12:30p Update with Coaches poll
Texas did 20-30 points better than my intentionally conservative estimate. Even if TCU gets every single #2 vote in the Harris, and even if the computers don't break Texas' way in the computers on the ones I mention below, Texas still has a healthy lead over TCU and Cincy. Same is true if Cincy got every #2 in Harris and Texas got #3 (but that's REALLY far fetched anyway).
Texas is going to Pasadena.
9:08 Update with Sagarin
I can't say I'm entirely surprised, but Texas came in one notch lower than I expected in Sagarin. This is usually the only poll we have clarity on before the BCS is released, so we won't see a lot else from the computers this morning/afternoon (although you can get a pretty good feel on Colley). Sagarin has been punishing to Texas all year, but I really thought they would jump TCU. It's little surprise to me Florida stayed ahead of Texas, but I am surprised they were #2 despite the loss.
If this is the only disappointing computer result for Texas, it should be fine, since the lowest score gets dropped anyway. But at the margin, this may be indicative of Texas remaining weaker in several other computers, particularly Wolfe and Massey. I'll stick with the projection from last night, but areas where Texas could be vulnerable relative to my forecast:
1. Texas doesn't jump Florida in AH
2. Texas doesn't jump TCU in Massey
Even if that doesn't pan out as stated above, Texas should still have a decent lead on Cincy/TCU, but it would make them more vulnerable to a groundswell against Texas in the human ballots. TCU may also be able to jump Cincy, given the stronger than expected possibilities in the computers.
Overall, still not worried, but the coaches poll will be crucial. I would also expect the coaches poll to be more pro-Texas than the Harris will.
Base Case
Team Coach Score Harris Score AH RB CM KM JS PW Score BCS
Alabama 1475 1.0000 2850 1.0000 25 25 25 25 25 25 1.0000 1.0000
Texas 1382 0.9369 2670 0.9369 23 24 24 22 21 22 0.9100 0.9280
Cincy 1315 0.8915 2541 0.8915 24 21 23 24 23 24 0.9400 0.9077
TCU 1374 0.9315 2655 0.9315 21 22 21 21 22 21 0.8500 0.9044
Boise St (computers only) 20 20 19 20 19 20
Florida (computers only) 22 23 22 23 24 23
Original message from very early Sunday morning
Tomorrow, I expect the following rankings:
1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Cincy
4. TCU
I think there's a few key elements to think about as we await the official confirmation from tomorrow:
(1) The Texas win, while brutally tight, was legitimate. I was at the game in person, so I didn't have the benefit of seeing how controversial the decision to put a second back on the clock might have been. Based on what I've heard, and listening to national pundits (including Mel Kiper as I type), there is no appearance whatsoever that the media view the Texas win as illegimate. A close win means Texas loses some sponsorship on the ballots, but by and large they keep enough to stay ahead of TCU and Cincy. An illegitimate win means voters work hard to keep Texas out of the game, because they should have lost.
(2) Most voters know Texas got jobbed in 2008, and they also are hearing most experts tonight say it's a foregone conclusion Texas will go to Pasadena. Thus, Texas will tend to get the benefit of the doubt on a lot of ballots.
(3) Cincy does not have a lot to hang their hat on. They won by virtue of a missed extra point. The tendency should be for more voters to keep them behind Texas and TCU. This is crucial, because Cincy probably continues to outrank Texas in the computers tomorrow, but they won't have enough juice to jump Texas in the overall BCS.
(4) TCU will pick up some votes, but they did not play today. Their computer score will suffer impairment, and the gap is simply too big relative to Texas for them to make it close. The computer detriment will be so bad that they will likely fall behind Cincinnati in tomorrow's final BCS.
I think "open code" is the right way to approach this thing, hopefully to help us all sleep tonight. I know many posters follow the polls and computers closely, so I welcome any feedback. Let me first put forth my "base case," where I am at the margin trying to be conservative. This means I am keeping Florida ahead of Texas in several polls where SOS is highly important, and I'm also being "conservative" on how Texas' human votes play out.
Base Case
Team Coach Score Harris Score AH RB CM KM JS PW Score BCS
Alabama 1475 1.0000 2850 1.0000 25 25 25 25 25 25 1.0000 1.0000
Texas 1382 0.9369 2670 0.9369 23 24 24 22 22 22 0.9100 0.9280
Cincy 1315 0.8915 2541 0.8915 24 21 23 24 24 24 0.9500 0.9110
TCU 1374 0.9315 2655 0.9315 21 22 21 21 21 21 0.8400 0.9010
Boise St (computers only) 20 20 19 20 20 20
Florida (computers only) 22 23 22 23 23 23
Guys, I think this is pretty conservative. Note how close the Texas and TCU votes are. It assumes Texas outgains TCU in 2nd place votes 35 to 20, and TCU is a solid #3 beyond those ballots. I'd be shocked if it were that close tomorrow, but I'd still rather be conservative, especially after last year.
Debunking TCU
Let's give TCU the best shot they have, hypothetically. If you want to assume that TCU jumps Texas and is ranked #2 on every single ballot, but keep the above computer assumptions stable, yes, TCU would jump Texas ever so slightly. If you assume a mere 4 coaches (and equivalent Harris voters) kept Texas #2 and TCU #3, but the overwhelming majority put TCU #2 and Texas #3, you get the following:
2. Texas 0.9185
3. TCU 0.9182
TCU simply lacks the computer strength to pull it off.
Debunking Cincy
I can come up with a hairy scenario where Cincy edges out Texas, but it puts rational voting behavior on its head. It involves Cincy taking significant #2 and #3 votes from TCU and Texas when they don't really have a leg to stand on after a soft performance against Pitt. You need to assume two things: a) voters intentionally want Texas not to go to Pasadena, and b) voters are actually smart enough to realize that they need to vote for Cincy, not TCU. I just don't see either of these happening to any meaningful degree. TCU is a fine football team that has has a solid year, and deserves to be higher than Cincy on most ballots (and heck, after tonight, maybe higher than Texas on a few ballots, too). Cincy does not deserve any meaningful amount of #2 votes.
Nonetheless, if you want the hairy scenario, here's one. It's not very logical, but it gives you an idea of the math necessary.
Votes/Place 1 2 3 4
Alabama 59 1475
Texas 28 20 11 1374
TCU 14 20 25 1346
Cincy 17 19 23 1351
Resulting BCS
2. Cincy 0.9273
3. Texas 0.9244
Bowl Projections
I'm basically keeping them the same as my projections from last week. I can re-paste my logic on the selections if anyone has any thoughts:
NC: Alabama vs. Texas
Sugar: Florida vs. Cincy
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta: Iowa vs. Boise State
Rose: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Final Thoughts
I feel pretty at peace with this working out all right tomorrow, and I suspect when the coaches poll comes out, we'll feel really confident.
I've really appreciated everyone's interest this year. I still feel terrible, as much as I hedged it and called it a toss-up in 2008, that I got the initial call wrong on Texas/OU. That makes one gun shy when the big night comes a year later, but I'm really not worried. It should be all good.
This post was edited on 12/6 7:24 AM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 12/6 9:26 AM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 12/6 12:36 PM by SynTex1
Posted on 12/6 12:52 AM | IP: Logged
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