PROJECTED BCS RANKINGS
It's fairly likely the initial BCS rankings will be:
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
A large gap will exist between Texas and the #4 team, which will be either Boise State or USC. I didn't spend too much time agonizing over which one will be #4 or #5, as USC will steadily gain strength as the year progresses, and will comfortably outrank BSU if they continue to win out.
UNDEFEATEDS
As I've done every week, let's begin with a tally of the undefeateds. Two more went down this weekend, meaning there are only seven undefeated teams remaining. Two come from the SEC (Alabama and Florida), one from the Big 10 (Iowa), one from the Big XII (Texas), and three from weaker conferences (TCU, Cincy and Boise State).
PUTTING CONTENDERS INTO TRANCHES
I think the easiest way to think about the national title contenders is to put them into tranches: SEC contenders, undefeated contenders, strong one-loss contenders, weak one-loss contenders, and undefeated pretenders.
SEC Contenders
As I discussed last week (and as most CFB fans readily acknowledge), the SEC winner is highly assured to have a seed in the NC game. Alabama and LSU are in particularly strong shape, even with one loss. Florida may have to sweat a little bit of computer weakness in the event they drop a regular season game, but I still believe they would garner at least a #2 BCS ranking when all is said and done.
Team Conf AllWins FBSWins AllLoss SOS ProjSOS Rank
Alabama SEC 7 7 - 0.572 0.584 4
LSU SEC 5 5 1 0.559 0.564 11
Florida SEC 6 5 - 0.601 0.534 29
Undefeated Contenders
For the second straight week, the strong undefeated contenders (outside the SEC) are Texas and Iowa. If Texas wins out, they will go to the national title (do not let anyone's foolish reporting convince you otherwise). I will discuss Texas' chances as a one-loss contender later. Iowa's big win in Madison has them in good shape, but they still face a couple of key Big 10 tests. Ohio State going down against Purdue may rob the Hawkeyes of a potential "quality win." Iowa does not get much love by the pundits, and they still have some big games to win, but if they win out, they will very much be a factor in the NC discussion. Iowa boasts a SOS ranking #7 nationally, but note this has been drifting lower over the last few weeks.
Team Conf AllWins FBSWins AllLoss SOS ProjSOS Rank
Iowa Big10 7 6 - 0.622 0.571 7
Texas BigXII 6 6 - 0.547 0.541 21
Strong One-Loss Contenders
Virginia Tech and Ohio State fell out of this group with their losses. Basically, USC is in prime shape here. If USC knocks off Oregon, they will have a multitude of quality wins, and will be in excellent shape should Texas and Iowa stumble. Oregon's schedule ranks very impressively, and if they knock-off USC, they could have a lot of momentum. I would worry about the difficulty of jumping Boise State (which I don't think is a valid contender)... that early season loss by such a significant margin may keep Oregon challenged. Miami is a weaker contender here, as their SOS continues to weaken, but Miami's NC chances went up significantly today with VT's loss to GT. If VT loses another game, Miami can win the ACC outright and be in decent position.
Team Conf AllWins FBSWins AllLoss SOS ProjSOS Rank
Oregon Pac10 5 5 1 0.584 0.582 5
Southern Cal Pac10 5 5 1 0.534 0.563 12
Miami FL ACC 5 4 1 0.584 0.538 27
Weak One-Loss Contenders
GT, Oklahoma State and Penn State could make some noise if they win out, but their schedules are probably not strong enough to make them premiere contenders. Keep an eye on them if chaos prevails among the other contenders.
Team Conf AllWins FBSWins AllLoss SOS ProjSOS Rank
Georgia Tech ACC 6 5 1 0.578 0.511 41
Oklahoma St BigXII 5 4 1 0.461 0.509 42
Penn State Big10 6 5 1 0.483 0.509 43
Undefeated Pretenders
TCU, Cincy and Boise State's schedules are simply too weak to merit serious NC consideration, and they do not appear to have enough voter support to help offset what will become a substantial computer detriment.
Team Conf AllWins FBSWins AllLoss SOS ProjSOS Rank
TCU MWC 6 5 - 0.521 0.467 64
Cincinnati BigE 6 5 - 0.415 0.444 77
Boise St WAC 6 5 - 0.483 0.418 96
What if Texas loses a game
If Texas loses a game (but is still able to win the Big XII), I think they might have an outside shot to still get back in the NC picture. With the SEC locking up one spot in the NC game, Texas would probably need the following teams to lose:
Iowa
USC
Oregon (presumably losing to USC>
I know a lot of you might roll your eyes. "Texas hasn't proven anything." "Texas hasn't played a great schedule." That might be true, but it's turning into a chaotic year in college football. There's not a lot of quality teams out there right now. If you eliminate all teams with two losses, the fact that we can really only talk about a dozen legitimate contenders in mid-October is saying something. Honestly, Texas could still be in contention as long as the loss doesn't occur too late (hopefully not in November) and doesn't keep them from going to Dallas to win the Big XII. Oklahoma State could be a backbreaker, as that is really the best quality opponent remaining on Texas' schedule, and a loss in Stillwater could keep Texas from winning the South.
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