This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.
Conclusion First
Texas' chances to win the Big XII took it on the chin this week. OU gained a staggering 59 points on Texas in the coaches poll, and an also stunning 122 points in the Harris poll. Texas' current 0.06 advantage in the computers is the only reason they remain ahead of OU in the BCS. Unfortunately, I think that most (if not all) of this computer advantage will be going away when next weekend's action is completed. Texas therefore needs to pick up meaningful votes in the human polls if they want to win the three way tie. I'm encouraged that several in the media are on Texas' "side", but I don't know if that could possibly translate into anything in the polls to move the meter. If OU and Texas both take care of business, I hate to say it, but OU will probably be going to KC. I believe about 1/4 of the voters need to switch Texas and OU for Texas to get the edge, and that's not likely unless OU really struggles against OSU, and there is a groundswell of support for Texas. I'm rooting for OSU, and I think most people on this board have already figured out that is the right thing to root for at this stage.
All is not lost, there are many other possibilities:
1) What if Baylor beats Tech? Texas controls its destiny (without question).
2) What if FSU beats Florida? Many votes are suddenly thrown into the mix, and Texas is a much stronger beneficiary. Let's just say, it would be a lot more interesting.
3) What if OSU beats OU (after all, it is in Stillwater)? Texas is a heavy favorite to go to the NC championship (regardless of what Tech does)
4) Even if OU beats OSU, what if they lose to Missouri? Texas is almost guaranteed to go to the national championship.
5) What if UF loses to FSU, but beats Bama? Texas is a strong contender to play OU in the NC.
6) What if Bama loses to Auburn, but beats Florida? Texas is a solid contender to play OU in the NC.
Still lots of interesting possibilities. And the 3-way tie, while challenging, is not impossible. Texas needs to take care of business against A&M. We'll see where it goes from there.
Detail on BCS Forecast
This is an early update, as we don't have concrete numbers from A&H, KM or PW computer polls yet. That said, I regret to say that if one wants to be realistic/conservative about this, we should probably kiss the computer advantage good-bye (my base case below).
Base case: Texas and OU have identical computer average. This means Texas needs to convert 13 coaches and 26 Harris voters (about 25% of all voters) to switch OU and Texas on their ballots.
Texas' best-case: Texas has 0.02 computer lead over OU (get key wedges in a couple of important polls, and hang on to leads in A&H, JS, CM and PW). We'd only need to convert 5 coaches and 12 Harris voters if this happened.
Texas' worst case: a couple more computers turn toward OU. Texas suddenly has a 0.03 DEFICIT. We'd have to convert 24 coaches and 48 Harris voters (getting close to half of all voters). Basically, Texas would be screwed.
I've included a full appendix discussing the computer polls, and I'd really welcome any discussion on how people think these shake out. I'll update the discussion and projections if we see anything jump out on the computers that have yet to publish.
WHY IS THIS HAPPENING?
On the computer side, OU gaining on Texas was inevitable. In fact, I now believe OU's schedule is just as strong as Texas. Unfortunately, things took a turn for the worst this weekend when Texas' opponents went a lousy 1-3, while OU's Div I-A opponents went 3-1 (counting KSU). I am also being conservative with expecations because I think there is an uphill battle on this weekend's "battleground" games. I detail these below:
Project Tex opp 3-3
FAU vs. FIU (give it to FAU)
UTEP at ECU (yuck... ECU wins)
Ark vs. LSU (LSU's imploding, but Ark is playing poorly... LSU wins)
Rice vs. UH (UH is dangerous, but hope Rice can win)
CU at Neb (yuck... Neb wins)
Mizz vs. KU (Mizz should win)
Project OU opp 2-0
Cin vs. Syra (be realistic, Cin wins)
Neb vs. CU (yuck... Neb wins)
-------------COMPUTER APPENDIX, FOR THOSE WHO CARE-------------
Here's how I get to a dead even (0.96 vs. 0.96) computer score for Texas and Oklahoma. (* means data not yet available)
Team *AH RB CM *KM JS *PW
Texas 23 22 25 24 25 24
Okla 22 25 24 25 24 23
Poll level detail for those who care:
Anderson & Hester (VULNERABLE)
This has been a fairly stable poll, but we don't have the latest version yet to scrutinize how much ground OU has made on Texas. Bama and Utah have been entrenched at the top for a while on this one. For now, my temptation is to leave it static. 25--Bama 24--Utah 23--Tex 22--OU
Richard Billingsley
Not getting too scientific here. You can see the type of gains teams register when they beat a certain caliber opponent. OU picked up lots of points when they beat Tech, and they'll pick up a bunch more if they beat OSU. While OU already leads Texas as we speak, my fear is that they will jump Alabama. Even worse, I'm afraid Florida may sneak up from the rear and jump Texas. That's two wedges, and that sucks. It's going to be close on Florida, but to be conservative, I project: 25--OU 24--Bama 23--Fla 22-Tex
Colley Matrix
Texas has had a lock on this rating's top spot for several weeks, and although OU is gaining fast, I think Texas has a big enough lead to remain #1. Unfortunately, I think OU will jump Bama, Florida and Utah, taking away what had been a big gap of advantage for us. 25--Tex 24--OU 23--Fla 22--Bama 21--Utah
Kenneth Massey
I don't even see the point of studying this one too much, as OU has already taken the top spot, and Texas is #2. Texas simply can't play catch-up with OU in any poll, so I think it's a given OU stays #1. With TTU directly behind us, I'm not too worried about a possible jump by anyone, but we don't have the data yet, so we'll keep this one statick. 25--OU 24--TX 23--TTU 22--Ala 21--Utah
Jeff Sagarin (VULNERABLE)
OU picked up major ground in this one (remember Elo-Chess is used--similar to the rating system of chess players). It doesn't purportedly take into account recency of the game. Texas has held up better week by week in this poll than I expect, and I am going to take a leap of faith that OU can't replicate the gains they had last week because a) they are playing a lesser opponent, and b) OU is now higher rated, so it becomes less "unusual" for them to beat a top 12 team at this point. Who knows, maybe Texas can get a wedge here (you never know). If this one doesn't work in our favor, a lot comes unhinged. 25--Tex 24--OU 23--Ala 22--TTU
Peter Wolfe (VULNERABLE)
Without the data, can't comment too much on how strong Texas' lead over OU is. But I don't like Tech as a wedge between Texas and OU. At a minimum, OU will probably jump Tech. 25--Ala 24--Tex 23--OU 22-TTU 21-Utah
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