BCS Projection/Analysis Week 3

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

The USC loss today... was huge.... the fact the tOSU/USC winner went down in the following week is impossible to understate.

If Texas wins out, they are highly likely in.

There are only 29 (out of 120) undefeated teams left in FBS after a mere three weeks of action, and many of these teams are "pretenders." Below, you'll see the way the remaining undefeated teams are ranked, by order of most difficult schedule (projecting with all teams on their schedule, and obviously this is very early).

OK, so based on SOS, Texas is very middle of the pack. Yes, if you want to sweat out the fact PSU and Cal have stronger schedules (at this point), that might be a slight concern. Yes, the Big XII is not doing all that great (ranking 4th among the six major BCS conferences). But with USC losing today, the human votes are likely to remain entrenched with Florida and Texas until either team loses. Cal and PSU have an uphill battle on the human vote front.

Cal and PSU may be incremental "threats," but basically, I think Texas controls its destiny. Which may not have been entirely true when USC was undefeated.

******UNDEFEATED TEAMS (RANKED BY PROJ-SOS)******
Team          SOS  ProjSOS 
California   0.678  0.637 
Iowa         0.875  0.637 
Arizona St   0.222  0.625 
LSU          0.738  0.618 
Alabama      0.631  0.611  
Wisconsin    0.427  0.593 
UCLA         0.372  0.591 
Miami FL     0.917  0.581 
Auburn       0.598  0.572 
Indiana      0.489  0.571 
Penn State   0.467  0.564 
Michigan     0.524  0.540 
Kansas       0.467  0.539 
Texas        0.389  0.537 
Kentucky     0.148  0.532 
So Florida   0.154  0.530 
Pittsburgh   0.487  0.523 
No Carolina  0.694  0.522 
Mississippi  0.111  0.518 
Missouri     0.500  0.516 
Florida      0.400  0.511 
Cincinnati   0.578  0.456 
Texas A&M    0.190  0.429 
Hawai`i      0.515  0.398 
TCU          0.333  0.393 
Houston      0.476  0.385 
Sou Miss     0.417  0.371 
Boise St     0.511  0.367 
Colorado St  0.318  0.361 

******CONFERENCE RANKINGS (OUT OF CONF GAMES)******
         AllWins FBSWins  AllLoss  Win % 
SEC        19      14         2    0.875 
Pac10      19      15         6    0.714 
Big10      24      18         8    0.692 
BigXII     23      17         9    0.654 
BigE       16       9         5    0.643 
ACC        17       9        10    0.474 
MWC        13       7        11    0.389 
USA        13       6        13    0.316 
WAC         9       5        12    0.294 
SunB        8       5        16    0.238 
MAC        11       6        25    0.194