3p update with coaches and harris
TCU didn't get as much support as I expected in the Harris poll. I'll stick with them being #4 and Cincy #5, but there's a shot Cincy edges out TCU for #4. Still feel comfortable that Texas will fall to #3.
Original message from Saturday night
Overview
Texas fans can now be fully assured that an undefeated Longhorn team will be playing in Pasadena for the national title. Iowa's loss was clearly the big news, but the Hawkeyes were going to be in trouble, anyway, with some devastating developments on their schedule. The NC title picture is now clear as day, with the only real contenders (barring absolute chaos) being the six undefeated teams: Florida, Alabama, Texas, TCU, Cincy and Boise. The losses by Oregon, Penn State and ND really make the BCS bowl seeding outside of the NC game a lot more complicated. Two at large bids are wide open.
Projected BCS Standings
Alabama will jump Texas tomorrow, after Texas had narrowly jumped Alabama last week. Rick Tellshow, Sam Chi, and yours truly all mis-forecast that Bama would stay #2 last week... a sliver of an edge for Texas in Colley was what sealed the deal... by the narrowest of margins. Won't matter and won't be nearly as close this week, as Alabama will see significant computer re-strengthening by virtue of the win against LSU, as well as other games that favored their schedule. TCU was only slightly behind Cincy last week, and I think there's a good shot they jump Cincy this week. The #4 through #6 spots will be fairly tight, so it wouldn't be surprising if Cincy jumps to #4, for instance.
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. TCU
5. Cincy
6. Boise
Iowa Was Already Doomed
Even if Iowa was able to squeak out another win against a mediocre Big 10 team, their ability to position themselves in the NC picture was greatly impaired. The "strong SOS" that Iowa had earlier in the year (a perfect 1.00 computer score a few weeks ago) was a paper tiger. They benefited from lousy teams exceeding expectations (Iowa State, Arizona, etc.). They also had a big boost by not having the two weakest Big 10 teams on their schedule (Illinois and Purdue). Unfortunately, both benefits came crashing to earth, including Illinois and Purdue starting to beat some of Iowa's opponents. Iowa's top 5 SOS is no more (now down to #26). Even if they win out, they are completely irrelevant in the NC discussion.
SEC Picture Coming Into Focus
Alabama and Florida are on track to meet as undefeated divison winners for what would be a guaranteed NC game seed. Alabama seems highly unlikely to lose before the conference title game (@ MissSt, Chattanooga, @Auburn). Florida may have a potential trap game or two, but also looks likely to remain undefeated (@ South Carolina, FIU, FSU). We're getting late in the year, so if one of these two lost a game but then won the conference, it could get a little dicier to jump the other undefeated teams, but I think they would have a very good shot (Alabama in particular).
Sizing Up the Six Undefeated Teams
With the Hawkeyes out of the picture, the "pecking order" is pretty cut and dry. We are not going to see teams' computer strength change too much as the year goes on, although the SEC teams will strengthen slightly, Texas and TCU will weaken slightly, and Cincy may gain a little ground.
TEAM CUR SOS (RNK) PROJ SOS (RNK)
FLORIDA 0.535 (21) 0.538 (16)
ALABAMA 0.562 (7) 0.557 (6)
TEXAS 0.533 (25) 0.521 (32)
TCU 0.502 (42) 0.477 (59)
CINCY 0.454 (67) 0.487 (54)
BOISE 0.431 (90) 0.432 (95)
So if Texas and the SEC winner are undefeated, there is no doubt what the NC game will be. If Florida or Bama lose a game but then win the SEC, I think they have a shot to jump into the #2 spot to play Texas, but I'll admit this is going to get harder to pull off with time running out in the season. If Texas loses, I can't believe I'm saying this, but either TCU or Cincy will play for the NC game (not sure which one... right now I'm thinking TCU, but Cincy may be able to jump ahead as the year goes on). If Texas, TCU and Cincy all lose a game, then Boise has a good shot to play for it all.
BCS Bowl Projections
A lot of teams keep shooting themselves in the foot for BCS bids. I really didn't think it was probable Notre Dame would climb high enough to be a factor in the BCS at large dialogue, but obviously, their stunning loss to Navy means complete elimination. Boise State did not really help their cause with a sloppy win over Louisiana Tech, and I still believe TCU (if they win out), will earn the sole automatic berth for "non-BCS" conferences. Boise is becoming a funky topic. I still think the bowl committees, especially with the difficult economy, are going to emphasize ratings and attendance over looking out for the little guy. Also, the fact Boise has already played in a BCS game may work against them. But there are not a lot of quality at-large contenders out there, and many/most of them have two losses (while BSU would have zero). So, I reluctantly have to acknowledge Boise may be able to secure a BCS bowl bid (unbelievable).
NC: SEC Winner vs. Texas
Fiesta: USC vs. TCU
Sugar: SEC Loser vs. Cincy
Rose: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Orange: George Tech vs. Boise State
Other at large candidates: Oklahoma State, Iowa, Penn State, Miami
This post was edited on 11/8 2:57 PM by SynTex1
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