8:00 p.m. update
Was generally pleased with the accuracy of my computer forecasts, but the two main things I missed:
1) I grossly underestimated how many computers TCU would win over with the victory over BYU
2) I underestimated Iowa's power surge in the computers. I expected a strong showing, but not a perfect 1.00. It didn't matter, I was still correct in putting Iowa at #4. There's still a massive gap between Iowa and Texas.
The new topic is clearly going to be concerns about Iowa. I'm still not concerned. I'll post the details in a separate thread. With the BCS standings out and digested, it's probably logical to let this thread fall (thanks to the mods for pinning!)
3:50 p.m. update
Harris penalized the Trojans a lot more than I was counting on. Still think Iowa clocks in at #4, but Boise may be able to hold off Cincy and USC to stay in the top 5. I know a couple of posters think I might be putting TCU too low, but I'm not sure I see how they can jump much higher than 8th. My projected gap between Southern Cal and TCU is pretty significant. Maybe a couple of computers will swing the Horn Frogs' way.
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Iowa
5. Boise
6. Cincy
7. Southern Cal
8. TCU
9. LSU
10. Oregon
11:30 a.m. update
Final update before the actual release, includes the coaches poll. I then extrapolate Harris, with some minor tweaks to capture their biases. I think it's pretty likely Boise is falling, and they may fall to #7 (depends on Cincy's computer scores and human votes). For those scoring at home, Bama actually gained a point in the coaches poll (unbelievable), while Florida shed five points, and Texas gained four. Not a flattering week for the coaches' poll at all, in my opinion, but it really doesn't matter.
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Iowa
5. Southern Cal
6. Boise
7. Cincy
8. TCU
9. LSU
10. Oregon
10:00 a.m. update
Guys, I'm an idiot. I didn't sort a couple of rows right on my spreadsheet, so I understated where I think USC should be (which is higher). Below is my updated projection. It includes the actual rankings from Sagarin, which generally played out as I expected, although Iowa surprised by getting the #1 ranking in that poll. The margin between BSU, Southern Cal and Iowa is going to be very tight. It's not inconceivable BSU gets jumped by USC and/or Iowa. USC should really be kicking itself... a solid win over Oregon State and they probably would have easily jumped to #4. TCU and Cincinnati probably remain lower in the polls. Also, the gap between Texas and Bama is tighter than I initially expected. Don't think it's too likely, but there is an outside (5%) chance Texas jumps Bama. We'll know a lot more when the coaches poll is released.
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Boise State
5. USC
6. Iowa
7. Cincy
8. TCU
9. LSU
10. Oregon
Original message from last night...
Damn those Hawkeyes. They have been squeaking out many games, week after week, but the TD as time expired on a slant route against Michigan State may have taken the cake. Another close win (on the road), and Iowa remians undefeated, en route to what projects as the 6th most difficult schedule in all of college football. Unfortunately for Iowa, the razor-thin nature of their season could be their undoing for a potential NC bid. Although I believe their computer scores will remain incredibly strong (3rd in the country behind only Florida and Alabama), they will have an uphill fight to jump Texas in the human polls, based on how much they have struggled in so many games. In particular, the near-losses against Arkie State and Northern Iowa are real problems. Iowa remains a headache for many teams that aspire to the NC game, but I view it as highly, highly unlikely that an undefeated Iowa would leapfrog an undefeated Texas in the BCS standings, due mostly to the fact that the Hawkeyes will have an extremely difficult time converting human voters; although they could have an impressive resume of gutsy road wins, the margin of victory is probably going to hold them back.
Projected BCS Standings
I think Texas is going to gain meaningful ground in both the Coaches and Harris polls on the duo of leaders in the SEC, but the computer poll deficit is too wide for Texas to jump to the #2 spot in the BCS standings. I have Cincy and Iowa basically tied in my estimates, but I'm going to bump Iowa ahead of Cincinatti by virtue of playing a stronger opponent. This is the way I would guess the BCS standings look tomorrow afternoon:
'
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Boise State
5. Iowa
6. Cincy
7. USC
8. TCU
9. LSU
Week 8 Developments
There were a lot of close games today, but other than the Canes going down in OT to Clemson, very little changed as far as national title contenders went. Iowa's narrow win assured there will remain seven undefeateds(assuming BSU wins tonight against Hawaii): two from the SEC (Florida/Alabama), one from the Big XII (Texas), one from the Big 10 (Iowa), and three from weaker conferences (Cincy/TCU/Boise). I now think it is best to think of the leading NC candidates in terms of the "elite nine": seven of which are undefeated, and two that have one loss (USC and LSU). The seven undefeateds are clearly in the running because they have yet to lose, USC is in the running because of substantial media support and a fairly strong schedule, and LSU is in the running because it still technically controls its destiny in the SEC conference.
Behind the "elite nine" (which also happen to be the top 9 in the BCS) we have a few contenders that stand ready to step in the mix if chaos ensues (like it did in 2007). These teams includes Oregon, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Penn State, and West Virginia. These teams have only one loss, and respectable schedules, with the opportunity to create noise by winning a big game in the next few weeks (i.e., Okla State beats Texas, Oregon beats USC, WV beats Cincy, etc.). I'm not going to waste your time looking at these "second tier" NC contenders, because that would require chaos. And despite the "gritty" games we are witnessing week by week, the fact of the matter is, the favorites are generally winning, and the leading, dominant teams are taking care of business, even if they are doing it in ugly fashion. If chaos unfolds in the next week or two, we can focus more on the second tier, but in the meantime, we'll focus on the 9 main contenders.
Sizing up the Nine Contenders
I continue to believe the SEC conference winner is almost guaranteed a NC berth. Florida and Bama's lousy efforts against MSU and Tennessee, respectively, may throw a slight curve ball at that argument, but the SEC ranks as the strongest conference in CFB (bar none), and the media generally continues to believe that the SEC winner deserves one of the two NC spots, assuming that winner has only one loss. Florida, Alabama and LSU all control their destiny. Florida has seen its schedule hold firm, while Alabama and LSU have seen their very strong schedules weaken over the last couple of weeks. I don't think it matters too much -- they are still top 20/30 quality schedules. LSU may seem like a stretch, but think about how much love they will be getting if they beat Bama in conference play and Florida in the title game. They will be a lock (not necessarily as the top seed... Texas could earn the #1 ranking in that scenario... but I think they hold off an undefeated Iowa).
I also continue to believe Texas controls its destiny. Tonight's solid effort from Missouri will certainly help. Texas is the default #2/#3 vote on most human ballots, and it will take several squeakers by Texas, combined by impressive wins from Iowa, to change that dynamic. The Texas schedule took it on the chin this week (more on that at the end of this summary), but it is still respectable, meaning Texas will not have a computer detriment that will overcome what should be fairly solid scores on the coaches and Harris polls.
Iowa, assuming they win out (which apparently they might, as shocking as that might seem), is in the catbird's seat if Texas loses. Their schedule is off-the-charts, especially as Arizona and Iowa State continue to exceed expectations. I think it would be borderline criminal if a one-loss USC jumped an undefeated Iowa, especially considering the advantage Iowa will enjoy in the computers. But I know USC is a popular team.
USC needs both Texas and Iowa to lose to get to the NC. There might be some controversy about leaping the weak undefeateds, but USC's schedule is strong, their quality wins would be impressive (many of these coming on the road, including Cal, Oregon, Ohio State and ND), and at the end of the day, I think they would deserve it more than the weak undefeateds.
I'm sorry, I know I give the weak undefeateds little respect, but the math doesn't lie. TCU, Cincy and Boise continue to have terribly weak schedules (as you can see below). Boise has the win over Oregon, but if USC also beats Oregon, that victory loses clout. Cincy still has games against Pitt and WV, so maybe they don't run the table. TCU is being hurt by the fact the MWC is no where near as strong as it was in 2008. If Texas, Iowa and USC all lose, they may become relevant, but I would think the second tier I mentioned earlier (Okla State, GT, etc.) could still jump them. At this point, I think it is a fairly low probability any of these teams will be playing in the NC. The more interesting question will be whether we see two "non-BCS" schools get BCS bids in the same year (TCU and Boise). As other BCS schools continue to pile up losses, that may be an increasing possibility.
Strength of Schedule of the "Elite 9"
Team CurSOS ProjSOS Rank
Florida 0.559 0.533 27
Alabama 0.557 0.564 10
Texas 0.537 0.528 31
Boise 0.464 0.420 96
Cincy 0.406 0.455 77
Iowa 0.521 0.582 6
USC 0.549 0.566 9
TCU 0.526 0.466 68
LSU 0.545 0.539 22
Official Downgrade of a One-Loss Texas' Chances
Texas' SOS took it on the chin this week. As we look ahead, I was expecting a high-quality (Nebraska) North opponent in the conference title game. NU's stunning loss to ISU means that is now fairly remote. I'm literally projecting KSU as the opponent in Arlington, which is depressing on some level. Texas now projects at the 31st most difficult schedule in the country, and they continue to rely on teams such as Louisiana Monroe, Colorado, and UTEP to win games week by week. If you really want to think about a one-loss Texas team's chances, you must think about the reality of losing a game against a South foe (Oklahoma State) that keeps them out of the conference title game altogether, or about how late in the season (against KU in Austin? against A&M in CS?) such a loss would be occurring. Basically, I don't really see a scenario where Texas loses from this point forward, and still gets to the NC game. The loss would be too late, the North opponent would be too weak, or the schedule would not help enough in the computers. If you tell me Texas loses in Stillwater, but they still win the South, and then Iowa, USC, Boise, TCU, and a couple of others all lose, then yes, there's a shot. But basically, it looks like Texas needs to win out to go to have any reasonable probability of playing for it all in Pasadena.
This post was edited on 10/24 11:31 PM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 10/25 10:14 AM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 10/25 10:15 AM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 10/25 10:15 AM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 10/25 11:34 AM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 10/25 3:59 PM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 10/25 8:08 PM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 10/25 8:09 PM by SynTex1
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