BCS Projection/Analysis Week 13

Note: this was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

Projection for tomorrow

I don't expect any change in the rankings tomorrow.
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. TCU
5. Cincy
6. Boise

Looking Ahead to the Final Week

Absent a stunning upset in Arlington, it will be Texas versus the Florida/Alabama winner for the national championship game in Pasadena. Thankfully, we don't need to focus on the scenario of a one-loss SEC conference champ going to the NC anymore.

So is there any way at all Texas could get hosed next week? One should never assign a zero percent possibility when human judgment may be a factor, but I see no scenario that will keep an undefeated Texas team from the national championship game with any meaningful plausibility. I understand how many of us are still paranoid, after the three-way tie debacle from 2008. Believe me, I understand. But there is just no way.

What if TCU jumps Texas?
TCU already has a weaker computer score than the Horns, and it's going to get worse. TCU also is done with its season, meaning they can't boost their stock with the voters. For TCU to have any chance whatsoever, they must have Cincinnati lose to Pitt, to ensure that TCU is not seeing its votes diluted by the Bearcats. Then, TCU needs the one-loss SEC team to not fall below Texas in the majority of the computers. This might allow TCU to stay within 0.01 of Texas in the computers. Then, TCU must see about 6 out of 10 human voters, all of whom already have Texas ranked ahead of them, switch their vote from Texas to TCU. The odds for this perfect storm are astronomical.

What if Cincy jumps Texas?
Cincy would have a better shot than TCU of edging Texas in the computers (they still outrank Texas in 3 of them), but I do expect Cincy's advantage to diminish tomorrow. However, there are two really big problems for Cincy in the final week. First, the Pitt game has lost a lot of its luster given the Panthers' loss to West Virginia. More importantly, TCU is taking a lot of their votes, and TCU is done for the year. Cincinnati cannot jump Texas.

What if the SEC loser stays ahead of Texas?
Yes, Florida and Alabama both have amazing schedule strength which will translate in the computers. The SEC has had an incredible year, and it really will benefit both of these teams. One could project that the loser of the SEC title game may stay ahead of Texas in several (if not a majority) of the computers. Even with this potential advantage, it would take abnormal voting behavior for the SEC runner-up to stay ahead of Texas. Let's use Alabama as the loser in this scenario (since they would be the greater threat). Even if Alabama remains ahead of Texas in every single computer poll (unlikely), and Cincinnati serves as a wedge between Bama and Texas in several computers (unlikely), AND Alabama received every #3 vote (putting them ahead of undefeated TCU, Cincy, and Boise on every single ballot), they would still be a full 0.01 behind Texas in the final BCS. You would need to start thinking about voter shenanigans, where voters would be putting a one-loss Bama ahead of Texas. That's not going to happen, especially when the coaches' ballots will be made public. I think my computer assumption above is extreme, so Texas would have a good amount of buffer to withstand voter manipulation, should any occur (which I don't think it will).

If Texas wins in Arlington, they are going to Pasadena.

Included below is the updated strength of schedule projections. Texas had a good weekend, and will likely have a top-20 schedule when all is said and done. Alabama and Florida are off the charts. The other three remain very weak.

TEAM       CUR SOS  Rk  PROJSOS  Rk
Florida     0.528   15   0.555    6
Bama        0.536   12   0.563    2
Texas       0.518   26   0.530   17
TCU         0.477   63   0.477   63
Cincy       0.465   80   0.487   52
Boise       0.453   91   0.440   93

Seeding the BCS Bowls

Now that we are in the homestretch, the easiest way to discuss the way the bowls might play out is to look at the BCS pecking order:

(1) Sugar
Pick: SEC runner-up
Reason: No brainer.

(2) Fiesta
Pick: Iowa
Reason: The Fiesta knows they will probably get stuck with a non-BCS school on their other slot, so I think they will jump on a BCS at large contender. OkSt losing means that Iowa may be the choice (as the Big 10 is really the last man standing for at-large candidates). If it were simply about which Big 10 team deserves it, there is no doubt: it's Iowa. Iowa has played a much tougher schedule, and of course, they beat PSU head-to-head. Some might say that PSU would be better for ratings and attendance. I'm not so sure. PSU has been a major disappointment in 2009, and has not exactly been electrifying in winning against weak competition. Conversely, Iowa has exceeded expectations significantly in 2009. Also, Iowa could bring better potential fan turnout based on their history. They had 20,000 fans come to a regular season game at AzSt in 2004, and they set an Orange Bowl record in 2003 with 47,000 tickets sold. Geographically, the Fiesta isn't that much of a stretch for Iowa either. I think Iowa makes the most sense at this point.

(3) Orange
Pick: TCU
Reason: This is a tough one. Maybe the Orange would think about taking Cincy, but then again, the Orange just had Cincy last year, which is probably just enough reason for the Orange to go with TCU. Geographically, TCU isn't as good of a fit here as they would be in either the Sugar or Fiesta. The Orange is hungry for taking a quality team after having been stuck with some really lousy/uninspiring match-ups the last few years. TCU is clearly a much higher quality team than the other undefeateds outside of the NC game (and it's not even close, in my view).

(4) Fiesta
Pick: Boise State
Reason: A few years ago in the Fiesta, BSU played in one of the most exciting games of all time, stunning OU in overtime. The Fiesta may hope to relive that experience by inviting Boise again. There is a slight shot USC could inch into the top 14 if they win out, and the Fiesta could be tempted to go with a higher ratings/fan base play. But that seems pretty slim to me.

(5) Sugar
Pick: Cincinnati
Cincinnati becomes the "plug" team after the other at larges have been set. They would be thrilled to have the opportunity to make their case against a high quality SEC team.

So this sequence of events would give us:

NC: Texas vs. SEC winner
Sugar: SEC runner-up vs. Cincy
Fiesta: Iowa vs. Boise
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Rose: Ohio State vs. Oregon

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 12

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

final update with real standings

Wow. Bama scored very well in the computers, getting a perfect 1.00 (only Andersen Hester has them lower than #1, and that gets dropped out of the calculation). They could become #1 after beating Auburn, but obviously, it doesn't really matter too much. Cincinatti, despite not playing a game, saw a spike in their computer rating. I really don't know why, but there it is. They have played the 61st most difficult schedule in the country (Texas has played the 26th most difficult), yet Massey, Sagarin Elo Chess and Wolfe have Cincy solidly ahead of Texas. By the way, those three computers are the ones I've had the hardest time forecasting lately. None of this changes my view that Texas is golden if they win out, but I am now beginning to wonder if TCU can hold Cincinatti off. In the event the Horns get stunned, I'm wondering if Cincy will be the primary beneficiary, getting the chance to play for the NC. Hopefully it's a moot point.

1:45p update with coaches and Harris polls

TCU scoring a little bit better than expected in both polls, but the gap between Texas and TCU will remain comfortable. Actually, that looks to be true throughout the top 6, where decent gaps exist between #1/#2, #2/#3, etc. Still think BCS should be unchanged for the top 6. Oklahoma State will be close to cracking the top 10 (maybe #11), and if Pitt falls below them after a potential loss to Cincy, OkSt may be top-10 in the final BCS poll. I really like their chances if they can pull it out in Norman.

Original post from last night

Overview

Fairly brief update this late night, as there's really not much to say. It's still looking like a destiny-match between the SEC winner and Texas. I do not expect the BCS to change meaningfully this week. Therefore, tomorrow's BCS should look like:

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. TCU
5. Cincy
6. Boise

I was slightly disappointed by Louisiana Monroe and UTEP losing to weak opponents (particularly the latter), but it really doesn't matter. Texas will have a top 20-ish schedule when all is said and done, which will ensure there will not be any threat from TCU or Cincy. If Texas wins out, they will be in Pasadena. TCU and/or Cincy will simply not be able to get enough votes, even if Texas struggles somewhat against A&M or Nebraska. If Texas has a "fluke" win where a bad call clearly should have resulted in a Texas loss, then sure, maybe TCU can leap Texas, but otherwise, I just don't see it. I also am not at all worried about the other scenario some posters have thrown out, where the loser of the SEC title game still stays ahead of Texas in the final BCS poll. There is no precedent for that kind of voting behavior, and I would be completely shocked. The SEC loser could have a slight computer edge over Texas, but they will not have any kind of edge over Texas in the human polls, which is 2/3 of the BCS score.

Bottom line, to reiterate -- Texas wins out, they go to Pasadena.

Here's the updated SOS data on the six undefeateds:

TEAM    CUR SOS   RNK    PROJ SOS   RNK
FLA      0.511     28     0.540     14
ALA      0.530     15     0.559      4
TEX      0.515     26     0.525     20
TCU      0.508     36     0.477     60
Cincy    0.478     61     0.487     51
Boise    0.434     95     0.435     92

At-Large and Bowl Seeding

The picture has become more clear-cut for the at-large bids, with only a handful of teams really in play at this stage. As mentioned in previous weeks, the SEC runner-up and TCU are virtual locks, leaving two at-large spots open. Boise State, Oklahoma State, and a Big 10 two loss team (Penn State and Iowa) are the key contenders. I think Iowa should be the favorite to be a potential Big 10 at large. Penn State has better fan support, but they also lost to Iowa head-to-head, and Iowa's played the better schedule.

Right now, I think Oklahoma State is in good shape if they can beat the Sooners in Norman (hungry fan base that's never been to a bowl game; technically rated higher in BCS than Big 10 contenders; respectable schedule). I would actually seed them ahead of BSU and the Big 10 in the at-large pecking order. If OkSt loses, then Boise and Big 10 become the defacto teams. If OkSt wins, I think Boise may still edge out the Big 10, but this really becomes less about BCS "science" and more about back-room bowl committee dealings, which are impossible to handicap. Having two non-BCS teams is still really a burden, and Boise is ending its season fairly unimpressively (mediocre competition). I'll still give the edge to Boise for now, but I have been wavering on this week by week. Interesting if we start to hear any bowl committee stories leak out to the press in the next week or two.

BCS Bowl Projections
NC: SEC winner vs. Texas
Sugar: SEC runner-up vs. Boise State
Fiesta: TCU vs. Oklahoma State
Rose: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Cincy
This post was edited on 11/22 1:52 PM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 11/22 3:46 PM by SynTex1

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 10

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

3p update with coaches and harris

TCU didn't get as much support as I expected in the Harris poll. I'll stick with them being #4 and Cincy #5, but there's a shot Cincy edges out TCU for #4. Still feel comfortable that Texas will fall to #3.

Original message from Saturday night

Overview

Texas fans can now be fully assured that an undefeated Longhorn team will be playing in Pasadena for the national title. Iowa's loss was clearly the big news, but the Hawkeyes were going to be in trouble, anyway, with some devastating developments on their schedule. The NC title picture is now clear as day, with the only real contenders (barring absolute chaos) being the six undefeated teams: Florida, Alabama, Texas, TCU, Cincy and Boise. The losses by Oregon, Penn State and ND really make the BCS bowl seeding outside of the NC game a lot more complicated. Two at large bids are wide open.

Projected BCS Standings

Alabama will jump Texas tomorrow, after Texas had narrowly jumped Alabama last week. Rick Tellshow, Sam Chi, and yours truly all mis-forecast that Bama would stay #2 last week... a sliver of an edge for Texas in Colley was what sealed the deal... by the narrowest of margins. Won't matter and won't be nearly as close this week, as Alabama will see significant computer re-strengthening by virtue of the win against LSU, as well as other games that favored their schedule. TCU was only slightly behind Cincy last week, and I think there's a good shot they jump Cincy this week. The #4 through #6 spots will be fairly tight, so it wouldn't be surprising if Cincy jumps to #4, for instance.

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. TCU
5. Cincy
6. Boise

Iowa Was Already Doomed

Even if Iowa was able to squeak out another win against a mediocre Big 10 team, their ability to position themselves in the NC picture was greatly impaired. The "strong SOS" that Iowa had earlier in the year (a perfect 1.00 computer score a few weeks ago) was a paper tiger. They benefited from lousy teams exceeding expectations (Iowa State, Arizona, etc.). They also had a big boost by not having the two weakest Big 10 teams on their schedule (Illinois and Purdue). Unfortunately, both benefits came crashing to earth, including Illinois and Purdue starting to beat some of Iowa's opponents. Iowa's top 5 SOS is no more (now down to #26). Even if they win out, they are completely irrelevant in the NC discussion.

SEC Picture Coming Into Focus

Alabama and Florida are on track to meet as undefeated divison winners for what would be a guaranteed NC game seed. Alabama seems highly unlikely to lose before the conference title game (@ MissSt, Chattanooga, @Auburn). Florida may have a potential trap game or two, but also looks likely to remain undefeated (@ South Carolina, FIU, FSU). We're getting late in the year, so if one of these two lost a game but then won the conference, it could get a little dicier to jump the other undefeated teams, but I think they would have a very good shot (Alabama in particular).

Sizing Up the Six Undefeated Teams

With the Hawkeyes out of the picture, the "pecking order" is pretty cut and dry. We are not going to see teams' computer strength change too much as the year goes on, although the SEC teams will strengthen slightly, Texas and TCU will weaken slightly, and Cincy may gain a little ground.

TEAM      CUR SOS  (RNK)   PROJ SOS  (RNK)
FLORIDA    0.535    (21)    0.538     (16)     
ALABAMA    0.562     (7)    0.557      (6)
TEXAS      0.533    (25)    0.521     (32)
TCU        0.502    (42)    0.477     (59)
CINCY      0.454    (67)    0.487     (54)
BOISE      0.431    (90)    0.432     (95)

So if Texas and the SEC winner are undefeated, there is no doubt what the NC game will be. If Florida or Bama lose a game but then win the SEC, I think they have a shot to jump into the #2 spot to play Texas, but I'll admit this is going to get harder to pull off with time running out in the season. If Texas loses, I can't believe I'm saying this, but either TCU or Cincy will play for the NC game (not sure which one... right now I'm thinking TCU, but Cincy may be able to jump ahead as the year goes on). If Texas, TCU and Cincy all lose a game, then Boise has a good shot to play for it all.

BCS Bowl Projections

A lot of teams keep shooting themselves in the foot for BCS bids. I really didn't think it was probable Notre Dame would climb high enough to be a factor in the BCS at large dialogue, but obviously, their stunning loss to Navy means complete elimination. Boise State did not really help their cause with a sloppy win over Louisiana Tech, and I still believe TCU (if they win out), will earn the sole automatic berth for "non-BCS" conferences. Boise is becoming a funky topic. I still think the bowl committees, especially with the difficult economy, are going to emphasize ratings and attendance over looking out for the little guy. Also, the fact Boise has already played in a BCS game may work against them. But there are not a lot of quality at-large contenders out there, and many/most of them have two losses (while BSU would have zero). So, I reluctantly have to acknowledge Boise may be able to secure a BCS bowl bid (unbelievable).

NC: SEC Winner vs. Texas
Fiesta: USC vs. TCU
Sugar: SEC Loser vs. Cincy
Rose: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Orange: George Tech vs. Boise State

Other at large candidates: Oklahoma State, Iowa, Penn State, Miami
This post was edited on 11/8 2:57 PM by SynTex1

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 9

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

7:00p update, with Harris results

Well, my hedge that I declared as being unlikely proved prescient. The win over OkSt did propel Texas higher than I expected in the computers. But the real reason Texas jumped to #2 was less about Texas coming ahead of expectations in the computers, but more about Alabama falling significantly in the computers. The one that really did them in was the surprising three notch drop from #3 to #6 in Wolfe. That basically allowed them to be effectively tied with Texas in the computers.

This may very well be a one-week phenomenon. Alabama, should they defeat LSU next week, will probably jump Texas to go back into the #2 spot. Also, Texas will see its SOS decrease somewhat as the year goes on, while Alabama will see it strengthen.

Glad I was wrong. Very cool for the Horns to be #2 in the BCS for the first time all year, and obviously, very well deserved.

5:00p update, with Harris results

Harris also generally as projected. Doesn't alter my last projection. Really not seeing how Texas jumps to #2. Sometimes, the computers do funky things after a team has a "big" win against a high quality opponent, so I could be underestimating the boost from OKSt, but I don't think it can be enough. Also, maybe Oregon gets slightly more love in the computers than I'm forecasting, which would still mean there's a slight shot they jump Boise. TCU/Cincy at #5/#6 is also a little tight. Big gaps between Florida/Alabama and Texas/Iowa.

11:50a update, with coaches poll results

The top three were within one point of my projection, reiterating my view that Texas will not jump Alabama for the #2 spot (which is apparently what Brad Edwards is projecting). If two or three computers break Texas' way, then they may edge out the Tide, but I still view this as unlikely (but never rule anything out completely). Other modest surprises were the fact that TCU jumped to the #4 spot in the coaches poll. The key that the Horned Frogs learned is winning convincingly, even if against a lousy opponent like uNLV, in a week where lots of votes are in play (given previous #4 USC's loss) can pay off big-time. Boise State really now has an uphill battle to ever jump TCU, because once voters put a team higher on their ballot, it is tough to get them moved back down. Boise's administrators better start greasing the wheels for a non-automatic bid, because they are going to have to make a case to the BCS bowl committees that they can make an invite economically viable.

The other modest surprise was that Oregon did not get as much of a boost with the impressive win over USC. I'm pretty surprised. If a team clobbers the #4 team in the country (and a team that many thought was the best overall, even though they lost to Washington), you would think they might be able to edge out one of the weaker undefeateds. This lack of a boost effectively kills Oregon's chances to really be relevant in the NC discussion (and they had a slim chance at best).

Updated projection changes slightly, but only on the bottom half:

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Iowa
5. TCU
6. Cincy
7. Boise
8. Oregon
9. LSU


Original message from late Saturday night

Overview

A fairly unremarkable Saturday in the NC race, notwithstanding USC's loss to Oregon (which wasn't all that surprising, really). The seven undefeateds remain undefeated. Two from the SEC (Bama and Florida), one from the Big XII (Texas), one from the Big 10 (Iowa), and three from weaker conferences (TCU, Cincy and Boise).

We are still down to the "elite nine," but the Ducks have swapped with the Trojans as the Pac 10 contender. Yet, Oregon faces some substantial hurdles (to be discussed).

My projection as of now:

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. Iowa
5. TCU
6. Boise State
7. Oregon
8. Cincy
9. LSU


There is a modest probability Texas might jump Alabama into the #2 spot. I have projected some modest voter appreciation in favor of the Horns (and to the detriment of the Tide) based on a hugely impressive road win against the #14 team in the country. That said, I have been repeatedly surprised by how sticky the votes have been for the Tide (and the Gators) so far this year, and so when push comes to shove, Alabama probably still edges out Texas. But the margin is going to narrow considerably. Also... there is a shot Oregon could jump Boise (for now) in the BCS standings tomorrow, but it's difficult to assess what kind of boost Oregon will get in the human polls

Oregon?? What do we think??

Boise State fans should be pleased -- the big Oregon win against the Trojans puts the "human voters" in an awkward bind. Oregon, if not for the opening day loss in Boise, would be an incredibly strong one-loss contender. They would be in prime position to step in if some undefeated teams stumbled. They have the third most difficult schedule in the country (both current and projected). But... oh wait... they lost to Boise State. And Boise State is still undefeated. Any voter who puts Oregon ahead of Boise on their ballot should be shot, or at least mildly tortured. Much like we Longhorn fans (rightfully) trumpeted "45-35" last year on this message board to emphasize the meaning of a head-to-head victory, that sentiment must be enforced on Boise relative to Oregon. What a bizarre ceiling that hangs over the Ducks... they'd be in prime position to contend for the NC, if not for that loss. The computers will try to look through it, and give them a lot of benefit, but the human votes will keep them generally out of the NC picture. But it's a really strange dynamic, and the fact Oregon may edge out Boise this week will be a testament to how weird of a situation this will be.

Iowa's Fall From Grace

Iowa played yet another sloppy game, and had yet another "gutsy" come from behind win. Fine, let that be the story on which the media fixates. For those that want to look at the numbers, Iowa had a particularly rough weekend. Their opponents played to date had a very mediocre week, going 2-4 (Iowa State, Arkansas State, Michigan, and Michigan State lost, while PSU and Wisconsin won). Their projected schedule (counting all future opponents as well as opponents played to date) fell slightly, from 4th in the country to a still respectable 8th. I do not expect them to gain as many points as they probably should have from the humans this week, considering a lot of USC votes were in play. Iowa missed a real opportunity, and that effort against Indiana is only going to feed the skeptics. Yes, the Ohio State game could be a platform, but Iowa needs to be converting voters now, not later. I view the gap between Iowa and Texas to be too massive. Iowa should see its perfect 1.00 computer score fall this week. I firmly believe if Texas wins out, Iowa will be playing in Pasadena for the Rose Bowl, and not the national championship.

SEC still on track

The SEC schedules got stronger this week. Florida and Alabama remain in prime position (and LSU technically controls its destiny as well). I think even with a loss, the SEC conference winner will be playing for the national title.

What if Texas and Iowa lose

Texas generally held steady for its projected SOS this week, but it's still not good enough to withstand a loss, in my opinion (right now, 30th most difficult schedule in the country). I continue to believe if Texas loses a game, the loss will be too late in the year to overcome, and the North opponent will be too weak to help propel Texas. I also think Iowa has too many perception issues, despite their incredibly strong schedule, to be relevant in the NC discussion should they lose a game. That begs the question... who would play the SEC title winner if both Texas and Iowa stumble? I think TCU and Boise (ugh) would be in good shape, with Cincy not far behind. Do not underestimate how much benefit Boise got by virtue of the Ducks beating the Trojans. Boise's schedule is appalling (94th in the country), but they could become a firm #2/#3 in the event Texas and Iowa lose. TCU has a stronger schedule (68th in the country) and a big match-up against Utah coming up. It's hard to believe, but the BCS-busters may have their say if Texas and Iowa don't take care of business.

Seeding the Bowls

After the 6 BCS conference winners are slotted, that leaves four spots in play. TCU is in prime position to hold off Boise for the automatic "non-BCS" bid, and you have to believe the loser of the Alabama/Florida game also gets a bid. Right now, I think USC and Penn State are probably the other two at-large teams (meaning Boise may get "screwed"). Right now, I would project the bowls as:

NC: Florida vs. Texas
Sugar: Alabama vs. USC
Fiesta: Penn State vs. TCU
Rose: Iowa vs. Oregon
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. Cincy

Below is the way the nine contenders rank as far as "current SOS" (W/L records and opp's opponents W/L records played to date) and "projected SOS" (counting all teams on the schedule). Note I now project Nebraska as the North champion, rather than KSU.

TEAM CUR SOS Rk ProjSOS Rk
Florida 0.577 8 0.541 16
Alabama 0.539 23 0.564 7
Texas 0.545 22 0.523 30
Iowa 0.557 15 0.560 8
TCU 0.494 43 0.466 68
Boise St 0.431 86 0.431 94
Oregon 0.594 3 0.576 3
Cincinnati 0.451 72 0.476 59
LSU 0.518 29 0.532 24


If you remain concerned Iowa poses a threat to Texas, and you want Texas to hold off the Hawkeyes in a worst case scenario.... root for the Big XII South against the North (obvious), but root for Nebraska to win the North. Root for Kansas State not to win the North. KSU has a terrible, terrible SOS, with two of their victories coming against sub-FBS teams, while Nebraska has a better resume. I really am not worried about Iowa, but we have lots of wedges between Texas and Iowa in the polls (Boise, TCU, Cincy, etc.) But if those teams all lose, and Iowa tries to pose any kind of threat, however remote, root for KSU not to go to Arlington.
This post was edited on 11/1 12:17 AM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 11/1 11:58 AM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 11/1 5:18 PM by SynTex1
This post was edited on 11/1 7:07 PM by SynTex1