BCS Projection/Analysis Week 11

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

PROJECTION SUMMARY

With all of the data now available, I'm going to move in a slight more pro-Texas direction with my computer projections. While I think OU will move up in Colley Matrix, I don't think they will move to #2 as I previously expected. I think Florida will remain ahead of OU, and keep OU down to #3. I am also more comfortable with Texas holding on to its advantage in the Wolfe computer (now that the data has been disclosed). Sagarin remains a wildcard, and frankly, if that one turns on us, a lot comes unhinged. I am still sticking with Elo-chess keeping Texas ahead of OU, and fortunately, we'll know that result fairly early on Sunday morning. If that one turns on us, we have problems.

My base case is now for Texas to hold a 0.01 computer advantage, versus my previous forecast for a dead even computer score. This sounds like a trivial number, but that basically means Texas will only have to convert 10 coaches and 18 Harris poll voters to switch Texas and OU in order to stay ahead of OU in next week's BCS standings.

FLORIDA LOSS TO FSU?

I've also had more time to study the potential impact of a Florida loss on the BCS rankings. Given that OU likely outranks Florida and Texas on several ballots (especially in the coaches poll), all else equal, a Florida loss should result in more relative benefit to Texas than Oklahoma.

One may ask why? If a voter had the following ballot: 1) Bama 2) OU 3) Fla 4) Tex, Texas trails OU by two points. If Florida loses, the same ballot (assuming no funny business) should change to: 1) Bama 2) OU 3) Tex, whereby Texas only trails by one point. Imagine this phenomenon occuring on several different ballots, and it can start to add up.

There's a lot of guesswork in this exercise, but I estimate that a Florida loss could shave OU's relative point advantage in the coaches poll from the current 42 to about 26, and for the Harris poll, from the current 21 to about 15.

What would this mean? If you believe my base case for the computers (and I don't blame you if you don't given all of the uncertainty), then Texas would only need to convert 5 coaches and 9 Harris voters to switch. And if you believe my bull case (where OU doesn't jump Bama in the Billingsley computer) you would only need one coach and 2 Harris voters to switch Texas ahead of OU.

I don't want to get people too excited. The chances of FSU beating Florida seem unfavorable. And you shouldn't view an FSU win as a solution by itself. You should view it as a steroid for the system - it can help Texas a lot, but by itself, it can't keep Texas #2. Texas, in some shape or form, is going to need help from the humans.

SUMMARY THOUGHTS

I am very encouraged by the strong support UT is getting in the media. I was disappointed that ESPN's pro-Texas sentiment late Saturday night did not help Texas in the polls that came out Sunday morning, but perhaps there was not enough time for the arguments to be made in the voters' minds. They will have all week to be reminded that Texas beat OU head to head on a neutral field by 10 points, and then more importantly, they will get to see each team audition for votes.

I think this thing is going to be close. I regret to say it leans in OU's favor, but there are still plenty of variables remaining. If you tell me Texas beats A&M by 3 or more TDs, and OU only beats OSU by 6 points, I think it will be incredibly, incredibly interesting.

Do not forget key games this week. We need to at least tread water on strength-of-schedule relative to OU.

Pro Texas/Pro OU (likelihood)
Colorado/Nebraska (unlikely)
Missouri/Kansas (likely)
Syracuse/Cincy (unlikely)
FAU/FIU (likely)
UTEP/ECU (unlikely)
Rice/Houston (good shot)
Ark/LSU (push)

------DETAIL OF MY COMPUTER FORECAST SCENARIOS------

Base case (55%): 0.01 computer lead for Texas
Human shift needed: 10 coaches and 18 Harris voters switch Tx/OU

TEAM AH RB CM KM JS PW Score 
TEX  23 22 25 24 25 24 0.96 
OU   22 25 23 25 24 23 0.95 

Bull case (30%): 0.02 computer lead for Texas
Key change: RB breaks our way, and OU doesn't jump Bama (they get 24 rather than 25)
Human shift needed: 5 coaches and 12 Harris voters switch TX/OU

Bear case (15%): 0.02 computer DEFICIT for Texas
Key changes: OU jumps Florida in CM (OU gets 24, not 23), and JS reverses Texas and OU (OU gets 25, Texas gets 24)
Human shift needed: 21 coaches and 40 Harris voters switch TX/OU

Original from Saturday night

1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. Texas
4. Oklahoma

The margin betweeen #2 Florida and #3 Texas may be razor thin, and Texas may edge out Florida to remain #2.

I put the most pro-OU human vote I could into my analysis, and couldn't quite get OU to jump Texas. But it could also be damn close.

I project a 0.96 computer score for Texas, and a 0.90 computer score for OU. There's a chance OU could make up more ground than that. Today was a disaster for Texas in the computer polls. Texas' unique opponents compared to OU went a lousy 1-3 (Rice won, FAU/UTEP/Ark lost), while OU's opponents did a much better 3-2 (TCU/Cincy/KSU won, Wash/Chat lost).

Even worse, this 0.06 advantage for Texas is likely to be compromised further next week. Bear in mind, my projection for the ultimate BCS standings just before the Big XII championship is seeded was for Texas to hold a 0.03 edge in the computers. Frankly, I don't know where that stands, and after such a difficult day, it's probably best to wait and see how the precise computer scores and human votes look tomorrow.

Today couldn't have gone much worse. Fortunately, there is one week left. Let's just hope we keep some goodwill with the voters tonight. But that's quite a thumping they watched tonight.

I am curious what you all think. The human vote is such a big swing factor. Does OU killing Tech so badly, in some ways work against them, and diminish Tech as a third-tier opponent, and get people fixated back on the head-to-head matchup? Or do people really think this OU team is "different" than the one that played Texas on a neutral field in October?

I would have told you Texas had the edge coming into today, but that edge seems to have been lost. Don't get me wrong, it's not impossible. But today could not have gone much worse.