Iowa's perfect 1.00 computer score in today's BCS standings is eye-catching. Some are worried Iowa poses a threat to an undefeated Texas, based mostly on their schedule strength (which as I have noted for weeks, is quite strong). I continue to believe Iowa is not a serious threat to Texas. I will never rule anything out, because anything is possible, and maybe some dynamics unfold over the next few weeks to change the story... but I view it as highly unlikely that Iowa will jump Texas if both teams win out.
1. Iowa has peaked in the computers, and they have nowhere to go but down.
To start, let's use the blunt (but relevant) instrument of strength-of-schedule to understand why Iowa has peaked. The first column is the current SOS through Week 8; the second column is the "projected" SOS counting all opponents on the schedule. The third column is the change, with positive numbers indicating the teams that will strengthen, and negative meaning the opposite. I've sorted it from teams that will strengthen the most to those that will weaken the most. I know some guys (Tellshow in particular) like to forecast how the projected SOS will look if the higher ranked teams win during the rest of the year. I'd rather not make any assumptions, because CFB is inherently an unpredictable game.
TEAM CUR SOS PROJ SOS Chg
Cincinnati 0.406 0.455 0.049
Southern Cal 0.549 0.566 0.017
Alabama 0.557 0.564 0.007
LSU 0.545 0.539 (0.005)
Texas 0.537 0.528 (0.009)
Florida 0.559 0.533 (0.027)
Iowa 0.621 0.582 (0.039)
Boise St 0.464 0.420 (0.043)
TCU 0.526 0.466 (0.060)
Note Iowa's schedule will weaken substantially (0.039 winning percentage points), while Texas will hold generally stable. Also, Texas will eventually jump TCU, USC, etc., in several of the polls. Don't get me wrong.... I expect Iowa will still hold a computer advantage over Texas, but there is no way it will be the massive chasm (1.00 vs. 0.79) it is right now. I also think there is the potential for Alabama to be the #1 team ahead of Iowa if they win out, which further negates Iowa's relative advantage over Texas in the computers.
2. Iowa has played 8 games, while most others have played 7.
That's tangentially related to point 1, because it is slightly inflating Iowa's computer strength, but it's worth pointing out.
3. Iowa can, at best win 12 games, but Texas can win 13.
This is particularly important in Billingsley, based on the way it is computed (it should assure Texas remains ahead of Iowa in Billingsley), but it may help in other computers as well.
4. Iowa will be at home on the couch watching after November 21.
The Big 10 is perpetually hurt by not having late season games. Texas will have the opportunity to play in front of national audiences on Thanksgiving night and in early December in the conference title game. There have been times where a team that has the "last word" hurts themselves by playing poorly (think Cal in 2004 against Southern Miss), but all else equal, you'd like to have the last impression.
5. If you make Iowa a solid #3 because you think teams will lose, this will help Texas in the computers.
I don't think it is going to play out this way, but many are worried that Boise, Cincy, TCU, and USC will all lose a game, making it a clear cut Iowa vs. Texas argument. Clearly, now that Texas no longer has much of a shot to get to the NC game with a loss, we should all put our rally caps on and root for all those contenders, because they are taking votes from the Hawkeyes. But if all those teams lose, that is to Texas' advantage in the computers. As I said earlier, I don't think Iowa will have a perfect 1.00 computer score at the end of the season, but Texas will be much more competitive against Iowa in the computers if there is a scorched earth among the other contenders. And I still don't think Iowa cracks much of a dent in Texas' human vote tally (discussed in the next point). Yes, if Texas is a perfect #2 in the human polls and a perfect #3 in the computers, and Iowa is a perfect #1 in the computers and a perfect #3 in the human polls, it would be a tie. But it's not going to be that clean. Some computers will start going against Iowa (see point 1), and Iowa may not clean up all the #3 votes (think about the Florida/Bama loser... do they throw a wrench into this?).
6. Texas enjoys solid support in the human polls, and votes are very sticky.
Looking at the coaches poll, Texas has 1390 points among 59 voters. We know for a fact that they are getting 4 first place votes. But if you do the math, almost all voters have Texas within the top three of their ballots... almost half of them (about 28 out of 59, by my estimate) have Texas ranked #1 or #2. Some voters will shift based on the latest fad, but a majority of votes are usually pretty sticky, meaning Iowa has an uphill fight in getting much needed support in the human polls. The fact that Iowa ranks a lowly 8th in the coaches poll (behind most of the other contenders) is a reflection of how they are viewed by the voters.
7. Iowa's body of work is... flawed.
It is really hard to get over the near-opening day loss at home against Northern Iowa (blocked FG at the end of the game). UNI is no Appy State. UNI is 5-3 overall, and Southern Illinois and South Dakota State have beaten UNI by more convincing margins than Iowa did. Iowa also played extremely poorly against lowly Arkansas State (2-4). I would like to point out that Louisiana Monroe (a team that Texas thumped) beat ASU by twice the margin that Iowa did, although we know football is not transitive. Iowa has also posted skin of their teeth wins against Michigan and Michigan State, neither of which has really been considered to be strong teams. Maybe Texas stinks up the joint against a KU or an A&M, but in the meantime, Texas' wins have been much more dominating.
8. Everyone believes Texas is the superior team.
There is no mainstream CFB source I am aware of that thinks Iowa goes to the NC unless Texas loses. Because human opinion is crucial in the BCS, when people believe something to be so, they make it so. If we start to hear a meaningful groundswell of people go pro-Iowa, we can start to become concerned.
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