houston      0.476  0.385 
Sou Miss     0.417  0.371 
Boise St     0.511  0.367 
Colorado St  0.318  0.361 

******CONFERENCE RANKINGS (OUT OF CONF GAMES)******
         AllWins FBSWins  AllLoss  Win % 
SEC        19      14         2    0.875 
Pac10      19      15         6    0.714 
Big10      24      18         8    0.692 
BigXII     23      17         9    0.654 
BigE       16       9         5    0.643 
ACC        17       9        10    0.474 
MWC        13       7        11    0.389 
USA        13       6        13    0.316 
WAC         9       5        12    0.294 
SunB        8       5        16    0.238 
MAC        11       6        25    0.194

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 2

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

First of all, let it be said: it’s highly unusual for there to be three undefeated BCS conference teams at the end of the year. It’s only happened once in the BCS era (2003), and most “controversies” have usually occurred when multiple one-loss teams are vying for a bid. So basically, it would be very unusual to see three or four undefeated teams at the end of the year. And it’s therefore not even really worth worrying about… yet.

But, if you believe the major contenders will win out, then yes, USC could become a problem. Will USC gain some “human” votes tomorrow? Yes. Will they have stronger computer rankings than Texas in a few weeks? At this stage, it looks like the answer is yes. Projecting ahead with all opponents (but bearing in mind this data includes only two whopping weeks of football), USC is well positioned relative to the other major contenders.

And with the Big 10 maddeningly eeking out wins (by the skin of their teeth) out of conference, they are now the second strongest conference in the country (for now). Which means PSU could also compete stronger in the computers than we would have initially expected.

Yes, the fact that OU and OSU have fallen from grace is less than ideal. Yes, the fact CU, UCF and UTEP are sucking beyond expectations is not good. But, I like how Texas’ schedule sets up later in the year, closing out with what is looking like a pretty good KU team, an improved A&M team, and a potentially strong north team in the title game (leaving a better “last impression,” which we learned last year is important). No, the Texas schedule is not as strong as it was in 2008, but it only matters to the extent the human vote gets down to razor thin margins… and we just have no idea.

So there’s just not really any good reason to be concerned (yet).
A) It’s very early
B) I really don’t believe we’ll have three or more undefeated teams
C) if schedule quality becomes a hot debate, Florida isn’t exactly in a great position, either
D) at least we really don’t have to worry about the three-way tie Big XII south scenario anymore (assuming all 3 teams have one conference loss in a round-robin, Texas would only have one loss total, while OU and OSU would have two total losses).

Early number crunching follows. SOS does not include potential conference championship games.

Major Contenders’ Projected SOS (with all opponents on schedule included)
Bama    0.615
LSU     0.614
USC     0.594
PSU     0.556
Miss    0.542
Texas   0.476
Florida 0.465
BYU     0.400

Conference Power Rankings (OOC win percentage)
SEC      0.818 
Big10    0.813 
BigXII   0.647 
Pac10    0.636 
BigE     0.571 
MWC      0.545 
ACC      0.462 
WAC      0.273 
SunB     0.231 
MAC      0.227 
USA      0.200

Preseason Look at BCS/Strength of Schedule

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

Overview
▪ Despite an appalling out-of-conference schedule, Texas projects in the middle of the pack in terms of its schedule strength (“SOS”), when compared to the consensus preseason Top 10 teams.

▪ Texas played the nation’s most difficult schedule in 2008, but its 2009 schedule is significantly easier (36th out of 120 FBS schools).

▪ The main risk Texas faces in keeping its SOS respectable for BCS posturing purposes is the strength of the Big XII, which was essentially tied with the SEC in 2008 as the best conference in football.

▪ Although a repeat of 2008 seems unlikely, Texas is very poorly positioned for another 3-way tie in the Big XII South (presumably between Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State), as the other teams possess far stronger schedules.


I. Top 10 SOS Analysis
As followers of the BCS know very well, the computer rankings contribute 1/3 of a team’s BCS calculation, and those computers are highly influenced by a team’s win/loss record and SOS. To analyze the contenders for the preseason, I have projected each team’s SOS. To be technical, I analyzed each team's opponents W/L records and opponents’ opponents W/L records using their 2009 schedule, but with the team records posted in 2008 (including bowls, and excluding non-FBS victories). Using the top 10 contenders based on a consensus of preseason polls, I arrive at the following:

Team Schedule Rankings (Overall SOS, out of 120 FBS teams)
1. Oklahoma State (2)
2. Oklahoma (5)
3. Virginia Tech (12)
4. Texas (36)
5. Florida (38)
6. Southern Cal (53)
7. Ohio State (69)
8. Penn State (89)
9. Mississippi (95)
10. Alabama (98)

Note that the above does not include potential conference championship games, which would be expected to improve SOS for teams such as the Big XII, SEC and ACC contenders. Clearly, the Big XII is in the catbirds seat based on this projection, with the SEC teams at a disadvantage (Alabama is a serial offender of having a terrible schedule, and 2009 is no exception). Southern Cal, despite playing Ohio State, is hampered by the recent weakness of its home conference.


II. Understanding Texas’ 2009 SOS
The main risk, of course, of using 2008 data for a 2009 preseason projection is that teams are materially different from year to year. The team in particular that jumps out on Texas’ schedule is Texas Tech, which posted a 9-2 (excluding 2 non-FBS victories) record, but seems highly unlikely to repeat such a strong record given personnel losses. With that said, Texas’ 2009 schedule is expected to be significantly less impressive than 2008, by virtue of four terrible non-BCS opponents out of conference:

Texas Longhorns 2009 Out-of-conference Schedule (2008 W/L)
Louisiana Monroe (3-8)
Wyoming (3-8)
UTEP (5-7)
Central Florida (3-8)

These schools are even worse because they have posted sub-0.500 records in particularly weak conferences (captured in their opponents’ opponents calculations). So as an example, even though UTEP posted a 5-7 record and A&M posted a 4-8 record, the latter is actually less harmful to strength-of-schedule because A&M played much more difficult opponents than UTEP.

Obviously, Texas would appreciate help from Louisiana Monroe, Wyoming, UTEP and Central Florida if they would outperform their 2008 mediocrity. But I suspect as you see these teams pop up on the score ticker when you are watching a game on a Saturday, you’ll tend to see them on the losing end. If any kind of BCS horserace develops as the year goes on, it will be imperative for these teams to at least tread water in their weaker conferences.


III. Can the Big XII repeat its excellence?
Texas played four top-10 quality teams consecutively in 2008, which tremendously helped its national credibility. But how did this happen? Quite simply, the Big XII posted a very strong out-of-conference record (indicated below), allowing more of its teams to have higher quality (at times undefeated) records later in the season.

2008 Conference Rankings (out-of-conference winning percentage)
1. SEC (0.723)
2. Big XII (0.711)
3. Big East (0.650)
4. Mountain West (0.629)
5. ACC (0.614)
6. Big Ten (0.571)
7. Pac 10 (0.500)
8. WAC (0.343)
9. Conference USA (0.319)
10. MAC (0.316)
11. Sun Belt (0.224)

The main risk I worry about is that the Big XII does not keep up with its lofty 2008 standards. As a result of the terrible out-of-conference schedule discussed earlier, it could leave Texas vulnerable in competing against other teams. These concerns would be more pressing in the case of one-loss contenders jockeying for position. I also would be shocked to see the Pac 10 post a terrible year like they did in 2008 (where they merely broke even out of conference, which is one of the worst achievements ever for a BCS conference). Any upside posted by the Pac 10 would be very helpful to contenders such as USC and Oregon, especially since they play 9 conference games on their schedule (compared to 8 for most other teams).


IV. What about a 3-way tie?
My point on the 3-way tie scenario in the Big XII South can be fairly brief: Texas has really put itself behind the eight ball relative to the schedules of Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. With Oklahoma playing Miami, Tulsa and BYU out-of-conference, and with Oklahoma State playing Georgia, Houston and Rice, it appears they will have huge advantages on SOS which will pad their computer stats. Of course, if Texas and Oklahoma were the highest ranked teams (as they were last year, with Tech ranked third) in this three way tie, the human vote may favor Texas as they would compensate for Texas getting the short end of the stick in 2008. For what it’s worth, I think lighting hitting twice on this controversy is unlikely.


V. Final Thoughts
Mack Brown indicated that they would talk to BCS experts during this offseason to try and get a better sense of what they can do better in the future. We will grant the Texas Athletic Department that modifying the 2009 schedule in the spring of 2009 is nearly impossible given the short time frame, but for future reference…. This season’s schedule is exactly what not to do for the BCS. As I said earlier, it is needlessly putting Texas behind the 8-ball. One does not have to schedule Ohio State type teams every year to help their cause in the BCS. There is a middle ground. But scheduling 4 non-BCS teams with a combined record of 14 wins and 31 losses?

Most FBS teams believe in having one or two cupcakes on their schedule, and that is fine. But to put itself in better position to compete in the BCS, without necessarily risking an early season loss, Texas should either be scheduling middle to lower rung BCS conference opponents (4-8 to 7-5 type records, programs the stature of Minnesota, Louisville, etc.), or middle to higher end non-BCS schools (9-3 type records in weak conferences, such as Tulsa, Air Force, etc.).

I know one big counterargument: teams like Central Florida that had been moderately decent a few years ago have gotten worse since then. It’s hard to predict what will be a decent team three years from now. But you can’t tell me anyone thought Wyoming, Louisiana Monroe, UTEP and UCF was ever expected to be considered a half-way decent schedule.

You get the sense something slipped through the cracks. I can’t fully remember, but maybe a team backed out of their commitment to playing Texas this year. But if Mack is serious about taking a look at the BCS, there needs to be a major change in the scheduling philosophy.
This post was edited on 7/9 4:29 PM by SynTex1

BCS 2008 Post Mortem (from a still hurting Longhorn)

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

On a random April Saturday, sitting and watching the NFL draft, an unexpected painful memory was put in front of us. When Michael Crabtree got selected, there it was again for everyone to see, twisting the knife. His “highlight” for which he had become famous. Three different angles on the replay. The mind-boggling breakdown in coverage between two defenders that not only ruined what could have been an undefeated regular season, but also became the first bizarre incident in a three way tie nightmare that ended excruciatingly for Texas.

Frankly, a lot of the days since that point in time, I’ve really tried to just forget about what happened. It was such a cruel convergence of events that ultimately kept the Horns behind the Sooners in that crucial weekend of the BCS rankings. Yes, so another dramatic Longhorn postseason win, this time against the Buckeyes, was a good consolation prize. But now that six months have passed since “Black Sunday,” I’m going to try and take a look back, as objectively as possible, at why the BCS played out the way I did.

I would like to begin by apologizing to you all, as I did that day when it became clear Texas was not going to pull it out. I am sorry that my final BCS prediction -- as many caveats and contingencies as I placed on it late the night before -- was wrong. No doubt, I was much more confident in calling Texas over Cal in 2004, as the computer lead for Texas was substantial, the math was clear cut, and the number of swayed voters needed was minimal. The 2008 Texas/OU call was much more to the wire. So late on that Saturday night, after the dust had settled after the Sooners beat the Cowboys, I made my call. But when I woke up bright and early the next morning, and saw that the Sagarin poll had gone in the Sooners’ favor, I knew that my prediction was in serious jeopardy. Although I kept it my original prediction on the board “for the record,” I essentially indicated at that point on Sunday morning the Horns faced an uphill battle they were unlikely to win.

So what the heck happened? Why was it this close and why did it not work out for Texas? The following should hopefully shed some light. The reality is that many of these factors, by themselves, would not have propelled OU ahead of Texas… it was the fateful combination of a lot of these factors that came together at the very last moment in OU’s favor, allowing them to face the impotent Missouri Tigers in a joke of a conference title game, and ultimately gain a seed in the national title game.

So let’s begin. This is a lot to chew on.

“Exit Polling” Failed as a Reliable Indicator
Two-thirds of the BCS, as you know, is driven by the “human” voters, the coaches and Harris polls. For weeks leading up to the final weekend, the Big XII three way tie scenario had become abundantly clear to the press. Dozens of hours were spent nationally on ESPN Gameday, sports radio, talk shows, and other forums about the “what ifs.” What if Texas and OU were locked in a three way tie with Texas Tech? Given this media dialogue was an excellent way to keep a finger on the pulse of voter sentiment, especially for the media-influenced Harris Poll, I closely followed these shows. I don’t have a scientific tracking to present, but I assure you that the vast majority of media that commented on this issue indicated Texas should be ranked ahead of OU, with the 45 to 35 outcome in Dallas being cited. Even at midnight, when the ESPN commentators provided their final take, this sentiment was still strong. So that influenced my subjective prediction on the human vote. Yes, Texas did pick up human votes in the final week, so the directionality of the movements indicated this was not an unreasonable expectation. Unfortunately, the magnitude of the human vote movement was below what I expected.

What Have You Done for Me Lately?
The obvious lesson is the later you impress the voters, the better. Texas had an uphill battle by having its win over OU occur in the first half of the year. OU’s win over Tech was much more recent, and even though the Texas/OU game was on a neutral field, while OU’s win over Tech was in their own friendly confines, and the Texas loss to Tech was in a hostile environment, voters tend to favor recency.

Strength of Schedule Becomes an S.O.S.
During the season’s final weeks, OU’s schedule was only going to get stronger, and Texas’ was going to get weaker. Clearly, when OU still had to play Tech and OSU, while Texas was playing KU and A&M, the advantages were sizable in OU’s favor. However, with about two weeks remaining before the crucial BCS vote, I still believed that Texas would hold OU off in the computers given the fact their SOS would remain slightly better than OU. Unfortunately, a string of horrible luck began to unfold, where Longhorn opponents were losing, and Sooner opponents were winning. In fact, in the last two weeks of the season, 10 games went OU’s way, with only 5 games going Texas’ way (one we’ll talk more about in a minute). Clearly, the strength of schedule consideration, which had been substantially pro-Texas for most of the year, basically fell apart at crunch time.

"Cosmetics" of OU Victory over OSU
The OU win was not necessarily convincing. In fact, in the fourth quarter, the score was 44-41, and OSU had significant momentum. Unfortunately, the game began to fall apart, and OU ultimately prevailed 61-41, including an almost comical touchdown within the game’s last minute. Do not misconstrue what I say: OU was clearly the better team, and they posted a solid win. However, the 20 point margin did not really capture how close the game was, and for the human polls’ lazier voters who did not see the game, that misleading final score may have resulted in some (and we may mean very incremental) benefit to OU at Texas’ expense.

A Fateful Kick in Lincoln
Colorado at Nebraska was a crucial game in deciding the BCS, because it was a pure match-up between a Texas opponent and an Oklahoma opponent. Nebraska kicked an amazing field goal as time expired to win the game. I have had a lot of time to study this. Several of the computers were very close. I know for a fact OU would have been one notch lower in Colley if the score were reversed. I actually contacted all of the computer polls’ creators to ask them, hypothetically, what their poll would have looked like if they were reversed. A few were friendly, a few never responded, but all indicated that they would not recalculate, just to see. In fact, one even said he would not be able to go back and re-run it. Considering how important their calculations are to the seeding of the national championship, I definitely think the “audit trail” for recalculating their results is questionable (with the exception of Colley Matrix). But I digress. The main point is a Colorado win would have gone a long way to have cut down the OU computer lead. A few human voters would probably have had to switch as well, but it’s another heartbreaking element of the way the BCS unfolded.

Parting Thoughts
Texas was doomed early Sunday morning. As I mentioned, when Sagarin came out pro-OU at the crack of dawn, it was all over. As a Longhorn fan, it was a sickening feeling to realize that despite all of the anticipation, the arguments, the analysis, and the fruitless rooting interests in peripheral games, it was all over.

What about the 45-35 campaign? There were a lot of good talking points and great coverage, but it’s pretty much impossible to tell if it convinced any voters, or irritated them. Let me just say this: with a three-way tie, it is a function that cannot be solved, and so subjective tiebreakers must instead be used. I’m not going to be intellectually dishonest and say I don’t understand why OU got the edge. They were a strong team, they made a good case, and they had a lot of things go in their favor. Who knows, maybe in some cosmic Karma phenomenon, perhaps Texas had drawn too much and was due to get hosed. After the 2004 drama (Okla St comeback, KU comeback, Rose Bowl Bid, VY show), 2005 magical season (Okla St comeback and the greatest national championship of all time), and countless Colt McCoy comebacks in 2006 through 2008, we have been blessed as a fan base. Maybe it was time to pay the piper. But man... it still hurts.