With almost half the college football season behind us, the picture is becoming clearer for the universe of contenders for a berth in the national championship.
The remaining undefeateds
There are only nine undefeated teams remaining in the FBS: two of them from the SEC (Florida and Alabama), two of them from the Big XII (Texas and Kansas), two of them from the Big East (USF and Cincy), one from the Big 10 (Iowa), and two of them from "non-BCS" schools (Boise and TCU).
The SEC is in prime position
With LSU failing to knock-off the top ranked Gators, it is looking increasingly probable that Florida will take an undefeated record into the SEC championship game. Alabama appears equally strong. If LSU can claw its way back into relevance by stunning Alabama and then knocking off Florida in a potential re-match, they would also be in prime shape. With the SEC posting off-the-charts dominance in its out-of-conference performance (albeit against some weaker competition), and with the conference's national perception of strength surging through the roof, it is clear that the SEC winner is almost guaranteed a bid in the NC game. A one-loss Florida gets a tad dicey with the weaker schedule, but the voter love probably keeps them solidly in the top 2. The only way I envision the SEC doesn't get a NC game spot? If chaos reigns... resulting in the SEC winner having two losses.
Team Conf AllWins FBSWins AllLoss SOS ProjSOS
Alabama SEC 6 6 0 0.583 0.597
LSU SEC 5 5 1 0.557 0.574
Florida SEC 5 4 0 0.609 0.530
Strongly positioned undefeated teams
Texas effectively controls its destiny by having entrenched 2nd/3rd place votes in a population of contenders that have at least one loss. If Texas wins out, they are going to Pasadena. It might seem hard to believe, but with an undefeated record, a very solid resume, and one of the strongest schedules in the country, Iowa is also in a decent position and could be a key beneficiary of a Texas loss (if you believe Iowa is capable of knocking off the Buckeyes and winning out).
We have seen solid strengthening in Texas' projected SOS over the last two weeks, and the computers will increasingly move in Texas' favor, particularly over the next three weeks. In addition, one of the biggest allies Texas might have is the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Nebraska is putting together a solid season and can be considered in the driver's seat for the North by beating Mizzou. If Nebraska comes into Dallas with a potential 11-1 or 10-2 type record, that could be a real platform game for Texas (if they need it).
I think this is less true for Iowa, but I think Texas can still have an outside shot of the NC game if they lose a game. However, I think Missouri is the only game they might be able to lose. Failing to beat OU would pretty much kill Texas' chances. Losing in Stillwater would also pretty devastating, given the timing later in the season, along with the fact it would be a head-to-head loss against a South foe.
Team Conf AllWins FBSWins AllLoss SOS ProjSOS
Iowa Big10 6 5 0 0.608 0.588
Texas BigXII 5 5 0 0.504 0.554
One loss teams in solid position
If Texas and Iowa suffer losses, I'd rank the teams with one loss that benefit the most in the following order:
Southern Cal has a big win over Ohio State, a very strong schedule, an earlier season loss to Washington, and the potential for a lot of quality wins. They are in great shape if a couple of teams in front of them can lose.
Virginia Tech also has a good resume, very solid schedule, an early loss (first game of the year) against a very good team... here's the unique thing that holds VT back... if Bama wins the SEC, will people really want to see a Bama/VT rematch? Probably not.
Ohio State suffered a last minute loss to a very good team, and has a reasonably difficult schedule. If USC can fall back with two or more losses, it removes a ceiling over tOSU and they can be in contention again.
Oregon has really started to play impressive football, and a win over USC would turn a lot of heads. They have to fight the problem of having lost to BSU, however. Although they've got a lot going in their favor, they'd probably be helped if BSU could lose a game or two.
Miami has a problem in that their schedule has peaked, and will weaken considerably over the next few weeks. They also get hurt if their marquee wins over OU, FSU, and GT get impaired if those teams continue to struggle. Additionally, they are behind the 8-ball in winning the ACC, given the loss to VT.
A one loss Texas probably gets slotted behind Ohio State and in front of Oregon in this pecking order, but it hinges greatly on when and to whom they lose.
Team Conf AllWins FBSWins AllLoss SOS ProjSOS
Southern Cal Pac10 4 4 1 0.539 0.585
Oregon Pac10 5 5 1 0.567 0.576
Virginia Tech ACC 5 5 1 0.726 0.573
Ohio State Big10 5 5 1 0.573 0.569
Miami FL ACC 4 3 1 0.655 0.547
Teams with an uphill battle
Undefeateds South Florida, TCU, Cincy and Boise are all really hurt by absolutely atrocious schedules, and they face an uphill battle in getting voters to believe they deserve a spot in the NC title game. Unless we start seeing losses pile up with all the other contenders, I continue to believe they are largely irrelevant. BCS conference members like Nebraska, KU, OkSt, PSU, and South Carolina all have respectable schedules and one lone loss. If they run the table and win their conferences, they can become a factor, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there. Notre Dame could turn heads by beating USC, and their schedule is decent (not great, but decent). They could certainly propel themselves higher in the pecking order with a win.
Team Conf AllWins FBSWins AllLoss SOS ProjSOS
Nebraska BigXII 4 4 1 0.582 0.544
Notre Dame Ind 4 4 1 0.525 0.541
South Carolina SEC 5 4 1 0.441 0.532
Penn State Big10 5 4 1 0.434 0.515
Kansas BigXII 5 4 0 0.407 0.499
Oklahoma St BigXII 4 3 1 0.424 0.491
South Florida BigE 5 3 0 0.258 0.473
TCU MWC 5 4 0 0.471 0.446
Cincinnati BigE 5 4 0 0.363 0.430
Boise St WAC 5 4 0 0.449 0.410
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