Projection for tomorrow
I don't expect any change in the rankings tomorrow.
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. TCU
5. Cincy
6. Boise
Looking Ahead to the Final Week
Absent a stunning upset in Arlington, it will be Texas versus the Florida/Alabama winner for the national championship game in Pasadena. Thankfully, we don't need to focus on the scenario of a one-loss SEC conference champ going to the NC anymore.
So is there any way at all Texas could get hosed next week? One should never assign a zero percent possibility when human judgment may be a factor, but I see no scenario that will keep an undefeated Texas team from the national championship game with any meaningful plausibility. I understand how many of us are still paranoid, after the three-way tie debacle from 2008. Believe me, I understand. But there is just no way.
What if TCU jumps Texas?
TCU already has a weaker computer score than the Horns, and it's going to get worse. TCU also is done with its season, meaning they can't boost their stock with the voters. For TCU to have any chance whatsoever, they must have Cincinnati lose to Pitt, to ensure that TCU is not seeing its votes diluted by the Bearcats. Then, TCU needs the one-loss SEC team to not fall below Texas in the majority of the computers. This might allow TCU to stay within 0.01 of Texas in the computers. Then, TCU must see about 6 out of 10 human voters, all of whom already have Texas ranked ahead of them, switch their vote from Texas to TCU. The odds for this perfect storm are astronomical.
What if Cincy jumps Texas?
Cincy would have a better shot than TCU of edging Texas in the computers (they still outrank Texas in 3 of them), but I do expect Cincy's advantage to diminish tomorrow. However, there are two really big problems for Cincy in the final week. First, the Pitt game has lost a lot of its luster given the Panthers' loss to West Virginia. More importantly, TCU is taking a lot of their votes, and TCU is done for the year. Cincinnati cannot jump Texas.
What if the SEC loser stays ahead of Texas?
Yes, Florida and Alabama both have amazing schedule strength which will translate in the computers. The SEC has had an incredible year, and it really will benefit both of these teams. One could project that the loser of the SEC title game may stay ahead of Texas in several (if not a majority) of the computers. Even with this potential advantage, it would take abnormal voting behavior for the SEC runner-up to stay ahead of Texas. Let's use Alabama as the loser in this scenario (since they would be the greater threat). Even if Alabama remains ahead of Texas in every single computer poll (unlikely), and Cincinnati serves as a wedge between Bama and Texas in several computers (unlikely), AND Alabama received every #3 vote (putting them ahead of undefeated TCU, Cincy, and Boise on every single ballot), they would still be a full 0.01 behind Texas in the final BCS. You would need to start thinking about voter shenanigans, where voters would be putting a one-loss Bama ahead of Texas. That's not going to happen, especially when the coaches' ballots will be made public. I think my computer assumption above is extreme, so Texas would have a good amount of buffer to withstand voter manipulation, should any occur (which I don't think it will).
If Texas wins in Arlington, they are going to Pasadena.
Included below is the updated strength of schedule projections. Texas had a good weekend, and will likely have a top-20 schedule when all is said and done. Alabama and Florida are off the charts. The other three remain very weak.
TEAM CUR SOS Rk PROJSOS Rk
Florida 0.528 15 0.555 6
Bama 0.536 12 0.563 2
Texas 0.518 26 0.530 17
TCU 0.477 63 0.477 63
Cincy 0.465 80 0.487 52
Boise 0.453 91 0.440 93
Seeding the BCS Bowls
Now that we are in the homestretch, the easiest way to discuss the way the bowls might play out is to look at the BCS pecking order:
(1) Sugar
Pick: SEC runner-up
Reason: No brainer.
(2) Fiesta
Pick: Iowa
Reason: The Fiesta knows they will probably get stuck with a non-BCS school on their other slot, so I think they will jump on a BCS at large contender. OkSt losing means that Iowa may be the choice (as the Big 10 is really the last man standing for at-large candidates). If it were simply about which Big 10 team deserves it, there is no doubt: it's Iowa. Iowa has played a much tougher schedule, and of course, they beat PSU head-to-head. Some might say that PSU would be better for ratings and attendance. I'm not so sure. PSU has been a major disappointment in 2009, and has not exactly been electrifying in winning against weak competition. Conversely, Iowa has exceeded expectations significantly in 2009. Also, Iowa could bring better potential fan turnout based on their history. They had 20,000 fans come to a regular season game at AzSt in 2004, and they set an Orange Bowl record in 2003 with 47,000 tickets sold. Geographically, the Fiesta isn't that much of a stretch for Iowa either. I think Iowa makes the most sense at this point.
(3) Orange
Pick: TCU
Reason: This is a tough one. Maybe the Orange would think about taking Cincy, but then again, the Orange just had Cincy last year, which is probably just enough reason for the Orange to go with TCU. Geographically, TCU isn't as good of a fit here as they would be in either the Sugar or Fiesta. The Orange is hungry for taking a quality team after having been stuck with some really lousy/uninspiring match-ups the last few years. TCU is clearly a much higher quality team than the other undefeateds outside of the NC game (and it's not even close, in my view).
(4) Fiesta
Pick: Boise State
Reason: A few years ago in the Fiesta, BSU played in one of the most exciting games of all time, stunning OU in overtime. The Fiesta may hope to relive that experience by inviting Boise again. There is a slight shot USC could inch into the top 14 if they win out, and the Fiesta could be tempted to go with a higher ratings/fan base play. But that seems pretty slim to me.
(5) Sugar
Pick: Cincinnati
Cincinnati becomes the "plug" team after the other at larges have been set. They would be thrilled to have the opportunity to make their case against a high quality SEC team.
So this sequence of events would give us:
NC: Texas vs. SEC winner
Sugar: SEC runner-up vs. Cincy
Fiesta: Iowa vs. Boise
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Rose: Ohio State vs. Oregon
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