This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.
For some perspective to non-Texas fans, this was a difficult weekend for those of us that bleed burnt orange. I'm not going to try and spin it, I got the initial call wrong, and looking back, with the margin setting up to be excruciatingly close, I should have said it was too close to call (which ESPN's Brad Edwards wisely did). However, I was fairly clear once the Sagarin poll came out early Sunday morning (about 10 hours before the official BCS was announced) that Texas was in deep, deep trouble. So at least I "rescinded" my initial projection as soon as data came out to the contrary.
Please see the 2008 BCS Post Mortem for some thoughts on what made the call so challenging. The rest of this post includes the original comments I made that fateful Saturday night and Sunday morning.
Boy, it hurts to re-read it. Tough, tough weekend.
-- Jeff
Early Sunday Morning update
This is not a good morning {for Texas fans}. Sagarin is confirmed, and OU narrowly edged out Texas. I had hoped Texas could hold them off, but the SOS hits we took finally appear to have tweaked us. There are posters on this board that have used the Colley simulator to determine Texas will be #1 and OU #3. While I think that Texas will definitely be #1, I'm afraid OU will jump to #2 (another SOS tweak).
Wolfe is the key now, and unfortunately, someone on another message board seems to think that already came out pro-OU. I'm trying to confirm, usually that one doesn't come out, but given the way today is going, Wolfe going to OU would not surprise me. Still worried OU could jump Bama in Billingsley as well.
Best case for Texas now really is a push in the computers, and it looks like the higher probability is OU to have a 0.01 or 0.02 computer lead. If Wolfe falls pro-OU, you can count on at least a 0.02 computer lead.
I'm very disappointed. Anything can happen in the human polls, but this is looking like a real uphill battle. I will leave my original prediction for posterity's sake (below), and I'll have to stick with it, but it's not looking great. I think Texas is probably outside looking in, and Oklahoma is in much better shape.
Original Note from Saturday Night
1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Oklahoma
4. Florida
This is what you call a "pick'em" in the BCS. This makes Cal/Texas look like a walk in the park. This may end up being comical as far as how small the margin will be between OU and Texas.
I will officially call the computers a push. I could see it go +0.01 Texas, and +0.01 OU. There's even some shot it could go +0.02 Texas (and even a remote shot it goes +0.02 OU). I wish SOS would have been more in our favor, but downsizing my computer projection down to a push seems fair to me.
So it's all on the human voters. And your guess is as good as mine. Seriously, your guess is as good as mine. I cannot caveat this projection enough. And I would not be surprised if Brad Edwards comes out tonight and says OU makes it to #2 (and he could be right).
Why do I think Texas will prevail?
1. OU did not get style points tonight. They got some last-minute garbage points, but not style points.
2. OU's defense was somewhat exposed, and Texas has held its last two opponents to single-digits.
3. Texas took care of business against A&M.
4. At least 80% of national pundits that have commented on the issue state that they think Texas should be ahead of OU.
5. Baylor gave Tech everything they could handle, taking a ton of luster off of OU's victory last week.
6. Tech moved themselves even more out of the discussion on the three way tie with the aforementioned struggle versus Baylor.
7. Anyone who gives OU a first place vote (and there were several last week), when Alabama went undefeated in the SEC, and Florida far more convincingly won their hostile road game, should seriously be called into question. Texas should gain some points as the Gators get promoted.
8. Texas beat OU by 10 points on a neutral field.
There are many good counter-arguments. I just think Texas has the best arguments. I don't know how many voters were even watching TV this week and hearing the media be pro-Texas. I don't know how willing they are to change their vote. I don't know what they thought when they watched the Bedlam game.
Couple of final thoughts:
a) do not take my projection as anything more than it is. This is a very hard call, and there is so much uncertainty on how human voters will behave. There is nothing scientific about this. Your guess is as good as mine. Please don't get your hopes up, this is just my guess.
b) again, this is far more difficult than Texas/Cal.
c) I've really appreciated all of the interest and support over the last few weeks.
d) Please don't kill me if I'm wrong. Because there is a good shot I am.
Could I have possibly caveated this projection any more? :)
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