BCS Projection/Analysis Week 2

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

First of all, let it be said: it’s highly unusual for there to be three undefeated BCS conference teams at the end of the year. It’s only happened once in the BCS era (2003), and most “controversies” have usually occurred when multiple one-loss teams are vying for a bid. So basically, it would be very unusual to see three or four undefeated teams at the end of the year. And it’s therefore not even really worth worrying about… yet.

But, if you believe the major contenders will win out, then yes, USC could become a problem. Will USC gain some “human” votes tomorrow? Yes. Will they have stronger computer rankings than Texas in a few weeks? At this stage, it looks like the answer is yes. Projecting ahead with all opponents (but bearing in mind this data includes only two whopping weeks of football), USC is well positioned relative to the other major contenders.

And with the Big 10 maddeningly eeking out wins (by the skin of their teeth) out of conference, they are now the second strongest conference in the country (for now). Which means PSU could also compete stronger in the computers than we would have initially expected.

Yes, the fact that OU and OSU have fallen from grace is less than ideal. Yes, the fact CU, UCF and UTEP are sucking beyond expectations is not good. But, I like how Texas’ schedule sets up later in the year, closing out with what is looking like a pretty good KU team, an improved A&M team, and a potentially strong north team in the title game (leaving a better “last impression,” which we learned last year is important). No, the Texas schedule is not as strong as it was in 2008, but it only matters to the extent the human vote gets down to razor thin margins… and we just have no idea.

So there’s just not really any good reason to be concerned (yet).
A) It’s very early
B) I really don’t believe we’ll have three or more undefeated teams
C) if schedule quality becomes a hot debate, Florida isn’t exactly in a great position, either
D) at least we really don’t have to worry about the three-way tie Big XII south scenario anymore (assuming all 3 teams have one conference loss in a round-robin, Texas would only have one loss total, while OU and OSU would have two total losses).

Early number crunching follows. SOS does not include potential conference championship games.

Major Contenders’ Projected SOS (with all opponents on schedule included)
Bama    0.615
LSU     0.614
USC     0.594
PSU     0.556
Miss    0.542
Texas   0.476
Florida 0.465
BYU     0.400

Conference Power Rankings (OOC win percentage)
SEC      0.818 
Big10    0.813 
BigXII   0.647 
Pac10    0.636 
BigE     0.571 
MWC      0.545 
ACC      0.462 
WAC      0.273 
SunB     0.231 
MAC      0.227 
USA      0.200