This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.
7:00p update, with Harris results
Well, my hedge that I declared as being unlikely proved prescient. The win over OkSt did propel Texas higher than I expected in the computers. But the real reason Texas jumped to #2 was less about Texas coming ahead of expectations in the computers, but more about Alabama falling significantly in the computers. The one that really did them in was the surprising three notch drop from #3 to #6 in Wolfe. That basically allowed them to be effectively tied with Texas in the computers.
This may very well be a one-week phenomenon. Alabama, should they defeat LSU next week, will probably jump Texas to go back into the #2 spot. Also, Texas will see its SOS decrease somewhat as the year goes on, while Alabama will see it strengthen.
Glad I was wrong. Very cool for the Horns to be #2 in the BCS for the first time all year, and obviously, very well deserved.
5:00p update, with Harris results
Harris also generally as projected. Doesn't alter my last projection. Really not seeing how Texas jumps to #2. Sometimes, the computers do funky things after a team has a "big" win against a high quality opponent, so I could be underestimating the boost from OKSt, but I don't think it can be enough. Also, maybe Oregon gets slightly more love in the computers than I'm forecasting, which would still mean there's a slight shot they jump Boise. TCU/Cincy at #5/#6 is also a little tight. Big gaps between Florida/Alabama and Texas/Iowa.
11:50a update, with coaches poll results
The top three were within one point of my projection, reiterating my view that Texas will not jump Alabama for the #2 spot (which is apparently what Brad Edwards is projecting). If two or three computers break Texas' way, then they may edge out the Tide, but I still view this as unlikely (but never rule anything out completely). Other modest surprises were the fact that TCU jumped to the #4 spot in the coaches poll. The key that the Horned Frogs learned is winning convincingly, even if against a lousy opponent like uNLV, in a week where lots of votes are in play (given previous #4 USC's loss) can pay off big-time. Boise State really now has an uphill battle to ever jump TCU, because once voters put a team higher on their ballot, it is tough to get them moved back down. Boise's administrators better start greasing the wheels for a non-automatic bid, because they are going to have to make a case to the BCS bowl committees that they can make an invite economically viable.
The other modest surprise was that Oregon did not get as much of a boost with the impressive win over USC. I'm pretty surprised. If a team clobbers the #4 team in the country (and a team that many thought was the best overall, even though they lost to Washington), you would think they might be able to edge out one of the weaker undefeateds. This lack of a boost effectively kills Oregon's chances to really be relevant in the NC discussion (and they had a slim chance at best).
Updated projection changes slightly, but only on the bottom half:
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Iowa
5. TCU
6. Cincy
7. Boise
8. Oregon
9. LSU
Original message from late Saturday night
Overview
A fairly unremarkable Saturday in the NC race, notwithstanding USC's loss to Oregon (which wasn't all that surprising, really). The seven undefeateds remain undefeated. Two from the SEC (Bama and Florida), one from the Big XII (Texas), one from the Big 10 (Iowa), and three from weaker conferences (TCU, Cincy and Boise).
We are still down to the "elite nine," but the Ducks have swapped with the Trojans as the Pac 10 contender. Yet, Oregon faces some substantial hurdles (to be discussed).
My projection as of now:
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Iowa
5. TCU
6. Boise State
7. Oregon
8. Cincy
9. LSU
There is a modest probability Texas might jump Alabama into the #2 spot. I have projected some modest voter appreciation in favor of the Horns (and to the detriment of the Tide) based on a hugely impressive road win against the #14 team in the country. That said, I have been repeatedly surprised by how sticky the votes have been for the Tide (and the Gators) so far this year, and so when push comes to shove, Alabama probably still edges out Texas. But the margin is going to narrow considerably. Also... there is a shot Oregon could jump Boise (for now) in the BCS standings tomorrow, but it's difficult to assess what kind of boost Oregon will get in the human polls
Oregon?? What do we think??
Boise State fans should be pleased -- the big Oregon win against the Trojans puts the "human voters" in an awkward bind. Oregon, if not for the opening day loss in Boise, would be an incredibly strong one-loss contender. They would be in prime position to step in if some undefeated teams stumbled. They have the third most difficult schedule in the country (both current and projected). But... oh wait... they lost to Boise State. And Boise State is still undefeated. Any voter who puts Oregon ahead of Boise on their ballot should be shot, or at least mildly tortured. Much like we Longhorn fans (rightfully) trumpeted "45-35" last year on this message board to emphasize the meaning of a head-to-head victory, that sentiment must be enforced on Boise relative to Oregon. What a bizarre ceiling that hangs over the Ducks... they'd be in prime position to contend for the NC, if not for that loss. The computers will try to look through it, and give them a lot of benefit, but the human votes will keep them generally out of the NC picture. But it's a really strange dynamic, and the fact Oregon may edge out Boise this week will be a testament to how weird of a situation this will be.
Iowa's Fall From Grace
Iowa played yet another sloppy game, and had yet another "gutsy" come from behind win. Fine, let that be the story on which the media fixates. For those that want to look at the numbers, Iowa had a particularly rough weekend. Their opponents played to date had a very mediocre week, going 2-4 (Iowa State, Arkansas State, Michigan, and Michigan State lost, while PSU and Wisconsin won). Their projected schedule (counting all future opponents as well as opponents played to date) fell slightly, from 4th in the country to a still respectable 8th. I do not expect them to gain as many points as they probably should have from the humans this week, considering a lot of USC votes were in play. Iowa missed a real opportunity, and that effort against Indiana is only going to feed the skeptics. Yes, the Ohio State game could be a platform, but Iowa needs to be converting voters now, not later. I view the gap between Iowa and Texas to be too massive. Iowa should see its perfect 1.00 computer score fall this week. I firmly believe if Texas wins out, Iowa will be playing in Pasadena for the Rose Bowl, and not the national championship.
SEC still on track
The SEC schedules got stronger this week. Florida and Alabama remain in prime position (and LSU technically controls its destiny as well). I think even with a loss, the SEC conference winner will be playing for the national title.
What if Texas and Iowa lose
Texas generally held steady for its projected SOS this week, but it's still not good enough to withstand a loss, in my opinion (right now, 30th most difficult schedule in the country). I continue to believe if Texas loses a game, the loss will be too late in the year to overcome, and the North opponent will be too weak to help propel Texas. I also think Iowa has too many perception issues, despite their incredibly strong schedule, to be relevant in the NC discussion should they lose a game. That begs the question... who would play the SEC title winner if both Texas and Iowa stumble? I think TCU and Boise (ugh) would be in good shape, with Cincy not far behind. Do not underestimate how much benefit Boise got by virtue of the Ducks beating the Trojans. Boise's schedule is appalling (94th in the country), but they could become a firm #2/#3 in the event Texas and Iowa lose. TCU has a stronger schedule (68th in the country) and a big match-up against Utah coming up. It's hard to believe, but the BCS-busters may have their say if Texas and Iowa don't take care of business.
Seeding the Bowls
After the 6 BCS conference winners are slotted, that leaves four spots in play. TCU is in prime position to hold off Boise for the automatic "non-BCS" bid, and you have to believe the loser of the Alabama/Florida game also gets a bid. Right now, I think USC and Penn State are probably the other two at-large teams (meaning Boise may get "screwed"). Right now, I would project the bowls as:
NC: Florida vs. Texas
Sugar: Alabama vs. USC
Fiesta: Penn State vs. TCU
Rose: Iowa vs. Oregon
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Cincy
Below is the way the nine contenders rank as far as "current SOS" (W/L records and opp's opponents W/L records played to date) and "projected SOS" (counting all teams on the schedule). Note I now project Nebraska as the North champion, rather than KSU.
TEAM CUR SOS Rk ProjSOS Rk
Florida 0.577 8 0.541 16
Alabama 0.539 23 0.564 7
Texas 0.545 22 0.523 30
Iowa 0.557 15 0.560 8
TCU 0.494 43 0.466 68
Boise St 0.431 86 0.431 94
Oregon 0.594 3 0.576 3
Cincinnati 0.451 72 0.476 59
LSU 0.518 29 0.532 24
If you remain concerned Iowa poses a threat to Texas, and you want Texas to hold off the Hawkeyes in a worst case scenario.... root for the Big XII South against the North (obvious), but root for Nebraska to win the North. Root for Kansas State not to win the North. KSU has a terrible, terrible SOS, with two of their victories coming against sub-FBS teams, while Nebraska has a better resume. I really am not worried about Iowa, but we have lots of wedges between Texas and Iowa in the polls (Boise, TCU, Cincy, etc.) But if those teams all lose, and Iowa tries to pose any kind of threat, however remote, root for KSU not to go to Arlington.
This post was edited on 11/1 12:17 AM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 11/1 11:58 AM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 11/1 5:18 PM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 11/1 7:07 PM by SynTex1
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