General BCS update

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

I've spent a few hours studying the latest computer polls, and I'm trying to look ahead to the final BCS before the Big XII title game would be potentially "seeded."

The ultimate question is: what would be the relative advantage (if any) Texas would have in the computers over OU, given that OU will make up some considerable ground?

Right now, I project Texas will hold a 0.03 computer advantage (current advantage is 0.11, to give context). If anyone has specific questions on individual polls, definitely ask, and I can walk you through my logic, but here's the high-level takeaways:

I think Texas is going to get slaughtered in Billingsley, and that will definitely be the low thrown out for Texas, and the high thrown out for OU. Andersen Hester is really tough to call, but I think Texas may keep the edge, with Florida serving as a wedge.

The other four polls seem to favor Texas, especially the ones that model out all of the teams (not just Division 1A). It's stunning to see how poorly Washington and Chattanooga rank in those more expanded rankings, and I think that will be an albatross for OU even as their schedule strengthens quite a bit.

Texas still looks to have the strongest SOS in the country when all is said and done, and while OU will close the gap, I do think about a 0.03 computer poll advantage to Texas will hold out. Clearly, these rankings are sensitive, and there will be some key games that may help tweak it, but 0.03 seems like the right number.... for now.

So what does that mean?

I think a 0.03 computer lead is really tough for OU to overcome. Essentially, using the current human vote lead for Texas as the reference point, you would need to see 30 coaches and 54 Harris voters reverse their vote and put OU ahead of Texas. Not one or the other, but both.

To give you an idea, that is half of the total 61 coaches and the 113 Harris voters that participate in the vote. Another way to think about it, since many on this board look at the "points," this would mean OU would need both a 60 point and 108 point gain in coaches poll and Harris poll, respectively.

Texas this last week picked up 31 points in the coaches poll and 57 points in the Harris poll, so OU would basically have to reverse that move, and then reverse it again.

I think it's safe to say that the odds favor Texas, "all else equal."

What could destroy this projection?

If OU slips one notch higher in a computer, it could cut the 0.03 computer lead to 0.02, and make the human vote tighter.

The more problematic outcome could be if OU absolutely throttles Tech and OSU, and there is a groundswell of support where voters don't just reverse Texas and OU, but voters also put OU ahead of Florida. Or there is a more unanimous consensus that OU really is "better."

This could be the most fascinating BCS rankings since 2004, when Cal and Texas were duking out for the at large. Bear in mind, while the human vote actually favored Cal that year, it was the computers that spoke loud and clear and overruled the humans. We may see a similar phenomenon work in Texas' favor this year.

Then again, after spending all this time looking at it and talking about it, Murphy's law says Tech is going to beat OU and make the whole dialogue irrelevant.