BCS Projection/Analysis Week 13

Note: this was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

Projection for tomorrow

I don't expect any change in the rankings tomorrow.
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. TCU
5. Cincy
6. Boise

Looking Ahead to the Final Week

Absent a stunning upset in Arlington, it will be Texas versus the Florida/Alabama winner for the national championship game in Pasadena. Thankfully, we don't need to focus on the scenario of a one-loss SEC conference champ going to the NC anymore.

So is there any way at all Texas could get hosed next week? One should never assign a zero percent possibility when human judgment may be a factor, but I see no scenario that will keep an undefeated Texas team from the national championship game with any meaningful plausibility. I understand how many of us are still paranoid, after the three-way tie debacle from 2008. Believe me, I understand. But there is just no way.

What if TCU jumps Texas?
TCU already has a weaker computer score than the Horns, and it's going to get worse. TCU also is done with its season, meaning they can't boost their stock with the voters. For TCU to have any chance whatsoever, they must have Cincinnati lose to Pitt, to ensure that TCU is not seeing its votes diluted by the Bearcats. Then, TCU needs the one-loss SEC team to not fall below Texas in the majority of the computers. This might allow TCU to stay within 0.01 of Texas in the computers. Then, TCU must see about 6 out of 10 human voters, all of whom already have Texas ranked ahead of them, switch their vote from Texas to TCU. The odds for this perfect storm are astronomical.

What if Cincy jumps Texas?
Cincy would have a better shot than TCU of edging Texas in the computers (they still outrank Texas in 3 of them), but I do expect Cincy's advantage to diminish tomorrow. However, there are two really big problems for Cincy in the final week. First, the Pitt game has lost a lot of its luster given the Panthers' loss to West Virginia. More importantly, TCU is taking a lot of their votes, and TCU is done for the year. Cincinnati cannot jump Texas.

What if the SEC loser stays ahead of Texas?
Yes, Florida and Alabama both have amazing schedule strength which will translate in the computers. The SEC has had an incredible year, and it really will benefit both of these teams. One could project that the loser of the SEC title game may stay ahead of Texas in several (if not a majority) of the computers. Even with this potential advantage, it would take abnormal voting behavior for the SEC runner-up to stay ahead of Texas. Let's use Alabama as the loser in this scenario (since they would be the greater threat). Even if Alabama remains ahead of Texas in every single computer poll (unlikely), and Cincinnati serves as a wedge between Bama and Texas in several computers (unlikely), AND Alabama received every #3 vote (putting them ahead of undefeated TCU, Cincy, and Boise on every single ballot), they would still be a full 0.01 behind Texas in the final BCS. You would need to start thinking about voter shenanigans, where voters would be putting a one-loss Bama ahead of Texas. That's not going to happen, especially when the coaches' ballots will be made public. I think my computer assumption above is extreme, so Texas would have a good amount of buffer to withstand voter manipulation, should any occur (which I don't think it will).

If Texas wins in Arlington, they are going to Pasadena.

Included below is the updated strength of schedule projections. Texas had a good weekend, and will likely have a top-20 schedule when all is said and done. Alabama and Florida are off the charts. The other three remain very weak.

TEAM       CUR SOS  Rk  PROJSOS  Rk
Florida     0.528   15   0.555    6
Bama        0.536   12   0.563    2
Texas       0.518   26   0.530   17
TCU         0.477   63   0.477   63
Cincy       0.465   80   0.487   52
Boise       0.453   91   0.440   93

Seeding the BCS Bowls

Now that we are in the homestretch, the easiest way to discuss the way the bowls might play out is to look at the BCS pecking order:

(1) Sugar
Pick: SEC runner-up
Reason: No brainer.

(2) Fiesta
Pick: Iowa
Reason: The Fiesta knows they will probably get stuck with a non-BCS school on their other slot, so I think they will jump on a BCS at large contender. OkSt losing means that Iowa may be the choice (as the Big 10 is really the last man standing for at-large candidates). If it were simply about which Big 10 team deserves it, there is no doubt: it's Iowa. Iowa has played a much tougher schedule, and of course, they beat PSU head-to-head. Some might say that PSU would be better for ratings and attendance. I'm not so sure. PSU has been a major disappointment in 2009, and has not exactly been electrifying in winning against weak competition. Conversely, Iowa has exceeded expectations significantly in 2009. Also, Iowa could bring better potential fan turnout based on their history. They had 20,000 fans come to a regular season game at AzSt in 2004, and they set an Orange Bowl record in 2003 with 47,000 tickets sold. Geographically, the Fiesta isn't that much of a stretch for Iowa either. I think Iowa makes the most sense at this point.

(3) Orange
Pick: TCU
Reason: This is a tough one. Maybe the Orange would think about taking Cincy, but then again, the Orange just had Cincy last year, which is probably just enough reason for the Orange to go with TCU. Geographically, TCU isn't as good of a fit here as they would be in either the Sugar or Fiesta. The Orange is hungry for taking a quality team after having been stuck with some really lousy/uninspiring match-ups the last few years. TCU is clearly a much higher quality team than the other undefeateds outside of the NC game (and it's not even close, in my view).

(4) Fiesta
Pick: Boise State
Reason: A few years ago in the Fiesta, BSU played in one of the most exciting games of all time, stunning OU in overtime. The Fiesta may hope to relive that experience by inviting Boise again. There is a slight shot USC could inch into the top 14 if they win out, and the Fiesta could be tempted to go with a higher ratings/fan base play. But that seems pretty slim to me.

(5) Sugar
Pick: Cincinnati
Cincinnati becomes the "plug" team after the other at larges have been set. They would be thrilled to have the opportunity to make their case against a high quality SEC team.

So this sequence of events would give us:

NC: Texas vs. SEC winner
Sugar: SEC runner-up vs. Cincy
Fiesta: Iowa vs. Boise
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Rose: Ohio State vs. Oregon

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 12

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

final update with real standings

Wow. Bama scored very well in the computers, getting a perfect 1.00 (only Andersen Hester has them lower than #1, and that gets dropped out of the calculation). They could become #1 after beating Auburn, but obviously, it doesn't really matter too much. Cincinatti, despite not playing a game, saw a spike in their computer rating. I really don't know why, but there it is. They have played the 61st most difficult schedule in the country (Texas has played the 26th most difficult), yet Massey, Sagarin Elo Chess and Wolfe have Cincy solidly ahead of Texas. By the way, those three computers are the ones I've had the hardest time forecasting lately. None of this changes my view that Texas is golden if they win out, but I am now beginning to wonder if TCU can hold Cincinatti off. In the event the Horns get stunned, I'm wondering if Cincy will be the primary beneficiary, getting the chance to play for the NC. Hopefully it's a moot point.

1:45p update with coaches and Harris polls

TCU scoring a little bit better than expected in both polls, but the gap between Texas and TCU will remain comfortable. Actually, that looks to be true throughout the top 6, where decent gaps exist between #1/#2, #2/#3, etc. Still think BCS should be unchanged for the top 6. Oklahoma State will be close to cracking the top 10 (maybe #11), and if Pitt falls below them after a potential loss to Cincy, OkSt may be top-10 in the final BCS poll. I really like their chances if they can pull it out in Norman.

Original post from last night

Overview

Fairly brief update this late night, as there's really not much to say. It's still looking like a destiny-match between the SEC winner and Texas. I do not expect the BCS to change meaningfully this week. Therefore, tomorrow's BCS should look like:

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. TCU
5. Cincy
6. Boise

I was slightly disappointed by Louisiana Monroe and UTEP losing to weak opponents (particularly the latter), but it really doesn't matter. Texas will have a top 20-ish schedule when all is said and done, which will ensure there will not be any threat from TCU or Cincy. If Texas wins out, they will be in Pasadena. TCU and/or Cincy will simply not be able to get enough votes, even if Texas struggles somewhat against A&M or Nebraska. If Texas has a "fluke" win where a bad call clearly should have resulted in a Texas loss, then sure, maybe TCU can leap Texas, but otherwise, I just don't see it. I also am not at all worried about the other scenario some posters have thrown out, where the loser of the SEC title game still stays ahead of Texas in the final BCS poll. There is no precedent for that kind of voting behavior, and I would be completely shocked. The SEC loser could have a slight computer edge over Texas, but they will not have any kind of edge over Texas in the human polls, which is 2/3 of the BCS score.

Bottom line, to reiterate -- Texas wins out, they go to Pasadena.

Here's the updated SOS data on the six undefeateds:

TEAM    CUR SOS   RNK    PROJ SOS   RNK
FLA      0.511     28     0.540     14
ALA      0.530     15     0.559      4
TEX      0.515     26     0.525     20
TCU      0.508     36     0.477     60
Cincy    0.478     61     0.487     51
Boise    0.434     95     0.435     92

At-Large and Bowl Seeding

The picture has become more clear-cut for the at-large bids, with only a handful of teams really in play at this stage. As mentioned in previous weeks, the SEC runner-up and TCU are virtual locks, leaving two at-large spots open. Boise State, Oklahoma State, and a Big 10 two loss team (Penn State and Iowa) are the key contenders. I think Iowa should be the favorite to be a potential Big 10 at large. Penn State has better fan support, but they also lost to Iowa head-to-head, and Iowa's played the better schedule.

Right now, I think Oklahoma State is in good shape if they can beat the Sooners in Norman (hungry fan base that's never been to a bowl game; technically rated higher in BCS than Big 10 contenders; respectable schedule). I would actually seed them ahead of BSU and the Big 10 in the at-large pecking order. If OkSt loses, then Boise and Big 10 become the defacto teams. If OkSt wins, I think Boise may still edge out the Big 10, but this really becomes less about BCS "science" and more about back-room bowl committee dealings, which are impossible to handicap. Having two non-BCS teams is still really a burden, and Boise is ending its season fairly unimpressively (mediocre competition). I'll still give the edge to Boise for now, but I have been wavering on this week by week. Interesting if we start to hear any bowl committee stories leak out to the press in the next week or two.

BCS Bowl Projections
NC: SEC winner vs. Texas
Sugar: SEC runner-up vs. Boise State
Fiesta: TCU vs. Oklahoma State
Rose: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Cincy
This post was edited on 11/22 1:52 PM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 11/22 3:46 PM by SynTex1

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 10

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

3p update with coaches and harris

TCU didn't get as much support as I expected in the Harris poll. I'll stick with them being #4 and Cincy #5, but there's a shot Cincy edges out TCU for #4. Still feel comfortable that Texas will fall to #3.

Original message from Saturday night

Overview

Texas fans can now be fully assured that an undefeated Longhorn team will be playing in Pasadena for the national title. Iowa's loss was clearly the big news, but the Hawkeyes were going to be in trouble, anyway, with some devastating developments on their schedule. The NC title picture is now clear as day, with the only real contenders (barring absolute chaos) being the six undefeated teams: Florida, Alabama, Texas, TCU, Cincy and Boise. The losses by Oregon, Penn State and ND really make the BCS bowl seeding outside of the NC game a lot more complicated. Two at large bids are wide open.

Projected BCS Standings

Alabama will jump Texas tomorrow, after Texas had narrowly jumped Alabama last week. Rick Tellshow, Sam Chi, and yours truly all mis-forecast that Bama would stay #2 last week... a sliver of an edge for Texas in Colley was what sealed the deal... by the narrowest of margins. Won't matter and won't be nearly as close this week, as Alabama will see significant computer re-strengthening by virtue of the win against LSU, as well as other games that favored their schedule. TCU was only slightly behind Cincy last week, and I think there's a good shot they jump Cincy this week. The #4 through #6 spots will be fairly tight, so it wouldn't be surprising if Cincy jumps to #4, for instance.

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. TCU
5. Cincy
6. Boise

Iowa Was Already Doomed

Even if Iowa was able to squeak out another win against a mediocre Big 10 team, their ability to position themselves in the NC picture was greatly impaired. The "strong SOS" that Iowa had earlier in the year (a perfect 1.00 computer score a few weeks ago) was a paper tiger. They benefited from lousy teams exceeding expectations (Iowa State, Arizona, etc.). They also had a big boost by not having the two weakest Big 10 teams on their schedule (Illinois and Purdue). Unfortunately, both benefits came crashing to earth, including Illinois and Purdue starting to beat some of Iowa's opponents. Iowa's top 5 SOS is no more (now down to #26). Even if they win out, they are completely irrelevant in the NC discussion.

SEC Picture Coming Into Focus

Alabama and Florida are on track to meet as undefeated divison winners for what would be a guaranteed NC game seed. Alabama seems highly unlikely to lose before the conference title game (@ MissSt, Chattanooga, @Auburn). Florida may have a potential trap game or two, but also looks likely to remain undefeated (@ South Carolina, FIU, FSU). We're getting late in the year, so if one of these two lost a game but then won the conference, it could get a little dicier to jump the other undefeated teams, but I think they would have a very good shot (Alabama in particular).

Sizing Up the Six Undefeated Teams

With the Hawkeyes out of the picture, the "pecking order" is pretty cut and dry. We are not going to see teams' computer strength change too much as the year goes on, although the SEC teams will strengthen slightly, Texas and TCU will weaken slightly, and Cincy may gain a little ground.

TEAM      CUR SOS  (RNK)   PROJ SOS  (RNK)
FLORIDA    0.535    (21)    0.538     (16)     
ALABAMA    0.562     (7)    0.557      (6)
TEXAS      0.533    (25)    0.521     (32)
TCU        0.502    (42)    0.477     (59)
CINCY      0.454    (67)    0.487     (54)
BOISE      0.431    (90)    0.432     (95)

So if Texas and the SEC winner are undefeated, there is no doubt what the NC game will be. If Florida or Bama lose a game but then win the SEC, I think they have a shot to jump into the #2 spot to play Texas, but I'll admit this is going to get harder to pull off with time running out in the season. If Texas loses, I can't believe I'm saying this, but either TCU or Cincy will play for the NC game (not sure which one... right now I'm thinking TCU, but Cincy may be able to jump ahead as the year goes on). If Texas, TCU and Cincy all lose a game, then Boise has a good shot to play for it all.

BCS Bowl Projections

A lot of teams keep shooting themselves in the foot for BCS bids. I really didn't think it was probable Notre Dame would climb high enough to be a factor in the BCS at large dialogue, but obviously, their stunning loss to Navy means complete elimination. Boise State did not really help their cause with a sloppy win over Louisiana Tech, and I still believe TCU (if they win out), will earn the sole automatic berth for "non-BCS" conferences. Boise is becoming a funky topic. I still think the bowl committees, especially with the difficult economy, are going to emphasize ratings and attendance over looking out for the little guy. Also, the fact Boise has already played in a BCS game may work against them. But there are not a lot of quality at-large contenders out there, and many/most of them have two losses (while BSU would have zero). So, I reluctantly have to acknowledge Boise may be able to secure a BCS bowl bid (unbelievable).

NC: SEC Winner vs. Texas
Fiesta: USC vs. TCU
Sugar: SEC Loser vs. Cincy
Rose: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Orange: George Tech vs. Boise State

Other at large candidates: Oklahoma State, Iowa, Penn State, Miami
This post was edited on 11/8 2:57 PM by SynTex1

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 9

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

7:00p update, with Harris results

Well, my hedge that I declared as being unlikely proved prescient. The win over OkSt did propel Texas higher than I expected in the computers. But the real reason Texas jumped to #2 was less about Texas coming ahead of expectations in the computers, but more about Alabama falling significantly in the computers. The one that really did them in was the surprising three notch drop from #3 to #6 in Wolfe. That basically allowed them to be effectively tied with Texas in the computers.

This may very well be a one-week phenomenon. Alabama, should they defeat LSU next week, will probably jump Texas to go back into the #2 spot. Also, Texas will see its SOS decrease somewhat as the year goes on, while Alabama will see it strengthen.

Glad I was wrong. Very cool for the Horns to be #2 in the BCS for the first time all year, and obviously, very well deserved.

5:00p update, with Harris results

Harris also generally as projected. Doesn't alter my last projection. Really not seeing how Texas jumps to #2. Sometimes, the computers do funky things after a team has a "big" win against a high quality opponent, so I could be underestimating the boost from OKSt, but I don't think it can be enough. Also, maybe Oregon gets slightly more love in the computers than I'm forecasting, which would still mean there's a slight shot they jump Boise. TCU/Cincy at #5/#6 is also a little tight. Big gaps between Florida/Alabama and Texas/Iowa.

11:50a update, with coaches poll results

The top three were within one point of my projection, reiterating my view that Texas will not jump Alabama for the #2 spot (which is apparently what Brad Edwards is projecting). If two or three computers break Texas' way, then they may edge out the Tide, but I still view this as unlikely (but never rule anything out completely). Other modest surprises were the fact that TCU jumped to the #4 spot in the coaches poll. The key that the Horned Frogs learned is winning convincingly, even if against a lousy opponent like uNLV, in a week where lots of votes are in play (given previous #4 USC's loss) can pay off big-time. Boise State really now has an uphill battle to ever jump TCU, because once voters put a team higher on their ballot, it is tough to get them moved back down. Boise's administrators better start greasing the wheels for a non-automatic bid, because they are going to have to make a case to the BCS bowl committees that they can make an invite economically viable.

The other modest surprise was that Oregon did not get as much of a boost with the impressive win over USC. I'm pretty surprised. If a team clobbers the #4 team in the country (and a team that many thought was the best overall, even though they lost to Washington), you would think they might be able to edge out one of the weaker undefeateds. This lack of a boost effectively kills Oregon's chances to really be relevant in the NC discussion (and they had a slim chance at best).

Updated projection changes slightly, but only on the bottom half:

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Iowa
5. TCU
6. Cincy
7. Boise
8. Oregon
9. LSU


Original message from late Saturday night

Overview

A fairly unremarkable Saturday in the NC race, notwithstanding USC's loss to Oregon (which wasn't all that surprising, really). The seven undefeateds remain undefeated. Two from the SEC (Bama and Florida), one from the Big XII (Texas), one from the Big 10 (Iowa), and three from weaker conferences (TCU, Cincy and Boise).

We are still down to the "elite nine," but the Ducks have swapped with the Trojans as the Pac 10 contender. Yet, Oregon faces some substantial hurdles (to be discussed).

My projection as of now:

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Iowa
5. TCU
6. Boise State
7. Oregon
8. Cincy
9. LSU


There is a modest probability Texas might jump Alabama into the #2 spot. I have projected some modest voter appreciation in favor of the Horns (and to the detriment of the Tide) based on a hugely impressive road win against the #14 team in the country. That said, I have been repeatedly surprised by how sticky the votes have been for the Tide (and the Gators) so far this year, and so when push comes to shove, Alabama probably still edges out Texas. But the margin is going to narrow considerably. Also... there is a shot Oregon could jump Boise (for now) in the BCS standings tomorrow, but it's difficult to assess what kind of boost Oregon will get in the human polls

Oregon?? What do we think??

Boise State fans should be pleased -- the big Oregon win against the Trojans puts the "human voters" in an awkward bind. Oregon, if not for the opening day loss in Boise, would be an incredibly strong one-loss contender. They would be in prime position to step in if some undefeated teams stumbled. They have the third most difficult schedule in the country (both current and projected). But... oh wait... they lost to Boise State. And Boise State is still undefeated. Any voter who puts Oregon ahead of Boise on their ballot should be shot, or at least mildly tortured. Much like we Longhorn fans (rightfully) trumpeted "45-35" last year on this message board to emphasize the meaning of a head-to-head victory, that sentiment must be enforced on Boise relative to Oregon. What a bizarre ceiling that hangs over the Ducks... they'd be in prime position to contend for the NC, if not for that loss. The computers will try to look through it, and give them a lot of benefit, but the human votes will keep them generally out of the NC picture. But it's a really strange dynamic, and the fact Oregon may edge out Boise this week will be a testament to how weird of a situation this will be.

Iowa's Fall From Grace

Iowa played yet another sloppy game, and had yet another "gutsy" come from behind win. Fine, let that be the story on which the media fixates. For those that want to look at the numbers, Iowa had a particularly rough weekend. Their opponents played to date had a very mediocre week, going 2-4 (Iowa State, Arkansas State, Michigan, and Michigan State lost, while PSU and Wisconsin won). Their projected schedule (counting all future opponents as well as opponents played to date) fell slightly, from 4th in the country to a still respectable 8th. I do not expect them to gain as many points as they probably should have from the humans this week, considering a lot of USC votes were in play. Iowa missed a real opportunity, and that effort against Indiana is only going to feed the skeptics. Yes, the Ohio State game could be a platform, but Iowa needs to be converting voters now, not later. I view the gap between Iowa and Texas to be too massive. Iowa should see its perfect 1.00 computer score fall this week. I firmly believe if Texas wins out, Iowa will be playing in Pasadena for the Rose Bowl, and not the national championship.

SEC still on track

The SEC schedules got stronger this week. Florida and Alabama remain in prime position (and LSU technically controls its destiny as well). I think even with a loss, the SEC conference winner will be playing for the national title.

What if Texas and Iowa lose

Texas generally held steady for its projected SOS this week, but it's still not good enough to withstand a loss, in my opinion (right now, 30th most difficult schedule in the country). I continue to believe if Texas loses a game, the loss will be too late in the year to overcome, and the North opponent will be too weak to help propel Texas. I also think Iowa has too many perception issues, despite their incredibly strong schedule, to be relevant in the NC discussion should they lose a game. That begs the question... who would play the SEC title winner if both Texas and Iowa stumble? I think TCU and Boise (ugh) would be in good shape, with Cincy not far behind. Do not underestimate how much benefit Boise got by virtue of the Ducks beating the Trojans. Boise's schedule is appalling (94th in the country), but they could become a firm #2/#3 in the event Texas and Iowa lose. TCU has a stronger schedule (68th in the country) and a big match-up against Utah coming up. It's hard to believe, but the BCS-busters may have their say if Texas and Iowa don't take care of business.

Seeding the Bowls

After the 6 BCS conference winners are slotted, that leaves four spots in play. TCU is in prime position to hold off Boise for the automatic "non-BCS" bid, and you have to believe the loser of the Alabama/Florida game also gets a bid. Right now, I think USC and Penn State are probably the other two at-large teams (meaning Boise may get "screwed"). Right now, I would project the bowls as:

NC: Florida vs. Texas
Sugar: Alabama vs. USC
Fiesta: Penn State vs. TCU
Rose: Iowa vs. Oregon
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Cincy

Below is the way the nine contenders rank as far as "current SOS" (W/L records and opp's opponents W/L records played to date) and "projected SOS" (counting all teams on the schedule). Note I now project Nebraska as the North champion, rather than KSU.

TEAM CUR SOS Rk ProjSOS Rk
Florida 0.577 8 0.541 16
Alabama 0.539 23 0.564 7
Texas 0.545 22 0.523 30
Iowa 0.557 15 0.560 8
TCU 0.494 43 0.466 68
Boise St 0.431 86 0.431 94
Oregon 0.594 3 0.576 3
Cincinnati 0.451 72 0.476 59
LSU 0.518 29 0.532 24


If you remain concerned Iowa poses a threat to Texas, and you want Texas to hold off the Hawkeyes in a worst case scenario.... root for the Big XII South against the North (obvious), but root for Nebraska to win the North. Root for Kansas State not to win the North. KSU has a terrible, terrible SOS, with two of their victories coming against sub-FBS teams, while Nebraska has a better resume. I really am not worried about Iowa, but we have lots of wedges between Texas and Iowa in the polls (Boise, TCU, Cincy, etc.) But if those teams all lose, and Iowa tries to pose any kind of threat, however remote, root for KSU not to go to Arlington.
This post was edited on 11/1 12:17 AM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 11/1 11:58 AM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 11/1 5:18 PM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 11/1 7:07 PM by SynTex1

Regarding Iowa

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

Iowa's perfect 1.00 computer score in today's BCS standings is eye-catching. Some are worried Iowa poses a threat to an undefeated Texas, based mostly on their schedule strength (which as I have noted for weeks, is quite strong). I continue to believe Iowa is not a serious threat to Texas. I will never rule anything out, because anything is possible, and maybe some dynamics unfold over the next few weeks to change the story... but I view it as highly unlikely that Iowa will jump Texas if both teams win out.

1. Iowa has peaked in the computers, and they have nowhere to go but down.

To start, let's use the blunt (but relevant) instrument of strength-of-schedule to understand why Iowa has peaked. The first column is the current SOS through Week 8; the second column is the "projected" SOS counting all opponents on the schedule. The third column is the change, with positive numbers indicating the teams that will strengthen, and negative meaning the opposite. I've sorted it from teams that will strengthen the most to those that will weaken the most. I know some guys (Tellshow in particular) like to forecast how the projected SOS will look if the higher ranked teams win during the rest of the year. I'd rather not make any assumptions, because CFB is inherently an unpredictable game.

TEAM        CUR SOS   PROJ SOS   Chg
Cincinnati   0.406     0.455    0.049 
Southern Cal 0.549     0.566    0.017 
Alabama      0.557     0.564    0.007 
LSU          0.545     0.539   (0.005)
Texas        0.537     0.528   (0.009)
Florida      0.559     0.533   (0.027)
Iowa         0.621     0.582   (0.039)
Boise St     0.464     0.420   (0.043)
TCU          0.526     0.466   (0.060)

Note Iowa's schedule will weaken substantially (0.039 winning percentage points), while Texas will hold generally stable. Also, Texas will eventually jump TCU, USC, etc., in several of the polls. Don't get me wrong.... I expect Iowa will still hold a computer advantage over Texas, but there is no way it will be the massive chasm (1.00 vs. 0.79) it is right now. I also think there is the potential for Alabama to be the #1 team ahead of Iowa if they win out, which further negates Iowa's relative advantage over Texas in the computers.


2. Iowa has played 8 games, while most others have played 7.

That's tangentially related to point 1, because it is slightly inflating Iowa's computer strength, but it's worth pointing out.

3. Iowa can, at best win 12 games, but Texas can win 13.

This is particularly important in Billingsley, based on the way it is computed (it should assure Texas remains ahead of Iowa in Billingsley), but it may help in other computers as well.

4. Iowa will be at home on the couch watching after November 21.

The Big 10 is perpetually hurt by not having late season games. Texas will have the opportunity to play in front of national audiences on Thanksgiving night and in early December in the conference title game. There have been times where a team that has the "last word" hurts themselves by playing poorly (think Cal in 2004 against Southern Miss), but all else equal, you'd like to have the last impression.

5. If you make Iowa a solid #3 because you think teams will lose, this will help Texas in the computers.

I don't think it is going to play out this way, but many are worried that Boise, Cincy, TCU, and USC will all lose a game, making it a clear cut Iowa vs. Texas argument. Clearly, now that Texas no longer has much of a shot to get to the NC game with a loss, we should all put our rally caps on and root for all those contenders, because they are taking votes from the Hawkeyes. But if all those teams lose, that is to Texas' advantage in the computers. As I said earlier, I don't think Iowa will have a perfect 1.00 computer score at the end of the season, but Texas will be much more competitive against Iowa in the computers if there is a scorched earth among the other contenders. And I still don't think Iowa cracks much of a dent in Texas' human vote tally (discussed in the next point). Yes, if Texas is a perfect #2 in the human polls and a perfect #3 in the computers, and Iowa is a perfect #1 in the computers and a perfect #3 in the human polls, it would be a tie. But it's not going to be that clean. Some computers will start going against Iowa (see point 1), and Iowa may not clean up all the #3 votes (think about the Florida/Bama loser... do they throw a wrench into this?).

6. Texas enjoys solid support in the human polls, and votes are very sticky.

Looking at the coaches poll, Texas has 1390 points among 59 voters. We know for a fact that they are getting 4 first place votes. But if you do the math, almost all voters have Texas within the top three of their ballots... almost half of them (about 28 out of 59, by my estimate) have Texas ranked #1 or #2. Some voters will shift based on the latest fad, but a majority of votes are usually pretty sticky, meaning Iowa has an uphill fight in getting much needed support in the human polls. The fact that Iowa ranks a lowly 8th in the coaches poll (behind most of the other contenders) is a reflection of how they are viewed by the voters.

7. Iowa's body of work is... flawed.

It is really hard to get over the near-opening day loss at home against Northern Iowa (blocked FG at the end of the game). UNI is no Appy State. UNI is 5-3 overall, and Southern Illinois and South Dakota State have beaten UNI by more convincing margins than Iowa did. Iowa also played extremely poorly against lowly Arkansas State (2-4). I would like to point out that Louisiana Monroe (a team that Texas thumped) beat ASU by twice the margin that Iowa did, although we know football is not transitive. Iowa has also posted skin of their teeth wins against Michigan and Michigan State, neither of which has really been considered to be strong teams. Maybe Texas stinks up the joint against a KU or an A&M, but in the meantime, Texas' wins have been much more dominating.

8. Everyone believes Texas is the superior team.

There is no mainstream CFB source I am aware of that thinks Iowa goes to the NC unless Texas loses. Because human opinion is crucial in the BCS, when people believe something to be so, they make it so. If we start to hear a meaningful groundswell of people go pro-Iowa, we can start to become concerned.

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 8

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

8:00 p.m. update

Was generally pleased with the accuracy of my computer forecasts, but the two main things I missed:

1) I grossly underestimated how many computers TCU would win over with the victory over BYU
2) I underestimated Iowa's power surge in the computers. I expected a strong showing, but not a perfect 1.00. It didn't matter, I was still correct in putting Iowa at #4. There's still a massive gap between Iowa and Texas.

The new topic is clearly going to be concerns about Iowa. I'm still not concerned. I'll post the details in a separate thread. With the BCS standings out and digested, it's probably logical to let this thread fall (thanks to the mods for pinning!)

3:50 p.m. update

Harris penalized the Trojans a lot more than I was counting on. Still think Iowa clocks in at #4, but Boise may be able to hold off Cincy and USC to stay in the top 5. I know a couple of posters think I might be putting TCU too low, but I'm not sure I see how they can jump much higher than 8th. My projected gap between Southern Cal and TCU is pretty significant. Maybe a couple of computers will swing the Horn Frogs' way.

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Iowa
5. Boise
6. Cincy
7. Southern Cal
8. TCU
9. LSU
10. Oregon

11:30 a.m. update

Final update before the actual release, includes the coaches poll. I then extrapolate Harris, with some minor tweaks to capture their biases. I think it's pretty likely Boise is falling, and they may fall to #7 (depends on Cincy's computer scores and human votes). For those scoring at home, Bama actually gained a point in the coaches poll (unbelievable), while Florida shed five points, and Texas gained four. Not a flattering week for the coaches' poll at all, in my opinion, but it really doesn't matter.

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Iowa
5. Southern Cal
6. Boise
7. Cincy
8. TCU
9. LSU
10. Oregon

10:00 a.m. update

Guys, I'm an idiot. I didn't sort a couple of rows right on my spreadsheet, so I understated where I think USC should be (which is higher). Below is my updated projection. It includes the actual rankings from Sagarin, which generally played out as I expected, although Iowa surprised by getting the #1 ranking in that poll. The margin between BSU, Southern Cal and Iowa is going to be very tight. It's not inconceivable BSU gets jumped by USC and/or Iowa. USC should really be kicking itself... a solid win over Oregon State and they probably would have easily jumped to #4. TCU and Cincinnati probably remain lower in the polls. Also, the gap between Texas and Bama is tighter than I initially expected. Don't think it's too likely, but there is an outside (5%) chance Texas jumps Bama. We'll know a lot more when the coaches poll is released.

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Boise State
5. USC
6. Iowa
7. Cincy
8. TCU
9. LSU
10. Oregon


Original message from last night...

Damn those Hawkeyes. They have been squeaking out many games, week after week, but the TD as time expired on a slant route against Michigan State may have taken the cake. Another close win (on the road), and Iowa remians undefeated, en route to what projects as the 6th most difficult schedule in all of college football. Unfortunately for Iowa, the razor-thin nature of their season could be their undoing for a potential NC bid. Although I believe their computer scores will remain incredibly strong (3rd in the country behind only Florida and Alabama), they will have an uphill fight to jump Texas in the human polls, based on how much they have struggled in so many games. In particular, the near-losses against Arkie State and Northern Iowa are real problems. Iowa remains a headache for many teams that aspire to the NC game, but I view it as highly, highly unlikely that an undefeated Iowa would leapfrog an undefeated Texas in the BCS standings, due mostly to the fact that the Hawkeyes will have an extremely difficult time converting human voters; although they could have an impressive resume of gutsy road wins, the margin of victory is probably going to hold them back.

Projected BCS Standings
I think Texas is going to gain meaningful ground in both the Coaches and Harris polls on the duo of leaders in the SEC, but the computer poll deficit is too wide for Texas to jump to the #2 spot in the BCS standings. I have Cincy and Iowa basically tied in my estimates, but I'm going to bump Iowa ahead of Cincinatti by virtue of playing a stronger opponent. This is the way I would guess the BCS standings look tomorrow afternoon:
'
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Boise State
5. Iowa
6. Cincy
7. USC
8. TCU
9. LSU

Week 8 Developments
There were a lot of close games today, but other than the Canes going down in OT to Clemson, very little changed as far as national title contenders went. Iowa's narrow win assured there will remain seven undefeateds(assuming BSU wins tonight against Hawaii): two from the SEC (Florida/Alabama), one from the Big XII (Texas), one from the Big 10 (Iowa), and three from weaker conferences (Cincy/TCU/Boise). I now think it is best to think of the leading NC candidates in terms of the "elite nine": seven of which are undefeated, and two that have one loss (USC and LSU). The seven undefeateds are clearly in the running because they have yet to lose, USC is in the running because of substantial media support and a fairly strong schedule, and LSU is in the running because it still technically controls its destiny in the SEC conference.

Behind the "elite nine" (which also happen to be the top 9 in the BCS) we have a few contenders that stand ready to step in the mix if chaos ensues (like it did in 2007). These teams includes Oregon, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Penn State, and West Virginia. These teams have only one loss, and respectable schedules, with the opportunity to create noise by winning a big game in the next few weeks (i.e., Okla State beats Texas, Oregon beats USC, WV beats Cincy, etc.). I'm not going to waste your time looking at these "second tier" NC contenders, because that would require chaos. And despite the "gritty" games we are witnessing week by week, the fact of the matter is, the favorites are generally winning, and the leading, dominant teams are taking care of business, even if they are doing it in ugly fashion. If chaos unfolds in the next week or two, we can focus more on the second tier, but in the meantime, we'll focus on the 9 main contenders.

Sizing up the Nine Contenders

I continue to believe the SEC conference winner is almost guaranteed a NC berth. Florida and Bama's lousy efforts against MSU and Tennessee, respectively, may throw a slight curve ball at that argument, but the SEC ranks as the strongest conference in CFB (bar none), and the media generally continues to believe that the SEC winner deserves one of the two NC spots, assuming that winner has only one loss. Florida, Alabama and LSU all control their destiny. Florida has seen its schedule hold firm, while Alabama and LSU have seen their very strong schedules weaken over the last couple of weeks. I don't think it matters too much -- they are still top 20/30 quality schedules. LSU may seem like a stretch, but think about how much love they will be getting if they beat Bama in conference play and Florida in the title game. They will be a lock (not necessarily as the top seed... Texas could earn the #1 ranking in that scenario... but I think they hold off an undefeated Iowa).

I also continue to believe Texas controls its destiny. Tonight's solid effort from Missouri will certainly help. Texas is the default #2/#3 vote on most human ballots, and it will take several squeakers by Texas, combined by impressive wins from Iowa, to change that dynamic. The Texas schedule took it on the chin this week (more on that at the end of this summary), but it is still respectable, meaning Texas will not have a computer detriment that will overcome what should be fairly solid scores on the coaches and Harris polls.

Iowa, assuming they win out (which apparently they might, as shocking as that might seem), is in the catbird's seat if Texas loses. Their schedule is off-the-charts, especially as Arizona and Iowa State continue to exceed expectations. I think it would be borderline criminal if a one-loss USC jumped an undefeated Iowa, especially considering the advantage Iowa will enjoy in the computers. But I know USC is a popular team.

USC needs both Texas and Iowa to lose to get to the NC. There might be some controversy about leaping the weak undefeateds, but USC's schedule is strong, their quality wins would be impressive (many of these coming on the road, including Cal, Oregon, Ohio State and ND), and at the end of the day, I think they would deserve it more than the weak undefeateds.

I'm sorry, I know I give the weak undefeateds little respect, but the math doesn't lie. TCU, Cincy and Boise continue to have terribly weak schedules (as you can see below). Boise has the win over Oregon, but if USC also beats Oregon, that victory loses clout. Cincy still has games against Pitt and WV, so maybe they don't run the table. TCU is being hurt by the fact the MWC is no where near as strong as it was in 2008. If Texas, Iowa and USC all lose, they may become relevant, but I would think the second tier I mentioned earlier (Okla State, GT, etc.) could still jump them. At this point, I think it is a fairly low probability any of these teams will be playing in the NC. The more interesting question will be whether we see two "non-BCS" schools get BCS bids in the same year (TCU and Boise). As other BCS schools continue to pile up losses, that may be an increasing possibility.

Strength of Schedule of the "Elite 9"
Team       CurSOS    ProjSOS   Rank
Florida    0.559     0.533      27
Alabama    0.557     0.564      10
Texas      0.537     0.528      31
Boise      0.464     0.420      96
Cincy      0.406     0.455      77
Iowa       0.521     0.582       6
USC        0.549     0.566       9
TCU        0.526     0.466      68
LSU        0.545     0.539      22

Official Downgrade of a One-Loss Texas' Chances
Texas' SOS took it on the chin this week. As we look ahead, I was expecting a high-quality (Nebraska) North opponent in the conference title game. NU's stunning loss to ISU means that is now fairly remote. I'm literally projecting KSU as the opponent in Arlington, which is depressing on some level. Texas now projects at the 31st most difficult schedule in the country, and they continue to rely on teams such as Louisiana Monroe, Colorado, and UTEP to win games week by week. If you really want to think about a one-loss Texas team's chances, you must think about the reality of losing a game against a South foe (Oklahoma State) that keeps them out of the conference title game altogether, or about how late in the season (against KU in Austin? against A&M in CS?) such a loss would be occurring. Basically, I don't really see a scenario where Texas loses from this point forward, and still gets to the NC game. The loss would be too late, the North opponent would be too weak, or the schedule would not help enough in the computers. If you tell me Texas loses in Stillwater, but they still win the South, and then Iowa, USC, Boise, TCU, and a couple of others all lose, then yes, there's a shot. But basically, it looks like Texas needs to win out to go to have any reasonable probability of playing for it all in Pasadena.

This post was edited on 10/24 11:31 PM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 10/25 10:14 AM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 10/25 10:15 AM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 10/25 10:15 AM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 10/25 11:34 AM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 10/25 3:59 PM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 10/25 8:08 PM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 10/25 8:09 PM by SynTex1

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 7

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

PROJECTED BCS RANKINGS
It's fairly likely the initial BCS rankings will be:

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas

A large gap will exist between Texas and the #4 team, which will be either Boise State or USC. I didn't spend too much time agonizing over which one will be #4 or #5, as USC will steadily gain strength as the year progresses, and will comfortably outrank BSU if they continue to win out.

UNDEFEATEDS
As I've done every week, let's begin with a tally of the undefeateds. Two more went down this weekend, meaning there are only seven undefeated teams remaining. Two come from the SEC (Alabama and Florida), one from the Big 10 (Iowa), one from the Big XII (Texas), and three from weaker conferences (TCU, Cincy and Boise State).

PUTTING CONTENDERS INTO TRANCHES
I think the easiest way to think about the national title contenders is to put them into tranches: SEC contenders, undefeated contenders, strong one-loss contenders, weak one-loss contenders, and undefeated pretenders.

SEC Contenders
As I discussed last week (and as most CFB fans readily acknowledge), the SEC winner is highly assured to have a seed in the NC game. Alabama and LSU are in particularly strong shape, even with one loss. Florida may have to sweat a little bit of computer weakness in the event they drop a regular season game, but I still believe they would garner at least a #2 BCS ranking when all is said and done.

Team            Conf  AllWins  FBSWins  AllLoss  SOS  ProjSOS  Rank 
 Alabama         SEC      7        7        -    0.572  0.584     4 
 LSU             SEC      5        5        1    0.559  0.564    11 
 Florida         SEC      6        5        -    0.601  0.534    29 

Undefeated Contenders
For the second straight week, the strong undefeated contenders (outside the SEC) are Texas and Iowa. If Texas wins out, they will go to the national title (do not let anyone's foolish reporting convince you otherwise). I will discuss Texas' chances as a one-loss contender later. Iowa's big win in Madison has them in good shape, but they still face a couple of key Big 10 tests. Ohio State going down against Purdue may rob the Hawkeyes of a potential "quality win." Iowa does not get much love by the pundits, and they still have some big games to win, but if they win out, they will very much be a factor in the NC discussion. Iowa boasts a SOS ranking #7 nationally, but note this has been drifting lower over the last few weeks.

 Team            Conf  AllWins  FBSWins  AllLoss  SOS  ProjSOS  Rank 
 Iowa            Big10    7        6        -    0.622  0.571     7 
 Texas           BigXII   6        6        -    0.547  0.541    21 

Strong One-Loss Contenders
Virginia Tech and Ohio State fell out of this group with their losses. Basically, USC is in prime shape here. If USC knocks off Oregon, they will have a multitude of quality wins, and will be in excellent shape should Texas and Iowa stumble. Oregon's schedule ranks very impressively, and if they knock-off USC, they could have a lot of momentum. I would worry about the difficulty of jumping Boise State (which I don't think is a valid contender)... that early season loss by such a significant margin may keep Oregon challenged. Miami is a weaker contender here, as their SOS continues to weaken, but Miami's NC chances went up significantly today with VT's loss to GT. If VT loses another game, Miami can win the ACC outright and be in decent position.

 Team            Conf  AllWins  FBSWins  AllLoss  SOS  ProjSOS  Rank 
 Oregon          Pac10    5        5        1    0.584  0.582     5 
 Southern Cal    Pac10    5        5        1    0.534  0.563    12 
 Miami FL        ACC      5        4        1    0.584  0.538    27 

Weak One-Loss Contenders
GT, Oklahoma State and Penn State could make some noise if they win out, but their schedules are probably not strong enough to make them premiere contenders. Keep an eye on them if chaos prevails among the other contenders.

 Team            Conf  AllWins  FBSWins  AllLoss  SOS  ProjSOS  Rank 
 Georgia Tech    ACC      6        5        1    0.578  0.511    41 
 Oklahoma St     BigXII   5        4        1    0.461  0.509    42 
 Penn State      Big10    6        5        1    0.483  0.509    43 

Undefeated Pretenders
TCU, Cincy and Boise State's schedules are simply too weak to merit serious NC consideration, and they do not appear to have enough voter support to help offset what will become a substantial computer detriment.

 Team            Conf  AllWins  FBSWins  AllLoss  SOS  ProjSOS  Rank 
 TCU             MWC      6        5        -    0.521  0.467    64 
 Cincinnati      BigE     6        5        -    0.415  0.444    77 
 Boise St        WAC      6        5        -    0.483  0.418    96 

What if Texas loses a game
If Texas loses a game (but is still able to win the Big XII), I think they might have an outside shot to still get back in the NC picture. With the SEC locking up one spot in the NC game, Texas would probably need the following teams to lose:

Iowa
USC
Oregon (presumably losing to USC>

I know a lot of you might roll your eyes. "Texas hasn't proven anything." "Texas hasn't played a great schedule." That might be true, but it's turning into a chaotic year in college football. There's not a lot of quality teams out there right now. If you eliminate all teams with two losses, the fact that we can really only talk about a dozen legitimate contenders in mid-October is saying something. Honestly, Texas could still be in contention as long as the loss doesn't occur too late (hopefully not in November) and doesn't keep them from going to Dallas to win the Big XII. Oklahoma State could be a backbreaker, as that is really the best quality opponent remaining on Texas' schedule, and a loss in Stillwater could keep Texas from winning the South.