In the next couple of weeks, we will be able to start to get more granular and look at computer polls, as well as the Harris rankings. In the meantime, focusing on strength of schedule ("SOS") makes the most sense.
1. The number of undefeateds fell dramatically this week, with only 17 remaining. Four come from the SEC, and four come from the Big XII, so only two NC contenders could emerge from those 8. Three surprisingly come from the Big 10, but they weren’t the breadwinners we were expecting (Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin), and none of the three seems likely enough to win out, although crazier things have happened. Two come from the Big East (Cincinnati and USF), but the former has one of the worst SOS imaginable, while the latter lost its starting QB for the season. The Pac 10 has only one undefeated remaining, but few would expect UCLA to run the table. The remaining three are the so-called “BCS Busters” of TCU, Boise and Houston, but considering they have the three worst SOS outside of Cincinnati, their odds to compete against undefeateds is slim at best.
Team AllWins FBSWins AllLoss SOS ytpSOS ProjSOS
Iowa 4 3 - 0.856 0.577 0.638
LSU 4 4 - 0.587 0.610 0.609
Alabama 4 4 - 0.528 0.598 0.589
Wisconsin 4 3 - 0.313 0.636 0.566
Auburn 4 4 - 0.382 0.611 0.563
UCLA 3 3 - 0.396 0.588 0.555
Michigan 4 4 - 0.601 0.527 0.544
Texas 4 4 - 0.463 0.571 0.543
Missouri 4 3 - 0.313 0.590 0.543
Kansas 4 3 - 0.468 0.561 0.538
Florida 4 3 - 0.539 0.530 0.528
S Florida 4 2 - 0.246 0.552 0.464
Texas A&M 3 3 - 0.248 0.495 0.439
TCU 3 2 - 0.511 0.420 0.437
Cincinnati 4 3 - 0.422 0.399 0.407
Boise St 4 4 - 0.488 0.326 0.383
Houston 3 2 - 0.438 0.323 0.348
2. Texas is holding steady with a 0.543 projected SOS, not the world-beating SOS it had last year, but not entirely terrible, either. While I guess I could get concerned about Iowa having a really strong showing in SOS at this early stage, or UCLA projecting slightly higher than Texas at this point, let’s face it: until a barrage of one-loss teams say otherwise, this is heading toward an SEC vs. Big XII national title match-up. Also note the Texas and Florida SOS above do not include the boost from a potential conference championship game.
3. To confirm what others have said on this board, Texas is not well-positioned if they lose a game. Take a look at the SOS of key one-loss contenders. It’s not a pretty picture. And that doesn't include the potential one-loss LSU, Bama, and the like. Barring complete chaos (which has happened, with 2007 being most notable), Texas has slim chances to play for the national title with a loss. Not impossible, but slim.
Team AllWins FBSWins AllLoss SOS ytpSOS ProjSOS
Georgia 3 3 1 0.654 0.605 0.619
Ohio State 3 3 1 0.535 0.650 0.616
Oregon 3 3 1 0.699 0.576 0.610
USC 3 3 1 0.536 0.633 0.609
Oklahoma 2 1 1 0.426 0.611 0.570
Virg Tech 3 3 1 0.823 0.431 0.549
4. In what seemed a little surprising to me, the Big XII jumped the Pac10 and Big10 this week to become the second “strongest” conference in football, based purely on out-of-conference results. The SEC is a juggernaut at this stage, posting a very impressive 18-2 FBS win/loss record. I do suspect the SEC has played a softer schedule, and I will analyze that at some point, but it probably makes sense to wait to see how teams begin to play within their own conference before you can express judgment on how “strong” an out-of-conference schedule is. But let’s just put it this way: as tired as I get of hearing the SEC love nationally, we just have to grin and bear it, and agree. For now, the numbers don’t lie: the SEC is kicking major ass, it is the best conference in football, and whomever wins that conference should earn a spot in the NC game.
AllWins FBSWins AllLoss Win %
SEC 23 18 2 0.900
BigXII 32 23 10 0.697
Pac10 19 15 7 0.682
Big10 24 18 9 0.667
BigE 21 12 7 0.632
MWC 16 10 11 0.476
ACC 19 10 13 0.435
WAC 13 7 15 0.318
USA 16 7 17 0.292
SunB 8 5 19 0.208
MAC 13 7 29 0.194
No comments:
Post a Comment