After hearing a member of the media recently say, "Florida can probably lose to LSU but still compete for a national championship"... (a pathetic attempt to sandbag for the almighty Tebow)... it got me thinking... is that really true?
Probably. But only because the voter love (and the valid perception that the SEC is a tough conference) really works in Florida's favor. However, it could get dicey for the Gators down the stretch if they lost a game, as the computers are really not going to be their ally. In addition to playing an out-of-conference schedule that is looking more appalling by the week (Florida State, Charleston Southern, Troy and FIU), the Gators played an easier version of the SEC West in 2009, missing out on ranked Auburn, Ole Miss and Alabama. Of course, Florida would potentially play Bama in the SEC championship, but even when factoring that in, their resume (purely by the numbers) would pale in comparison when sized up against other one-loss contenders. But I'm not naive to the love. If Florida wins the SEC, even with a blemish in Baton Rouge, they would probably go to Pasadena.
Here's my way of grouping the contenders at this point:
Undefeated teams that can afford to lose a game:
LSU and Alabama are in this group. They have brutal schedules, and they could drop a regular season game, but win the SEC championship game (presumably against Florida) and easily punch their ticket to the NC. They are in very good shape. Reluctantly, the media love also means Florida falls into this camp.
Undefeated teams that probably can't lose a game, but don't count them out:
This is where I put Texas, along with Iowa and Auburn. In the case of Texas, their human "perception" could help them alleviate what is a less impressive SOS (but not as bad as many on this board think), but the lack of potential high profile wins could hurt the Horns. I wouldn't rule the Horns out if they lose to a Missouri or Oklahoma State type game. You'd need a half dozen or so games to break Texas' way, but crazier things have happened. Iowa and Auburn have fairly difficult schedules, but they don't have the "cache" with the humans... but they could still contend with a one-loss record.
Undefeated teams that can probably get to Pasadena if they stay undefeated, but can't lose a game:
Wisconsin, Missouri, Kansas. Lower on the totem poll, but come from decent conferences. Schedules and cache keep them out with a loss, though.
Undefeated teams that really have little chance:
USF, TCU, Cincy and Boise State. Uphill battles on the perception of the toughness of their schedules, and the math pretty much supports it.
One-loss teams that are in prime position to compete:
USC, Ohio State, Oregon, Virginia Tech, and Miami They have some big games yet to play (less true with tOSU, but the PSU game will still be big), and their schedules rank fairly well. Although Miami has played a strong schedule to date, there will be a strong drop-off in their numbers from here on out. However, if OU gets its act together and still wins 9 or 10 games, the Miami victory over OU could really help their cause. Miami is probably marginal in this category.
This is always a fun time of year. What seems obvious in early October can be turned on its head. Except in 2005. Yeah... that was pretty nice the way that worked out. Let's go with 2005 if we can.
Team Wins FBSWins Loss SOS ProjSOS
LSU 5 5 0 0.553 0.619
Iowa 5 4 0 0.646 0.613
Alabama 5 5 0 0.569 0.606
Southern Ca 4 4 1 0.547 0.603
Ohio State 4 4 1 0.587 0.595
Oregon 4 4 1 0.565 0.587
Auburn 5 5 0 0.470 0.568
Virginia Te 4 4 1 0.703 0.563
Texas 4 4 0 0.525 0.542
Wisconsin 5 4 0 0.482 0.539
Florida 4 3 0 0.488 0.530
Penn State 4 4 1 0.505 0.528
Miami FL 3 3 1 0.667 0.522
Missouri 4 3 0 0.320 0.511
Kansas 4 3 0 0.416 0.500
South Flori 5 3 0 0.277 0.478
TCU 4 3 0 0.446 0.438
Cincinnati 5 4 0 0.349 0.424
Boise St 5 4 0 0.408 0.386
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