BCS Projection/Analysis Week 6

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

With almost half the college football season behind us, the picture is becoming clearer for the universe of contenders for a berth in the national championship.

The remaining undefeateds
There are only nine undefeated teams remaining in the FBS: two of them from the SEC (Florida and Alabama), two of them from the Big XII (Texas and Kansas), two of them from the Big East (USF and Cincy), one from the Big 10 (Iowa), and two of them from "non-BCS" schools (Boise and TCU).

The SEC is in prime position
With LSU failing to knock-off the top ranked Gators, it is looking increasingly probable that Florida will take an undefeated record into the SEC championship game. Alabama appears equally strong. If LSU can claw its way back into relevance by stunning Alabama and then knocking off Florida in a potential re-match, they would also be in prime shape. With the SEC posting off-the-charts dominance in its out-of-conference performance (albeit against some weaker competition), and with the conference's national perception of strength surging through the roof, it is clear that the SEC winner is almost guaranteed a bid in the NC game. A one-loss Florida gets a tad dicey with the weaker schedule, but the voter love probably keeps them solidly in the top 2. The only way I envision the SEC doesn't get a NC game spot? If chaos reigns... resulting in the SEC winner having two losses.

Team           Conf    AllWins FBSWins AllLoss  SOS     ProjSOS
Alabama        SEC        6       6       0     0.583     0.597
LSU            SEC        5       5       1     0.557     0.574
Florida        SEC        5       4       0     0.609     0.530

Strongly positioned undefeated teams
Texas effectively controls its destiny by having entrenched 2nd/3rd place votes in a population of contenders that have at least one loss. If Texas wins out, they are going to Pasadena. It might seem hard to believe, but with an undefeated record, a very solid resume, and one of the strongest schedules in the country, Iowa is also in a decent position and could be a key beneficiary of a Texas loss (if you believe Iowa is capable of knocking off the Buckeyes and winning out).

We have seen solid strengthening in Texas' projected SOS over the last two weeks, and the computers will increasingly move in Texas' favor, particularly over the next three weeks. In addition, one of the biggest allies Texas might have is the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Nebraska is putting together a solid season and can be considered in the driver's seat for the North by beating Mizzou. If Nebraska comes into Dallas with a potential 11-1 or 10-2 type record, that could be a real platform game for Texas (if they need it).

I think this is less true for Iowa, but I think Texas can still have an outside shot of the NC game if they lose a game. However, I think Missouri is the only game they might be able to lose. Failing to beat OU would pretty much kill Texas' chances. Losing in Stillwater would also pretty devastating, given the timing later in the season, along with the fact it would be a head-to-head loss against a South foe.

Team           Conf    AllWins FBSWins AllLoss  SOS     ProjSOS
Iowa           Big10      6       5       0     0.608     0.588
Texas          BigXII     5       5       0     0.504     0.554   

One loss teams in solid position
If Texas and Iowa suffer losses, I'd rank the teams with one loss that benefit the most in the following order:

Southern Cal has a big win over Ohio State, a very strong schedule, an earlier season loss to Washington, and the potential for a lot of quality wins. They are in great shape if a couple of teams in front of them can lose.

Virginia Tech also has a good resume, very solid schedule, an early loss (first game of the year) against a very good team... here's the unique thing that holds VT back... if Bama wins the SEC, will people really want to see a Bama/VT rematch? Probably not.

Ohio State suffered a last minute loss to a very good team, and has a reasonably difficult schedule. If USC can fall back with two or more losses, it removes a ceiling over tOSU and they can be in contention again.

Oregon has really started to play impressive football, and a win over USC would turn a lot of heads. They have to fight the problem of having lost to BSU, however. Although they've got a lot going in their favor, they'd probably be helped if BSU could lose a game or two.

Miami has a problem in that their schedule has peaked, and will weaken considerably over the next few weeks. They also get hurt if their marquee wins over OU, FSU, and GT get impaired if those teams continue to struggle. Additionally, they are behind the 8-ball in winning the ACC, given the loss to VT.

A one loss Texas probably gets slotted behind Ohio State and in front of Oregon in this pecking order, but it hinges greatly on when and to whom they lose.

Team           Conf    AllWins FBSWins AllLoss  SOS     ProjSOS
Southern Cal   Pac10      4       4       1     0.539     0.585
Oregon         Pac10      5       5       1     0.567     0.576
Virginia Tech  ACC        5       5       1     0.726     0.573
Ohio State     Big10      5       5       1     0.573     0.569
Miami FL       ACC        4       3       1     0.655     0.547

Teams with an uphill battle
Undefeateds South Florida, TCU, Cincy and Boise are all really hurt by absolutely atrocious schedules, and they face an uphill battle in getting voters to believe they deserve a spot in the NC title game. Unless we start seeing losses pile up with all the other contenders, I continue to believe they are largely irrelevant. BCS conference members like Nebraska, KU, OkSt, PSU, and South Carolina all have respectable schedules and one lone loss. If they run the table and win their conferences, they can become a factor, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there. Notre Dame could turn heads by beating USC, and their schedule is decent (not great, but decent). They could certainly propel themselves higher in the pecking order with a win.

Team           Conf    AllWins FBSWins AllLoss  SOS     ProjSOS
Nebraska       BigXII     4       4       1     0.582     0.544
Notre Dame     Ind        4       4       1     0.525     0.541
South Carolina SEC        5       4       1     0.441     0.532
Penn State     Big10      5       4       1     0.434     0.515
Kansas         BigXII     5       4       0     0.407     0.499
Oklahoma St    BigXII     4       3       1     0.424     0.491
South Florida  BigE       5       3       0     0.258     0.473
TCU            MWC        5       4       0     0.471     0.446
Cincinnati     BigE       5       4       0     0.363     0.430
Boise St       WAC        5       4       0     0.449     0.410

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 5

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

After hearing a member of the media recently say, "Florida can probably lose to LSU but still compete for a national championship"... (a pathetic attempt to sandbag for the almighty Tebow)... it got me thinking... is that really true?

Probably. But only because the voter love (and the valid perception that the SEC is a tough conference) really works in Florida's favor. However, it could get dicey for the Gators down the stretch if they lost a game, as the computers are really not going to be their ally. In addition to playing an out-of-conference schedule that is looking more appalling by the week (Florida State, Charleston Southern, Troy and FIU), the Gators played an easier version of the SEC West in 2009, missing out on ranked Auburn, Ole Miss and Alabama. Of course, Florida would potentially play Bama in the SEC championship, but even when factoring that in, their resume (purely by the numbers) would pale in comparison when sized up against other one-loss contenders. But I'm not naive to the love. If Florida wins the SEC, even with a blemish in Baton Rouge, they would probably go to Pasadena.

Here's my way of grouping the contenders at this point:

Undefeated teams that can afford to lose a game:
LSU and Alabama are in this group. They have brutal schedules, and they could drop a regular season game, but win the SEC championship game (presumably against Florida) and easily punch their ticket to the NC. They are in very good shape. Reluctantly, the media love also means Florida falls into this camp.

Undefeated teams that probably can't lose a game, but don't count them out:
This is where I put Texas, along with Iowa and Auburn. In the case of Texas, their human "perception" could help them alleviate what is a less impressive SOS (but not as bad as many on this board think), but the lack of potential high profile wins could hurt the Horns. I wouldn't rule the Horns out if they lose to a Missouri or Oklahoma State type game. You'd need a half dozen or so games to break Texas' way, but crazier things have happened. Iowa and Auburn have fairly difficult schedules, but they don't have the "cache" with the humans... but they could still contend with a one-loss record.

Undefeated teams that can probably get to Pasadena if they stay undefeated, but can't lose a game:
Wisconsin, Missouri, Kansas. Lower on the totem poll, but come from decent conferences. Schedules and cache keep them out with a loss, though.

Undefeated teams that really have little chance:
USF, TCU, Cincy and Boise State. Uphill battles on the perception of the toughness of their schedules, and the math pretty much supports it.

One-loss teams that are in prime position to compete:
USC, Ohio State, Oregon, Virginia Tech, and Miami They have some big games yet to play (less true with tOSU, but the PSU game will still be big), and their schedules rank fairly well. Although Miami has played a strong schedule to date, there will be a strong drop-off in their numbers from here on out. However, if OU gets its act together and still wins 9 or 10 games, the Miami victory over OU could really help their cause. Miami is probably marginal in this category.

This is always a fun time of year. What seems obvious in early October can be turned on its head. Except in 2005. Yeah... that was pretty nice the way that worked out. Let's go with 2005 if we can.

Team            Wins   FBSWins  Loss     SOS     ProjSOS
LSU               5       5       0     0.553     0.619
Iowa              5       4       0     0.646     0.613
Alabama           5       5       0     0.569     0.606
Southern Ca       4       4       1     0.547     0.603
Ohio State        4       4       1     0.587     0.595
Oregon            4       4       1     0.565     0.587
Auburn            5       5       0     0.470     0.568
Virginia Te       4       4       1     0.703     0.563
Texas             4       4       0     0.525     0.542
Wisconsin         5       4       0     0.482     0.539
Florida           4       3       0     0.488     0.530
Penn State        4       4       1     0.505     0.528
Miami FL          3       3       1     0.667     0.522
Missouri          4       3       0     0.320     0.511
Kansas            4       3       0     0.416     0.500
South Flori       5       3       0     0.277     0.478
TCU               4       3       0     0.446     0.438
Cincinnati        5       4       0     0.349     0.424
Boise St          5       4       0     0.408     0.386

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 4

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

In the next couple of weeks, we will be able to start to get more granular and look at computer polls, as well as the Harris rankings. In the meantime, focusing on strength of schedule ("SOS") makes the most sense.

1. The number of undefeateds fell dramatically this week, with only 17 remaining. Four come from the SEC, and four come from the Big XII, so only two NC contenders could emerge from those 8. Three surprisingly come from the Big 10, but they weren’t the breadwinners we were expecting (Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin), and none of the three seems likely enough to win out, although crazier things have happened. Two come from the Big East (Cincinnati and USF), but the former has one of the worst SOS imaginable, while the latter lost its starting QB for the season. The Pac 10 has only one undefeated remaining, but few would expect UCLA to run the table. The remaining three are the so-called “BCS Busters” of TCU, Boise and Houston, but considering they have the three worst SOS outside of Cincinnati, their odds to compete against undefeateds is slim at best.

Team    AllWins FBSWins AllLoss   SOS    ytpSOS  ProjSOS 
Iowa        4      3       -     0.856   0.577   0.638 
LSU         4      4       -     0.587   0.610   0.609 
Alabama     4      4       -     0.528   0.598   0.589 
Wisconsin   4      3       -     0.313   0.636   0.566 
Auburn      4      4       -     0.382   0.611   0.563 
UCLA        3      3       -     0.396   0.588   0.555 
Michigan    4      4       -     0.601   0.527   0.544 
Texas       4      4       -     0.463   0.571   0.543 
Missouri    4      3       -     0.313   0.590   0.543 
Kansas      4      3       -     0.468   0.561   0.538 
Florida     4      3       -     0.539   0.530   0.528 
S Florida   4      2       -     0.246   0.552   0.464 
Texas A&M   3      3       -     0.248   0.495   0.439 
TCU         3      2       -     0.511   0.420   0.437 
Cincinnati  4      3       -     0.422   0.399   0.407 
Boise St    4      4       -     0.488   0.326   0.383 
Houston     3      2       -     0.438   0.323   0.348

2. Texas is holding steady with a 0.543 projected SOS, not the world-beating SOS it had last year, but not entirely terrible, either. While I guess I could get concerned about Iowa having a really strong showing in SOS at this early stage, or UCLA projecting slightly higher than Texas at this point, let’s face it: until a barrage of one-loss teams say otherwise, this is heading toward an SEC vs. Big XII national title match-up. Also note the Texas and Florida SOS above do not include the boost from a potential conference championship game.



3. To confirm what others have said on this board, Texas is not well-positioned if they lose a game. Take a look at the SOS of key one-loss contenders. It’s not a pretty picture. And that doesn't include the potential one-loss LSU, Bama, and the like. Barring complete chaos (which has happened, with 2007 being most notable), Texas has slim chances to play for the national title with a loss. Not impossible, but slim.

Team    AllWins FBSWins AllLoss   SOS    ytpSOS  ProjSOS 
Georgia     3      3       1     0.654    0.605   0.619 
Ohio State  3      3       1     0.535    0.650   0.616 
Oregon      3      3       1     0.699    0.576   0.610 
USC         3      3       1     0.536    0.633   0.609 
Oklahoma    2      1       1     0.426    0.611   0.570 
Virg Tech   3      3       1     0.823    0.431   0.549

4. In what seemed a little surprising to me, the Big XII jumped the Pac10 and Big10 this week to become the second “strongest” conference in football, based purely on out-of-conference results. The SEC is a juggernaut at this stage, posting a very impressive 18-2 FBS win/loss record. I do suspect the SEC has played a softer schedule, and I will analyze that at some point, but it probably makes sense to wait to see how teams begin to play within their own conference before you can express judgment on how “strong” an out-of-conference schedule is. But let’s just put it this way: as tired as I get of hearing the SEC love nationally, we just have to grin and bear it, and agree. For now, the numbers don’t lie: the SEC is kicking major ass, it is the best conference in football, and whomever wins that conference should earn a spot in the NC game.

         AllWins FBSWins AllLoss  Win % 
SEC        23      18      2      0.900 
BigXII     32      23     10      0.697 
Pac10      19      15      7      0.682 
Big10      24      18      9      0.667 
BigE       21      12      7      0.632 
MWC        16      10     11      0.476 
ACC        19      10     13      0.435 
WAC        13       7     15      0.318 
USA        16       7     17      0.292 
SunB        8       5     19      0.208 
MAC        13       7     29      0.194

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 3

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

The USC loss today... was huge.... the fact the tOSU/USC winner went down in the following week is impossible to understate.

If Texas wins out, they are highly likely in.

There are only 29 (out of 120) undefeated teams left in FBS after a mere three weeks of action, and many of these teams are "pretenders." Below, you'll see the way the remaining undefeated teams are ranked, by order of most difficult schedule (projecting with all teams on their schedule, and obviously this is very early).

OK, so based on SOS, Texas is very middle of the pack. Yes, if you want to sweat out the fact PSU and Cal have stronger schedules (at this point), that might be a slight concern. Yes, the Big XII is not doing all that great (ranking 4th among the six major BCS conferences). But with USC losing today, the human votes are likely to remain entrenched with Florida and Texas until either team loses. Cal and PSU have an uphill battle on the human vote front.

Cal and PSU may be incremental "threats," but basically, I think Texas controls its destiny. Which may not have been entirely true when USC was undefeated.

******UNDEFEATED TEAMS (RANKED BY PROJ-SOS)******
Team          SOS  ProjSOS 
California   0.678  0.637 
Iowa         0.875  0.637 
Arizona St   0.222  0.625 
LSU          0.738  0.618 
Alabama      0.631  0.611  
Wisconsin    0.427  0.593 
UCLA         0.372  0.591 
Miami FL     0.917  0.581 
Auburn       0.598  0.572 
Indiana      0.489  0.571 
Penn State   0.467  0.564 
Michigan     0.524  0.540 
Kansas       0.467  0.539 
Texas        0.389  0.537 
Kentucky     0.148  0.532 
So Florida   0.154  0.530 
Pittsburgh   0.487  0.523 
No Carolina  0.694  0.522 
Mississippi  0.111  0.518 
Missouri     0.500  0.516 
Florida      0.400  0.511 
Cincinnati   0.578  0.456 
Texas A&M    0.190  0.429 
Hawai`i      0.515  0.398 
TCU          0.333  0.393 
Houston      0.476  0.385 
Sou Miss     0.417  0.371 
Boise St     0.511  0.367 
Colorado St  0.318  0.361 

******CONFERENCE RANKINGS (OUT OF CONF GAMES)******
         AllWins FBSWins  AllLoss  Win % 
SEC        19      14         2    0.875 
Pac10      19      15         6    0.714 
Big10      24      18         8    0.692 
BigXII     23      17         9    0.654 
BigE       16       9         5    0.643 
ACC        17       9        10    0.474 
MWC        13       7        11    0.389 
USA        13       6        13    0.316 
WAC         9       5        12    0.294 
SunB        8       5        16    0.238 
MAC        11       6        25    0.194

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 2

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

First of all, let it be said: it’s highly unusual for there to be three undefeated BCS conference teams at the end of the year. It’s only happened once in the BCS era (2003), and most “controversies” have usually occurred when multiple one-loss teams are vying for a bid. So basically, it would be very unusual to see three or four undefeated teams at the end of the year. And it’s therefore not even really worth worrying about… yet.

But, if you believe the major contenders will win out, then yes, USC could become a problem. Will USC gain some “human” votes tomorrow? Yes. Will they have stronger computer rankings than Texas in a few weeks? At this stage, it looks like the answer is yes. Projecting ahead with all opponents (but bearing in mind this data includes only two whopping weeks of football), USC is well positioned relative to the other major contenders.

And with the Big 10 maddeningly eeking out wins (by the skin of their teeth) out of conference, they are now the second strongest conference in the country (for now). Which means PSU could also compete stronger in the computers than we would have initially expected.

Yes, the fact that OU and OSU have fallen from grace is less than ideal. Yes, the fact CU, UCF and UTEP are sucking beyond expectations is not good. But, I like how Texas’ schedule sets up later in the year, closing out with what is looking like a pretty good KU team, an improved A&M team, and a potentially strong north team in the title game (leaving a better “last impression,” which we learned last year is important). No, the Texas schedule is not as strong as it was in 2008, but it only matters to the extent the human vote gets down to razor thin margins… and we just have no idea.

So there’s just not really any good reason to be concerned (yet).
A) It’s very early
B) I really don’t believe we’ll have three or more undefeated teams
C) if schedule quality becomes a hot debate, Florida isn’t exactly in a great position, either
D) at least we really don’t have to worry about the three-way tie Big XII south scenario anymore (assuming all 3 teams have one conference loss in a round-robin, Texas would only have one loss total, while OU and OSU would have two total losses).

Early number crunching follows. SOS does not include potential conference championship games.

Major Contenders’ Projected SOS (with all opponents on schedule included)
Bama    0.615
LSU     0.614
USC     0.594
PSU     0.556
Miss    0.542
Texas   0.476
Florida 0.465
BYU     0.400

Conference Power Rankings (OOC win percentage)
SEC      0.818 
Big10    0.813 
BigXII   0.647 
Pac10    0.636 
BigE     0.571 
MWC      0.545 
ACC      0.462 
WAC      0.273 
SunB     0.231 
MAC      0.227 
USA      0.200

Preseason Look at BCS/Strength of Schedule

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

Overview
▪ Despite an appalling out-of-conference schedule, Texas projects in the middle of the pack in terms of its schedule strength (“SOS”), when compared to the consensus preseason Top 10 teams.

▪ Texas played the nation’s most difficult schedule in 2008, but its 2009 schedule is significantly easier (36th out of 120 FBS schools).

▪ The main risk Texas faces in keeping its SOS respectable for BCS posturing purposes is the strength of the Big XII, which was essentially tied with the SEC in 2008 as the best conference in football.

▪ Although a repeat of 2008 seems unlikely, Texas is very poorly positioned for another 3-way tie in the Big XII South (presumably between Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State), as the other teams possess far stronger schedules.


I. Top 10 SOS Analysis
As followers of the BCS know very well, the computer rankings contribute 1/3 of a team’s BCS calculation, and those computers are highly influenced by a team’s win/loss record and SOS. To analyze the contenders for the preseason, I have projected each team’s SOS. To be technical, I analyzed each team's opponents W/L records and opponents’ opponents W/L records using their 2009 schedule, but with the team records posted in 2008 (including bowls, and excluding non-FBS victories). Using the top 10 contenders based on a consensus of preseason polls, I arrive at the following:

Team Schedule Rankings (Overall SOS, out of 120 FBS teams)
1. Oklahoma State (2)
2. Oklahoma (5)
3. Virginia Tech (12)
4. Texas (36)
5. Florida (38)
6. Southern Cal (53)
7. Ohio State (69)
8. Penn State (89)
9. Mississippi (95)
10. Alabama (98)

Note that the above does not include potential conference championship games, which would be expected to improve SOS for teams such as the Big XII, SEC and ACC contenders. Clearly, the Big XII is in the catbirds seat based on this projection, with the SEC teams at a disadvantage (Alabama is a serial offender of having a terrible schedule, and 2009 is no exception). Southern Cal, despite playing Ohio State, is hampered by the recent weakness of its home conference.


II. Understanding Texas’ 2009 SOS
The main risk, of course, of using 2008 data for a 2009 preseason projection is that teams are materially different from year to year. The team in particular that jumps out on Texas’ schedule is Texas Tech, which posted a 9-2 (excluding 2 non-FBS victories) record, but seems highly unlikely to repeat such a strong record given personnel losses. With that said, Texas’ 2009 schedule is expected to be significantly less impressive than 2008, by virtue of four terrible non-BCS opponents out of conference:

Texas Longhorns 2009 Out-of-conference Schedule (2008 W/L)
Louisiana Monroe (3-8)
Wyoming (3-8)
UTEP (5-7)
Central Florida (3-8)

These schools are even worse because they have posted sub-0.500 records in particularly weak conferences (captured in their opponents’ opponents calculations). So as an example, even though UTEP posted a 5-7 record and A&M posted a 4-8 record, the latter is actually less harmful to strength-of-schedule because A&M played much more difficult opponents than UTEP.

Obviously, Texas would appreciate help from Louisiana Monroe, Wyoming, UTEP and Central Florida if they would outperform their 2008 mediocrity. But I suspect as you see these teams pop up on the score ticker when you are watching a game on a Saturday, you’ll tend to see them on the losing end. If any kind of BCS horserace develops as the year goes on, it will be imperative for these teams to at least tread water in their weaker conferences.


III. Can the Big XII repeat its excellence?
Texas played four top-10 quality teams consecutively in 2008, which tremendously helped its national credibility. But how did this happen? Quite simply, the Big XII posted a very strong out-of-conference record (indicated below), allowing more of its teams to have higher quality (at times undefeated) records later in the season.

2008 Conference Rankings (out-of-conference winning percentage)
1. SEC (0.723)
2. Big XII (0.711)
3. Big East (0.650)
4. Mountain West (0.629)
5. ACC (0.614)
6. Big Ten (0.571)
7. Pac 10 (0.500)
8. WAC (0.343)
9. Conference USA (0.319)
10. MAC (0.316)
11. Sun Belt (0.224)

The main risk I worry about is that the Big XII does not keep up with its lofty 2008 standards. As a result of the terrible out-of-conference schedule discussed earlier, it could leave Texas vulnerable in competing against other teams. These concerns would be more pressing in the case of one-loss contenders jockeying for position. I also would be shocked to see the Pac 10 post a terrible year like they did in 2008 (where they merely broke even out of conference, which is one of the worst achievements ever for a BCS conference). Any upside posted by the Pac 10 would be very helpful to contenders such as USC and Oregon, especially since they play 9 conference games on their schedule (compared to 8 for most other teams).


IV. What about a 3-way tie?
My point on the 3-way tie scenario in the Big XII South can be fairly brief: Texas has really put itself behind the eight ball relative to the schedules of Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. With Oklahoma playing Miami, Tulsa and BYU out-of-conference, and with Oklahoma State playing Georgia, Houston and Rice, it appears they will have huge advantages on SOS which will pad their computer stats. Of course, if Texas and Oklahoma were the highest ranked teams (as they were last year, with Tech ranked third) in this three way tie, the human vote may favor Texas as they would compensate for Texas getting the short end of the stick in 2008. For what it’s worth, I think lighting hitting twice on this controversy is unlikely.


V. Final Thoughts
Mack Brown indicated that they would talk to BCS experts during this offseason to try and get a better sense of what they can do better in the future. We will grant the Texas Athletic Department that modifying the 2009 schedule in the spring of 2009 is nearly impossible given the short time frame, but for future reference…. This season’s schedule is exactly what not to do for the BCS. As I said earlier, it is needlessly putting Texas behind the 8-ball. One does not have to schedule Ohio State type teams every year to help their cause in the BCS. There is a middle ground. But scheduling 4 non-BCS teams with a combined record of 14 wins and 31 losses?

Most FBS teams believe in having one or two cupcakes on their schedule, and that is fine. But to put itself in better position to compete in the BCS, without necessarily risking an early season loss, Texas should either be scheduling middle to lower rung BCS conference opponents (4-8 to 7-5 type records, programs the stature of Minnesota, Louisville, etc.), or middle to higher end non-BCS schools (9-3 type records in weak conferences, such as Tulsa, Air Force, etc.).

I know one big counterargument: teams like Central Florida that had been moderately decent a few years ago have gotten worse since then. It’s hard to predict what will be a decent team three years from now. But you can’t tell me anyone thought Wyoming, Louisiana Monroe, UTEP and UCF was ever expected to be considered a half-way decent schedule.

You get the sense something slipped through the cracks. I can’t fully remember, but maybe a team backed out of their commitment to playing Texas this year. But if Mack is serious about taking a look at the BCS, there needs to be a major change in the scheduling philosophy.
This post was edited on 7/9 4:29 PM by SynTex1

BCS 2008 Post Mortem (from a still hurting Longhorn)

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

On a random April Saturday, sitting and watching the NFL draft, an unexpected painful memory was put in front of us. When Michael Crabtree got selected, there it was again for everyone to see, twisting the knife. His “highlight” for which he had become famous. Three different angles on the replay. The mind-boggling breakdown in coverage between two defenders that not only ruined what could have been an undefeated regular season, but also became the first bizarre incident in a three way tie nightmare that ended excruciatingly for Texas.

Frankly, a lot of the days since that point in time, I’ve really tried to just forget about what happened. It was such a cruel convergence of events that ultimately kept the Horns behind the Sooners in that crucial weekend of the BCS rankings. Yes, so another dramatic Longhorn postseason win, this time against the Buckeyes, was a good consolation prize. But now that six months have passed since “Black Sunday,” I’m going to try and take a look back, as objectively as possible, at why the BCS played out the way I did.

I would like to begin by apologizing to you all, as I did that day when it became clear Texas was not going to pull it out. I am sorry that my final BCS prediction -- as many caveats and contingencies as I placed on it late the night before -- was wrong. No doubt, I was much more confident in calling Texas over Cal in 2004, as the computer lead for Texas was substantial, the math was clear cut, and the number of swayed voters needed was minimal. The 2008 Texas/OU call was much more to the wire. So late on that Saturday night, after the dust had settled after the Sooners beat the Cowboys, I made my call. But when I woke up bright and early the next morning, and saw that the Sagarin poll had gone in the Sooners’ favor, I knew that my prediction was in serious jeopardy. Although I kept it my original prediction on the board “for the record,” I essentially indicated at that point on Sunday morning the Horns faced an uphill battle they were unlikely to win.

So what the heck happened? Why was it this close and why did it not work out for Texas? The following should hopefully shed some light. The reality is that many of these factors, by themselves, would not have propelled OU ahead of Texas… it was the fateful combination of a lot of these factors that came together at the very last moment in OU’s favor, allowing them to face the impotent Missouri Tigers in a joke of a conference title game, and ultimately gain a seed in the national title game.

So let’s begin. This is a lot to chew on.

“Exit Polling” Failed as a Reliable Indicator
Two-thirds of the BCS, as you know, is driven by the “human” voters, the coaches and Harris polls. For weeks leading up to the final weekend, the Big XII three way tie scenario had become abundantly clear to the press. Dozens of hours were spent nationally on ESPN Gameday, sports radio, talk shows, and other forums about the “what ifs.” What if Texas and OU were locked in a three way tie with Texas Tech? Given this media dialogue was an excellent way to keep a finger on the pulse of voter sentiment, especially for the media-influenced Harris Poll, I closely followed these shows. I don’t have a scientific tracking to present, but I assure you that the vast majority of media that commented on this issue indicated Texas should be ranked ahead of OU, with the 45 to 35 outcome in Dallas being cited. Even at midnight, when the ESPN commentators provided their final take, this sentiment was still strong. So that influenced my subjective prediction on the human vote. Yes, Texas did pick up human votes in the final week, so the directionality of the movements indicated this was not an unreasonable expectation. Unfortunately, the magnitude of the human vote movement was below what I expected.

What Have You Done for Me Lately?
The obvious lesson is the later you impress the voters, the better. Texas had an uphill battle by having its win over OU occur in the first half of the year. OU’s win over Tech was much more recent, and even though the Texas/OU game was on a neutral field, while OU’s win over Tech was in their own friendly confines, and the Texas loss to Tech was in a hostile environment, voters tend to favor recency.

Strength of Schedule Becomes an S.O.S.
During the season’s final weeks, OU’s schedule was only going to get stronger, and Texas’ was going to get weaker. Clearly, when OU still had to play Tech and OSU, while Texas was playing KU and A&M, the advantages were sizable in OU’s favor. However, with about two weeks remaining before the crucial BCS vote, I still believed that Texas would hold OU off in the computers given the fact their SOS would remain slightly better than OU. Unfortunately, a string of horrible luck began to unfold, where Longhorn opponents were losing, and Sooner opponents were winning. In fact, in the last two weeks of the season, 10 games went OU’s way, with only 5 games going Texas’ way (one we’ll talk more about in a minute). Clearly, the strength of schedule consideration, which had been substantially pro-Texas for most of the year, basically fell apart at crunch time.

"Cosmetics" of OU Victory over OSU
The OU win was not necessarily convincing. In fact, in the fourth quarter, the score was 44-41, and OSU had significant momentum. Unfortunately, the game began to fall apart, and OU ultimately prevailed 61-41, including an almost comical touchdown within the game’s last minute. Do not misconstrue what I say: OU was clearly the better team, and they posted a solid win. However, the 20 point margin did not really capture how close the game was, and for the human polls’ lazier voters who did not see the game, that misleading final score may have resulted in some (and we may mean very incremental) benefit to OU at Texas’ expense.

A Fateful Kick in Lincoln
Colorado at Nebraska was a crucial game in deciding the BCS, because it was a pure match-up between a Texas opponent and an Oklahoma opponent. Nebraska kicked an amazing field goal as time expired to win the game. I have had a lot of time to study this. Several of the computers were very close. I know for a fact OU would have been one notch lower in Colley if the score were reversed. I actually contacted all of the computer polls’ creators to ask them, hypothetically, what their poll would have looked like if they were reversed. A few were friendly, a few never responded, but all indicated that they would not recalculate, just to see. In fact, one even said he would not be able to go back and re-run it. Considering how important their calculations are to the seeding of the national championship, I definitely think the “audit trail” for recalculating their results is questionable (with the exception of Colley Matrix). But I digress. The main point is a Colorado win would have gone a long way to have cut down the OU computer lead. A few human voters would probably have had to switch as well, but it’s another heartbreaking element of the way the BCS unfolded.

Parting Thoughts
Texas was doomed early Sunday morning. As I mentioned, when Sagarin came out pro-OU at the crack of dawn, it was all over. As a Longhorn fan, it was a sickening feeling to realize that despite all of the anticipation, the arguments, the analysis, and the fruitless rooting interests in peripheral games, it was all over.

What about the 45-35 campaign? There were a lot of good talking points and great coverage, but it’s pretty much impossible to tell if it convinced any voters, or irritated them. Let me just say this: with a three-way tie, it is a function that cannot be solved, and so subjective tiebreakers must instead be used. I’m not going to be intellectually dishonest and say I don’t understand why OU got the edge. They were a strong team, they made a good case, and they had a lot of things go in their favor. Who knows, maybe in some cosmic Karma phenomenon, perhaps Texas had drawn too much and was due to get hosed. After the 2004 drama (Okla St comeback, KU comeback, Rose Bowl Bid, VY show), 2005 magical season (Okla St comeback and the greatest national championship of all time), and countless Colt McCoy comebacks in 2006 through 2008, we have been blessed as a fan base. Maybe it was time to pay the piper. But man... it still hurts.