final update with real standings
Wow. Bama scored very well in the computers, getting a perfect 1.00 (only Andersen Hester has them lower than #1, and that gets dropped out of the calculation). They could become #1 after beating Auburn, but obviously, it doesn't really matter too much. Cincinatti, despite not playing a game, saw a spike in their computer rating. I really don't know why, but there it is. They have played the 61st most difficult schedule in the country (Texas has played the 26th most difficult), yet Massey, Sagarin Elo Chess and Wolfe have Cincy solidly ahead of Texas. By the way, those three computers are the ones I've had the hardest time forecasting lately. None of this changes my view that Texas is golden if they win out, but I am now beginning to wonder if TCU can hold Cincinatti off. In the event the Horns get stunned, I'm wondering if Cincy will be the primary beneficiary, getting the chance to play for the NC. Hopefully it's a moot point.
1:45p update with coaches and Harris polls
TCU scoring a little bit better than expected in both polls, but the gap between Texas and TCU will remain comfortable. Actually, that looks to be true throughout the top 6, where decent gaps exist between #1/#2, #2/#3, etc. Still think BCS should be unchanged for the top 6. Oklahoma State will be close to cracking the top 10 (maybe #11), and if Pitt falls below them after a potential loss to Cincy, OkSt may be top-10 in the final BCS poll. I really like their chances if they can pull it out in Norman.
Original post from last night
Overview
Fairly brief update this late night, as there's really not much to say. It's still looking like a destiny-match between the SEC winner and Texas. I do not expect the BCS to change meaningfully this week. Therefore, tomorrow's BCS should look like:
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. TCU
5. Cincy
6. Boise
I was slightly disappointed by Louisiana Monroe and UTEP losing to weak opponents (particularly the latter), but it really doesn't matter. Texas will have a top 20-ish schedule when all is said and done, which will ensure there will not be any threat from TCU or Cincy. If Texas wins out, they will be in Pasadena. TCU and/or Cincy will simply not be able to get enough votes, even if Texas struggles somewhat against A&M or Nebraska. If Texas has a "fluke" win where a bad call clearly should have resulted in a Texas loss, then sure, maybe TCU can leap Texas, but otherwise, I just don't see it. I also am not at all worried about the other scenario some posters have thrown out, where the loser of the SEC title game still stays ahead of Texas in the final BCS poll. There is no precedent for that kind of voting behavior, and I would be completely shocked. The SEC loser could have a slight computer edge over Texas, but they will not have any kind of edge over Texas in the human polls, which is 2/3 of the BCS score.
Bottom line, to reiterate -- Texas wins out, they go to Pasadena.
Here's the updated SOS data on the six undefeateds:
TEAM CUR SOS RNK PROJ SOS RNK
FLA 0.511 28 0.540 14
ALA 0.530 15 0.559 4
TEX 0.515 26 0.525 20
TCU 0.508 36 0.477 60
Cincy 0.478 61 0.487 51
Boise 0.434 95 0.435 92
At-Large and Bowl Seeding
The picture has become more clear-cut for the at-large bids, with only a handful of teams really in play at this stage. As mentioned in previous weeks, the SEC runner-up and TCU are virtual locks, leaving two at-large spots open. Boise State, Oklahoma State, and a Big 10 two loss team (Penn State and Iowa) are the key contenders. I think Iowa should be the favorite to be a potential Big 10 at large. Penn State has better fan support, but they also lost to Iowa head-to-head, and Iowa's played the better schedule.
Right now, I think Oklahoma State is in good shape if they can beat the Sooners in Norman (hungry fan base that's never been to a bowl game; technically rated higher in BCS than Big 10 contenders; respectable schedule). I would actually seed them ahead of BSU and the Big 10 in the at-large pecking order. If OkSt loses, then Boise and Big 10 become the defacto teams. If OkSt wins, I think Boise may still edge out the Big 10, but this really becomes less about BCS "science" and more about back-room bowl committee dealings, which are impossible to handicap. Having two non-BCS teams is still really a burden, and Boise is ending its season fairly unimpressively (mediocre competition). I'll still give the edge to Boise for now, but I have been wavering on this week by week. Interesting if we start to hear any bowl committee stories leak out to the press in the next week or two.
BCS Bowl Projections
NC: SEC winner vs. Texas
Sugar: SEC runner-up vs. Boise State
Fiesta: TCU vs. Oklahoma State
Rose: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Cincy
This post was edited on 11/22 1:52 PM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 11/22 3:46 PM by SynTex1
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