Regarding Iowa

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

Iowa's perfect 1.00 computer score in today's BCS standings is eye-catching. Some are worried Iowa poses a threat to an undefeated Texas, based mostly on their schedule strength (which as I have noted for weeks, is quite strong). I continue to believe Iowa is not a serious threat to Texas. I will never rule anything out, because anything is possible, and maybe some dynamics unfold over the next few weeks to change the story... but I view it as highly unlikely that Iowa will jump Texas if both teams win out.

1. Iowa has peaked in the computers, and they have nowhere to go but down.

To start, let's use the blunt (but relevant) instrument of strength-of-schedule to understand why Iowa has peaked. The first column is the current SOS through Week 8; the second column is the "projected" SOS counting all opponents on the schedule. The third column is the change, with positive numbers indicating the teams that will strengthen, and negative meaning the opposite. I've sorted it from teams that will strengthen the most to those that will weaken the most. I know some guys (Tellshow in particular) like to forecast how the projected SOS will look if the higher ranked teams win during the rest of the year. I'd rather not make any assumptions, because CFB is inherently an unpredictable game.

TEAM        CUR SOS   PROJ SOS   Chg
Cincinnati   0.406     0.455    0.049 
Southern Cal 0.549     0.566    0.017 
Alabama      0.557     0.564    0.007 
LSU          0.545     0.539   (0.005)
Texas        0.537     0.528   (0.009)
Florida      0.559     0.533   (0.027)
Iowa         0.621     0.582   (0.039)
Boise St     0.464     0.420   (0.043)
TCU          0.526     0.466   (0.060)

Note Iowa's schedule will weaken substantially (0.039 winning percentage points), while Texas will hold generally stable. Also, Texas will eventually jump TCU, USC, etc., in several of the polls. Don't get me wrong.... I expect Iowa will still hold a computer advantage over Texas, but there is no way it will be the massive chasm (1.00 vs. 0.79) it is right now. I also think there is the potential for Alabama to be the #1 team ahead of Iowa if they win out, which further negates Iowa's relative advantage over Texas in the computers.


2. Iowa has played 8 games, while most others have played 7.

That's tangentially related to point 1, because it is slightly inflating Iowa's computer strength, but it's worth pointing out.

3. Iowa can, at best win 12 games, but Texas can win 13.

This is particularly important in Billingsley, based on the way it is computed (it should assure Texas remains ahead of Iowa in Billingsley), but it may help in other computers as well.

4. Iowa will be at home on the couch watching after November 21.

The Big 10 is perpetually hurt by not having late season games. Texas will have the opportunity to play in front of national audiences on Thanksgiving night and in early December in the conference title game. There have been times where a team that has the "last word" hurts themselves by playing poorly (think Cal in 2004 against Southern Miss), but all else equal, you'd like to have the last impression.

5. If you make Iowa a solid #3 because you think teams will lose, this will help Texas in the computers.

I don't think it is going to play out this way, but many are worried that Boise, Cincy, TCU, and USC will all lose a game, making it a clear cut Iowa vs. Texas argument. Clearly, now that Texas no longer has much of a shot to get to the NC game with a loss, we should all put our rally caps on and root for all those contenders, because they are taking votes from the Hawkeyes. But if all those teams lose, that is to Texas' advantage in the computers. As I said earlier, I don't think Iowa will have a perfect 1.00 computer score at the end of the season, but Texas will be much more competitive against Iowa in the computers if there is a scorched earth among the other contenders. And I still don't think Iowa cracks much of a dent in Texas' human vote tally (discussed in the next point). Yes, if Texas is a perfect #2 in the human polls and a perfect #3 in the computers, and Iowa is a perfect #1 in the computers and a perfect #3 in the human polls, it would be a tie. But it's not going to be that clean. Some computers will start going against Iowa (see point 1), and Iowa may not clean up all the #3 votes (think about the Florida/Bama loser... do they throw a wrench into this?).

6. Texas enjoys solid support in the human polls, and votes are very sticky.

Looking at the coaches poll, Texas has 1390 points among 59 voters. We know for a fact that they are getting 4 first place votes. But if you do the math, almost all voters have Texas within the top three of their ballots... almost half of them (about 28 out of 59, by my estimate) have Texas ranked #1 or #2. Some voters will shift based on the latest fad, but a majority of votes are usually pretty sticky, meaning Iowa has an uphill fight in getting much needed support in the human polls. The fact that Iowa ranks a lowly 8th in the coaches poll (behind most of the other contenders) is a reflection of how they are viewed by the voters.

7. Iowa's body of work is... flawed.

It is really hard to get over the near-opening day loss at home against Northern Iowa (blocked FG at the end of the game). UNI is no Appy State. UNI is 5-3 overall, and Southern Illinois and South Dakota State have beaten UNI by more convincing margins than Iowa did. Iowa also played extremely poorly against lowly Arkansas State (2-4). I would like to point out that Louisiana Monroe (a team that Texas thumped) beat ASU by twice the margin that Iowa did, although we know football is not transitive. Iowa has also posted skin of their teeth wins against Michigan and Michigan State, neither of which has really been considered to be strong teams. Maybe Texas stinks up the joint against a KU or an A&M, but in the meantime, Texas' wins have been much more dominating.

8. Everyone believes Texas is the superior team.

There is no mainstream CFB source I am aware of that thinks Iowa goes to the NC unless Texas loses. Because human opinion is crucial in the BCS, when people believe something to be so, they make it so. If we start to hear a meaningful groundswell of people go pro-Iowa, we can start to become concerned.

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 8

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

8:00 p.m. update

Was generally pleased with the accuracy of my computer forecasts, but the two main things I missed:

1) I grossly underestimated how many computers TCU would win over with the victory over BYU
2) I underestimated Iowa's power surge in the computers. I expected a strong showing, but not a perfect 1.00. It didn't matter, I was still correct in putting Iowa at #4. There's still a massive gap between Iowa and Texas.

The new topic is clearly going to be concerns about Iowa. I'm still not concerned. I'll post the details in a separate thread. With the BCS standings out and digested, it's probably logical to let this thread fall (thanks to the mods for pinning!)

3:50 p.m. update

Harris penalized the Trojans a lot more than I was counting on. Still think Iowa clocks in at #4, but Boise may be able to hold off Cincy and USC to stay in the top 5. I know a couple of posters think I might be putting TCU too low, but I'm not sure I see how they can jump much higher than 8th. My projected gap between Southern Cal and TCU is pretty significant. Maybe a couple of computers will swing the Horn Frogs' way.

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Iowa
5. Boise
6. Cincy
7. Southern Cal
8. TCU
9. LSU
10. Oregon

11:30 a.m. update

Final update before the actual release, includes the coaches poll. I then extrapolate Harris, with some minor tweaks to capture their biases. I think it's pretty likely Boise is falling, and they may fall to #7 (depends on Cincy's computer scores and human votes). For those scoring at home, Bama actually gained a point in the coaches poll (unbelievable), while Florida shed five points, and Texas gained four. Not a flattering week for the coaches' poll at all, in my opinion, but it really doesn't matter.

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Iowa
5. Southern Cal
6. Boise
7. Cincy
8. TCU
9. LSU
10. Oregon

10:00 a.m. update

Guys, I'm an idiot. I didn't sort a couple of rows right on my spreadsheet, so I understated where I think USC should be (which is higher). Below is my updated projection. It includes the actual rankings from Sagarin, which generally played out as I expected, although Iowa surprised by getting the #1 ranking in that poll. The margin between BSU, Southern Cal and Iowa is going to be very tight. It's not inconceivable BSU gets jumped by USC and/or Iowa. USC should really be kicking itself... a solid win over Oregon State and they probably would have easily jumped to #4. TCU and Cincinnati probably remain lower in the polls. Also, the gap between Texas and Bama is tighter than I initially expected. Don't think it's too likely, but there is an outside (5%) chance Texas jumps Bama. We'll know a lot more when the coaches poll is released.

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Boise State
5. USC
6. Iowa
7. Cincy
8. TCU
9. LSU
10. Oregon


Original message from last night...

Damn those Hawkeyes. They have been squeaking out many games, week after week, but the TD as time expired on a slant route against Michigan State may have taken the cake. Another close win (on the road), and Iowa remians undefeated, en route to what projects as the 6th most difficult schedule in all of college football. Unfortunately for Iowa, the razor-thin nature of their season could be their undoing for a potential NC bid. Although I believe their computer scores will remain incredibly strong (3rd in the country behind only Florida and Alabama), they will have an uphill fight to jump Texas in the human polls, based on how much they have struggled in so many games. In particular, the near-losses against Arkie State and Northern Iowa are real problems. Iowa remains a headache for many teams that aspire to the NC game, but I view it as highly, highly unlikely that an undefeated Iowa would leapfrog an undefeated Texas in the BCS standings, due mostly to the fact that the Hawkeyes will have an extremely difficult time converting human voters; although they could have an impressive resume of gutsy road wins, the margin of victory is probably going to hold them back.

Projected BCS Standings
I think Texas is going to gain meaningful ground in both the Coaches and Harris polls on the duo of leaders in the SEC, but the computer poll deficit is too wide for Texas to jump to the #2 spot in the BCS standings. I have Cincy and Iowa basically tied in my estimates, but I'm going to bump Iowa ahead of Cincinatti by virtue of playing a stronger opponent. This is the way I would guess the BCS standings look tomorrow afternoon:
'
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Boise State
5. Iowa
6. Cincy
7. USC
8. TCU
9. LSU

Week 8 Developments
There were a lot of close games today, but other than the Canes going down in OT to Clemson, very little changed as far as national title contenders went. Iowa's narrow win assured there will remain seven undefeateds(assuming BSU wins tonight against Hawaii): two from the SEC (Florida/Alabama), one from the Big XII (Texas), one from the Big 10 (Iowa), and three from weaker conferences (Cincy/TCU/Boise). I now think it is best to think of the leading NC candidates in terms of the "elite nine": seven of which are undefeated, and two that have one loss (USC and LSU). The seven undefeateds are clearly in the running because they have yet to lose, USC is in the running because of substantial media support and a fairly strong schedule, and LSU is in the running because it still technically controls its destiny in the SEC conference.

Behind the "elite nine" (which also happen to be the top 9 in the BCS) we have a few contenders that stand ready to step in the mix if chaos ensues (like it did in 2007). These teams includes Oregon, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Penn State, and West Virginia. These teams have only one loss, and respectable schedules, with the opportunity to create noise by winning a big game in the next few weeks (i.e., Okla State beats Texas, Oregon beats USC, WV beats Cincy, etc.). I'm not going to waste your time looking at these "second tier" NC contenders, because that would require chaos. And despite the "gritty" games we are witnessing week by week, the fact of the matter is, the favorites are generally winning, and the leading, dominant teams are taking care of business, even if they are doing it in ugly fashion. If chaos unfolds in the next week or two, we can focus more on the second tier, but in the meantime, we'll focus on the 9 main contenders.

Sizing up the Nine Contenders

I continue to believe the SEC conference winner is almost guaranteed a NC berth. Florida and Bama's lousy efforts against MSU and Tennessee, respectively, may throw a slight curve ball at that argument, but the SEC ranks as the strongest conference in CFB (bar none), and the media generally continues to believe that the SEC winner deserves one of the two NC spots, assuming that winner has only one loss. Florida, Alabama and LSU all control their destiny. Florida has seen its schedule hold firm, while Alabama and LSU have seen their very strong schedules weaken over the last couple of weeks. I don't think it matters too much -- they are still top 20/30 quality schedules. LSU may seem like a stretch, but think about how much love they will be getting if they beat Bama in conference play and Florida in the title game. They will be a lock (not necessarily as the top seed... Texas could earn the #1 ranking in that scenario... but I think they hold off an undefeated Iowa).

I also continue to believe Texas controls its destiny. Tonight's solid effort from Missouri will certainly help. Texas is the default #2/#3 vote on most human ballots, and it will take several squeakers by Texas, combined by impressive wins from Iowa, to change that dynamic. The Texas schedule took it on the chin this week (more on that at the end of this summary), but it is still respectable, meaning Texas will not have a computer detriment that will overcome what should be fairly solid scores on the coaches and Harris polls.

Iowa, assuming they win out (which apparently they might, as shocking as that might seem), is in the catbird's seat if Texas loses. Their schedule is off-the-charts, especially as Arizona and Iowa State continue to exceed expectations. I think it would be borderline criminal if a one-loss USC jumped an undefeated Iowa, especially considering the advantage Iowa will enjoy in the computers. But I know USC is a popular team.

USC needs both Texas and Iowa to lose to get to the NC. There might be some controversy about leaping the weak undefeateds, but USC's schedule is strong, their quality wins would be impressive (many of these coming on the road, including Cal, Oregon, Ohio State and ND), and at the end of the day, I think they would deserve it more than the weak undefeateds.

I'm sorry, I know I give the weak undefeateds little respect, but the math doesn't lie. TCU, Cincy and Boise continue to have terribly weak schedules (as you can see below). Boise has the win over Oregon, but if USC also beats Oregon, that victory loses clout. Cincy still has games against Pitt and WV, so maybe they don't run the table. TCU is being hurt by the fact the MWC is no where near as strong as it was in 2008. If Texas, Iowa and USC all lose, they may become relevant, but I would think the second tier I mentioned earlier (Okla State, GT, etc.) could still jump them. At this point, I think it is a fairly low probability any of these teams will be playing in the NC. The more interesting question will be whether we see two "non-BCS" schools get BCS bids in the same year (TCU and Boise). As other BCS schools continue to pile up losses, that may be an increasing possibility.

Strength of Schedule of the "Elite 9"
Team       CurSOS    ProjSOS   Rank
Florida    0.559     0.533      27
Alabama    0.557     0.564      10
Texas      0.537     0.528      31
Boise      0.464     0.420      96
Cincy      0.406     0.455      77
Iowa       0.521     0.582       6
USC        0.549     0.566       9
TCU        0.526     0.466      68
LSU        0.545     0.539      22

Official Downgrade of a One-Loss Texas' Chances
Texas' SOS took it on the chin this week. As we look ahead, I was expecting a high-quality (Nebraska) North opponent in the conference title game. NU's stunning loss to ISU means that is now fairly remote. I'm literally projecting KSU as the opponent in Arlington, which is depressing on some level. Texas now projects at the 31st most difficult schedule in the country, and they continue to rely on teams such as Louisiana Monroe, Colorado, and UTEP to win games week by week. If you really want to think about a one-loss Texas team's chances, you must think about the reality of losing a game against a South foe (Oklahoma State) that keeps them out of the conference title game altogether, or about how late in the season (against KU in Austin? against A&M in CS?) such a loss would be occurring. Basically, I don't really see a scenario where Texas loses from this point forward, and still gets to the NC game. The loss would be too late, the North opponent would be too weak, or the schedule would not help enough in the computers. If you tell me Texas loses in Stillwater, but they still win the South, and then Iowa, USC, Boise, TCU, and a couple of others all lose, then yes, there's a shot. But basically, it looks like Texas needs to win out to go to have any reasonable probability of playing for it all in Pasadena.

This post was edited on 10/24 11:31 PM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 10/25 10:14 AM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 10/25 10:15 AM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 10/25 10:15 AM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 10/25 11:34 AM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 10/25 3:59 PM by SynTex1
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This post was edited on 10/25 8:09 PM by SynTex1

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 7

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

PROJECTED BCS RANKINGS
It's fairly likely the initial BCS rankings will be:

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas

A large gap will exist between Texas and the #4 team, which will be either Boise State or USC. I didn't spend too much time agonizing over which one will be #4 or #5, as USC will steadily gain strength as the year progresses, and will comfortably outrank BSU if they continue to win out.

UNDEFEATEDS
As I've done every week, let's begin with a tally of the undefeateds. Two more went down this weekend, meaning there are only seven undefeated teams remaining. Two come from the SEC (Alabama and Florida), one from the Big 10 (Iowa), one from the Big XII (Texas), and three from weaker conferences (TCU, Cincy and Boise State).

PUTTING CONTENDERS INTO TRANCHES
I think the easiest way to think about the national title contenders is to put them into tranches: SEC contenders, undefeated contenders, strong one-loss contenders, weak one-loss contenders, and undefeated pretenders.

SEC Contenders
As I discussed last week (and as most CFB fans readily acknowledge), the SEC winner is highly assured to have a seed in the NC game. Alabama and LSU are in particularly strong shape, even with one loss. Florida may have to sweat a little bit of computer weakness in the event they drop a regular season game, but I still believe they would garner at least a #2 BCS ranking when all is said and done.

Team            Conf  AllWins  FBSWins  AllLoss  SOS  ProjSOS  Rank 
 Alabama         SEC      7        7        -    0.572  0.584     4 
 LSU             SEC      5        5        1    0.559  0.564    11 
 Florida         SEC      6        5        -    0.601  0.534    29 

Undefeated Contenders
For the second straight week, the strong undefeated contenders (outside the SEC) are Texas and Iowa. If Texas wins out, they will go to the national title (do not let anyone's foolish reporting convince you otherwise). I will discuss Texas' chances as a one-loss contender later. Iowa's big win in Madison has them in good shape, but they still face a couple of key Big 10 tests. Ohio State going down against Purdue may rob the Hawkeyes of a potential "quality win." Iowa does not get much love by the pundits, and they still have some big games to win, but if they win out, they will very much be a factor in the NC discussion. Iowa boasts a SOS ranking #7 nationally, but note this has been drifting lower over the last few weeks.

 Team            Conf  AllWins  FBSWins  AllLoss  SOS  ProjSOS  Rank 
 Iowa            Big10    7        6        -    0.622  0.571     7 
 Texas           BigXII   6        6        -    0.547  0.541    21 

Strong One-Loss Contenders
Virginia Tech and Ohio State fell out of this group with their losses. Basically, USC is in prime shape here. If USC knocks off Oregon, they will have a multitude of quality wins, and will be in excellent shape should Texas and Iowa stumble. Oregon's schedule ranks very impressively, and if they knock-off USC, they could have a lot of momentum. I would worry about the difficulty of jumping Boise State (which I don't think is a valid contender)... that early season loss by such a significant margin may keep Oregon challenged. Miami is a weaker contender here, as their SOS continues to weaken, but Miami's NC chances went up significantly today with VT's loss to GT. If VT loses another game, Miami can win the ACC outright and be in decent position.

 Team            Conf  AllWins  FBSWins  AllLoss  SOS  ProjSOS  Rank 
 Oregon          Pac10    5        5        1    0.584  0.582     5 
 Southern Cal    Pac10    5        5        1    0.534  0.563    12 
 Miami FL        ACC      5        4        1    0.584  0.538    27 

Weak One-Loss Contenders
GT, Oklahoma State and Penn State could make some noise if they win out, but their schedules are probably not strong enough to make them premiere contenders. Keep an eye on them if chaos prevails among the other contenders.

 Team            Conf  AllWins  FBSWins  AllLoss  SOS  ProjSOS  Rank 
 Georgia Tech    ACC      6        5        1    0.578  0.511    41 
 Oklahoma St     BigXII   5        4        1    0.461  0.509    42 
 Penn State      Big10    6        5        1    0.483  0.509    43 

Undefeated Pretenders
TCU, Cincy and Boise State's schedules are simply too weak to merit serious NC consideration, and they do not appear to have enough voter support to help offset what will become a substantial computer detriment.

 Team            Conf  AllWins  FBSWins  AllLoss  SOS  ProjSOS  Rank 
 TCU             MWC      6        5        -    0.521  0.467    64 
 Cincinnati      BigE     6        5        -    0.415  0.444    77 
 Boise St        WAC      6        5        -    0.483  0.418    96 

What if Texas loses a game
If Texas loses a game (but is still able to win the Big XII), I think they might have an outside shot to still get back in the NC picture. With the SEC locking up one spot in the NC game, Texas would probably need the following teams to lose:

Iowa
USC
Oregon (presumably losing to USC>

I know a lot of you might roll your eyes. "Texas hasn't proven anything." "Texas hasn't played a great schedule." That might be true, but it's turning into a chaotic year in college football. There's not a lot of quality teams out there right now. If you eliminate all teams with two losses, the fact that we can really only talk about a dozen legitimate contenders in mid-October is saying something. Honestly, Texas could still be in contention as long as the loss doesn't occur too late (hopefully not in November) and doesn't keep them from going to Dallas to win the Big XII. Oklahoma State could be a backbreaker, as that is really the best quality opponent remaining on Texas' schedule, and a loss in Stillwater could keep Texas from winning the South.

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 6

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

With almost half the college football season behind us, the picture is becoming clearer for the universe of contenders for a berth in the national championship.

The remaining undefeateds
There are only nine undefeated teams remaining in the FBS: two of them from the SEC (Florida and Alabama), two of them from the Big XII (Texas and Kansas), two of them from the Big East (USF and Cincy), one from the Big 10 (Iowa), and two of them from "non-BCS" schools (Boise and TCU).

The SEC is in prime position
With LSU failing to knock-off the top ranked Gators, it is looking increasingly probable that Florida will take an undefeated record into the SEC championship game. Alabama appears equally strong. If LSU can claw its way back into relevance by stunning Alabama and then knocking off Florida in a potential re-match, they would also be in prime shape. With the SEC posting off-the-charts dominance in its out-of-conference performance (albeit against some weaker competition), and with the conference's national perception of strength surging through the roof, it is clear that the SEC winner is almost guaranteed a bid in the NC game. A one-loss Florida gets a tad dicey with the weaker schedule, but the voter love probably keeps them solidly in the top 2. The only way I envision the SEC doesn't get a NC game spot? If chaos reigns... resulting in the SEC winner having two losses.

Team           Conf    AllWins FBSWins AllLoss  SOS     ProjSOS
Alabama        SEC        6       6       0     0.583     0.597
LSU            SEC        5       5       1     0.557     0.574
Florida        SEC        5       4       0     0.609     0.530

Strongly positioned undefeated teams
Texas effectively controls its destiny by having entrenched 2nd/3rd place votes in a population of contenders that have at least one loss. If Texas wins out, they are going to Pasadena. It might seem hard to believe, but with an undefeated record, a very solid resume, and one of the strongest schedules in the country, Iowa is also in a decent position and could be a key beneficiary of a Texas loss (if you believe Iowa is capable of knocking off the Buckeyes and winning out).

We have seen solid strengthening in Texas' projected SOS over the last two weeks, and the computers will increasingly move in Texas' favor, particularly over the next three weeks. In addition, one of the biggest allies Texas might have is the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Nebraska is putting together a solid season and can be considered in the driver's seat for the North by beating Mizzou. If Nebraska comes into Dallas with a potential 11-1 or 10-2 type record, that could be a real platform game for Texas (if they need it).

I think this is less true for Iowa, but I think Texas can still have an outside shot of the NC game if they lose a game. However, I think Missouri is the only game they might be able to lose. Failing to beat OU would pretty much kill Texas' chances. Losing in Stillwater would also pretty devastating, given the timing later in the season, along with the fact it would be a head-to-head loss against a South foe.

Team           Conf    AllWins FBSWins AllLoss  SOS     ProjSOS
Iowa           Big10      6       5       0     0.608     0.588
Texas          BigXII     5       5       0     0.504     0.554   

One loss teams in solid position
If Texas and Iowa suffer losses, I'd rank the teams with one loss that benefit the most in the following order:

Southern Cal has a big win over Ohio State, a very strong schedule, an earlier season loss to Washington, and the potential for a lot of quality wins. They are in great shape if a couple of teams in front of them can lose.

Virginia Tech also has a good resume, very solid schedule, an early loss (first game of the year) against a very good team... here's the unique thing that holds VT back... if Bama wins the SEC, will people really want to see a Bama/VT rematch? Probably not.

Ohio State suffered a last minute loss to a very good team, and has a reasonably difficult schedule. If USC can fall back with two or more losses, it removes a ceiling over tOSU and they can be in contention again.

Oregon has really started to play impressive football, and a win over USC would turn a lot of heads. They have to fight the problem of having lost to BSU, however. Although they've got a lot going in their favor, they'd probably be helped if BSU could lose a game or two.

Miami has a problem in that their schedule has peaked, and will weaken considerably over the next few weeks. They also get hurt if their marquee wins over OU, FSU, and GT get impaired if those teams continue to struggle. Additionally, they are behind the 8-ball in winning the ACC, given the loss to VT.

A one loss Texas probably gets slotted behind Ohio State and in front of Oregon in this pecking order, but it hinges greatly on when and to whom they lose.

Team           Conf    AllWins FBSWins AllLoss  SOS     ProjSOS
Southern Cal   Pac10      4       4       1     0.539     0.585
Oregon         Pac10      5       5       1     0.567     0.576
Virginia Tech  ACC        5       5       1     0.726     0.573
Ohio State     Big10      5       5       1     0.573     0.569
Miami FL       ACC        4       3       1     0.655     0.547

Teams with an uphill battle
Undefeateds South Florida, TCU, Cincy and Boise are all really hurt by absolutely atrocious schedules, and they face an uphill battle in getting voters to believe they deserve a spot in the NC title game. Unless we start seeing losses pile up with all the other contenders, I continue to believe they are largely irrelevant. BCS conference members like Nebraska, KU, OkSt, PSU, and South Carolina all have respectable schedules and one lone loss. If they run the table and win their conferences, they can become a factor, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there. Notre Dame could turn heads by beating USC, and their schedule is decent (not great, but decent). They could certainly propel themselves higher in the pecking order with a win.

Team           Conf    AllWins FBSWins AllLoss  SOS     ProjSOS
Nebraska       BigXII     4       4       1     0.582     0.544
Notre Dame     Ind        4       4       1     0.525     0.541
South Carolina SEC        5       4       1     0.441     0.532
Penn State     Big10      5       4       1     0.434     0.515
Kansas         BigXII     5       4       0     0.407     0.499
Oklahoma St    BigXII     4       3       1     0.424     0.491
South Florida  BigE       5       3       0     0.258     0.473
TCU            MWC        5       4       0     0.471     0.446
Cincinnati     BigE       5       4       0     0.363     0.430
Boise St       WAC        5       4       0     0.449     0.410

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 5

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

After hearing a member of the media recently say, "Florida can probably lose to LSU but still compete for a national championship"... (a pathetic attempt to sandbag for the almighty Tebow)... it got me thinking... is that really true?

Probably. But only because the voter love (and the valid perception that the SEC is a tough conference) really works in Florida's favor. However, it could get dicey for the Gators down the stretch if they lost a game, as the computers are really not going to be their ally. In addition to playing an out-of-conference schedule that is looking more appalling by the week (Florida State, Charleston Southern, Troy and FIU), the Gators played an easier version of the SEC West in 2009, missing out on ranked Auburn, Ole Miss and Alabama. Of course, Florida would potentially play Bama in the SEC championship, but even when factoring that in, their resume (purely by the numbers) would pale in comparison when sized up against other one-loss contenders. But I'm not naive to the love. If Florida wins the SEC, even with a blemish in Baton Rouge, they would probably go to Pasadena.

Here's my way of grouping the contenders at this point:

Undefeated teams that can afford to lose a game:
LSU and Alabama are in this group. They have brutal schedules, and they could drop a regular season game, but win the SEC championship game (presumably against Florida) and easily punch their ticket to the NC. They are in very good shape. Reluctantly, the media love also means Florida falls into this camp.

Undefeated teams that probably can't lose a game, but don't count them out:
This is where I put Texas, along with Iowa and Auburn. In the case of Texas, their human "perception" could help them alleviate what is a less impressive SOS (but not as bad as many on this board think), but the lack of potential high profile wins could hurt the Horns. I wouldn't rule the Horns out if they lose to a Missouri or Oklahoma State type game. You'd need a half dozen or so games to break Texas' way, but crazier things have happened. Iowa and Auburn have fairly difficult schedules, but they don't have the "cache" with the humans... but they could still contend with a one-loss record.

Undefeated teams that can probably get to Pasadena if they stay undefeated, but can't lose a game:
Wisconsin, Missouri, Kansas. Lower on the totem poll, but come from decent conferences. Schedules and cache keep them out with a loss, though.

Undefeated teams that really have little chance:
USF, TCU, Cincy and Boise State. Uphill battles on the perception of the toughness of their schedules, and the math pretty much supports it.

One-loss teams that are in prime position to compete:
USC, Ohio State, Oregon, Virginia Tech, and Miami They have some big games yet to play (less true with tOSU, but the PSU game will still be big), and their schedules rank fairly well. Although Miami has played a strong schedule to date, there will be a strong drop-off in their numbers from here on out. However, if OU gets its act together and still wins 9 or 10 games, the Miami victory over OU could really help their cause. Miami is probably marginal in this category.

This is always a fun time of year. What seems obvious in early October can be turned on its head. Except in 2005. Yeah... that was pretty nice the way that worked out. Let's go with 2005 if we can.

Team            Wins   FBSWins  Loss     SOS     ProjSOS
LSU               5       5       0     0.553     0.619
Iowa              5       4       0     0.646     0.613
Alabama           5       5       0     0.569     0.606
Southern Ca       4       4       1     0.547     0.603
Ohio State        4       4       1     0.587     0.595
Oregon            4       4       1     0.565     0.587
Auburn            5       5       0     0.470     0.568
Virginia Te       4       4       1     0.703     0.563
Texas             4       4       0     0.525     0.542
Wisconsin         5       4       0     0.482     0.539
Florida           4       3       0     0.488     0.530
Penn State        4       4       1     0.505     0.528
Miami FL          3       3       1     0.667     0.522
Missouri          4       3       0     0.320     0.511
Kansas            4       3       0     0.416     0.500
South Flori       5       3       0     0.277     0.478
TCU               4       3       0     0.446     0.438
Cincinnati        5       4       0     0.349     0.424
Boise St          5       4       0     0.408     0.386