BCS Projection/Analysis Week 4

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

In the next couple of weeks, we will be able to start to get more granular and look at computer polls, as well as the Harris rankings. In the meantime, focusing on strength of schedule ("SOS") makes the most sense.

1. The number of undefeateds fell dramatically this week, with only 17 remaining. Four come from the SEC, and four come from the Big XII, so only two NC contenders could emerge from those 8. Three surprisingly come from the Big 10, but they weren’t the breadwinners we were expecting (Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin), and none of the three seems likely enough to win out, although crazier things have happened. Two come from the Big East (Cincinnati and USF), but the former has one of the worst SOS imaginable, while the latter lost its starting QB for the season. The Pac 10 has only one undefeated remaining, but few would expect UCLA to run the table. The remaining three are the so-called “BCS Busters” of TCU, Boise and Houston, but considering they have the three worst SOS outside of Cincinnati, their odds to compete against undefeateds is slim at best.

Team    AllWins FBSWins AllLoss   SOS    ytpSOS  ProjSOS 
Iowa        4      3       -     0.856   0.577   0.638 
LSU         4      4       -     0.587   0.610   0.609 
Alabama     4      4       -     0.528   0.598   0.589 
Wisconsin   4      3       -     0.313   0.636   0.566 
Auburn      4      4       -     0.382   0.611   0.563 
UCLA        3      3       -     0.396   0.588   0.555 
Michigan    4      4       -     0.601   0.527   0.544 
Texas       4      4       -     0.463   0.571   0.543 
Missouri    4      3       -     0.313   0.590   0.543 
Kansas      4      3       -     0.468   0.561   0.538 
Florida     4      3       -     0.539   0.530   0.528 
S Florida   4      2       -     0.246   0.552   0.464 
Texas A&M   3      3       -     0.248   0.495   0.439 
TCU         3      2       -     0.511   0.420   0.437 
Cincinnati  4      3       -     0.422   0.399   0.407 
Boise St    4      4       -     0.488   0.326   0.383 
Houston     3      2       -     0.438   0.323   0.348

2. Texas is holding steady with a 0.543 projected SOS, not the world-beating SOS it had last year, but not entirely terrible, either. While I guess I could get concerned about Iowa having a really strong showing in SOS at this early stage, or UCLA projecting slightly higher than Texas at this point, let’s face it: until a barrage of one-loss teams say otherwise, this is heading toward an SEC vs. Big XII national title match-up. Also note the Texas and Florida SOS above do not include the boost from a potential conference championship game.



3. To confirm what others have said on this board, Texas is not well-positioned if they lose a game. Take a look at the SOS of key one-loss contenders. It’s not a pretty picture. And that doesn't include the potential one-loss LSU, Bama, and the like. Barring complete chaos (which has happened, with 2007 being most notable), Texas has slim chances to play for the national title with a loss. Not impossible, but slim.

Team    AllWins FBSWins AllLoss   SOS    ytpSOS  ProjSOS 
Georgia     3      3       1     0.654    0.605   0.619 
Ohio State  3      3       1     0.535    0.650   0.616 
Oregon      3      3       1     0.699    0.576   0.610 
USC         3      3       1     0.536    0.633   0.609 
Oklahoma    2      1       1     0.426    0.611   0.570 
Virg Tech   3      3       1     0.823    0.431   0.549

4. In what seemed a little surprising to me, the Big XII jumped the Pac10 and Big10 this week to become the second “strongest” conference in football, based purely on out-of-conference results. The SEC is a juggernaut at this stage, posting a very impressive 18-2 FBS win/loss record. I do suspect the SEC has played a softer schedule, and I will analyze that at some point, but it probably makes sense to wait to see how teams begin to play within their own conference before you can express judgment on how “strong” an out-of-conference schedule is. But let’s just put it this way: as tired as I get of hearing the SEC love nationally, we just have to grin and bear it, and agree. For now, the numbers don’t lie: the SEC is kicking major ass, it is the best conference in football, and whomever wins that conference should earn a spot in the NC game.

         AllWins FBSWins AllLoss  Win % 
SEC        23      18      2      0.900 
BigXII     32      23     10      0.697 
Pac10      19      15      7      0.682 
Big10      24      18      9      0.667 
BigE       21      12      7      0.632 
MWC        16      10     11      0.476 
ACC        19      10     13      0.435 
WAC        13       7     15      0.318 
USA        16       7     17      0.292 
SunB        8       5     19      0.208 
MAC        13       7     29      0.194

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 3

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

The USC loss today... was huge.... the fact the tOSU/USC winner went down in the following week is impossible to understate.

If Texas wins out, they are highly likely in.

There are only 29 (out of 120) undefeated teams left in FBS after a mere three weeks of action, and many of these teams are "pretenders." Below, you'll see the way the remaining undefeated teams are ranked, by order of most difficult schedule (projecting with all teams on their schedule, and obviously this is very early).

OK, so based on SOS, Texas is very middle of the pack. Yes, if you want to sweat out the fact PSU and Cal have stronger schedules (at this point), that might be a slight concern. Yes, the Big XII is not doing all that great (ranking 4th among the six major BCS conferences). But with USC losing today, the human votes are likely to remain entrenched with Florida and Texas until either team loses. Cal and PSU have an uphill battle on the human vote front.

Cal and PSU may be incremental "threats," but basically, I think Texas controls its destiny. Which may not have been entirely true when USC was undefeated.

******UNDEFEATED TEAMS (RANKED BY PROJ-SOS)******
Team          SOS  ProjSOS 
California   0.678  0.637 
Iowa         0.875  0.637 
Arizona St   0.222  0.625 
LSU          0.738  0.618 
Alabama      0.631  0.611  
Wisconsin    0.427  0.593 
UCLA         0.372  0.591 
Miami FL     0.917  0.581 
Auburn       0.598  0.572 
Indiana      0.489  0.571 
Penn State   0.467  0.564 
Michigan     0.524  0.540 
Kansas       0.467  0.539 
Texas        0.389  0.537 
Kentucky     0.148  0.532 
So Florida   0.154  0.530 
Pittsburgh   0.487  0.523 
No Carolina  0.694  0.522 
Mississippi  0.111  0.518 
Missouri     0.500  0.516 
Florida      0.400  0.511 
Cincinnati   0.578  0.456 
Texas A&M    0.190  0.429 
Hawai`i      0.515  0.398 
TCU          0.333  0.393 
Houston      0.476  0.385 
Sou Miss     0.417  0.371 
Boise St     0.511  0.367 
Colorado St  0.318  0.361 

******CONFERENCE RANKINGS (OUT OF CONF GAMES)******
         AllWins FBSWins  AllLoss  Win % 
SEC        19      14         2    0.875 
Pac10      19      15         6    0.714 
Big10      24      18         8    0.692 
BigXII     23      17         9    0.654 
BigE       16       9         5    0.643 
ACC        17       9        10    0.474 
MWC        13       7        11    0.389 
USA        13       6        13    0.316 
WAC         9       5        12    0.294 
SunB        8       5        16    0.238 
MAC        11       6        25    0.194

BCS Projection/Analysis Week 2

This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.

First of all, let it be said: it’s highly unusual for there to be three undefeated BCS conference teams at the end of the year. It’s only happened once in the BCS era (2003), and most “controversies” have usually occurred when multiple one-loss teams are vying for a bid. So basically, it would be very unusual to see three or four undefeated teams at the end of the year. And it’s therefore not even really worth worrying about… yet.

But, if you believe the major contenders will win out, then yes, USC could become a problem. Will USC gain some “human” votes tomorrow? Yes. Will they have stronger computer rankings than Texas in a few weeks? At this stage, it looks like the answer is yes. Projecting ahead with all opponents (but bearing in mind this data includes only two whopping weeks of football), USC is well positioned relative to the other major contenders.

And with the Big 10 maddeningly eeking out wins (by the skin of their teeth) out of conference, they are now the second strongest conference in the country (for now). Which means PSU could also compete stronger in the computers than we would have initially expected.

Yes, the fact that OU and OSU have fallen from grace is less than ideal. Yes, the fact CU, UCF and UTEP are sucking beyond expectations is not good. But, I like how Texas’ schedule sets up later in the year, closing out with what is looking like a pretty good KU team, an improved A&M team, and a potentially strong north team in the title game (leaving a better “last impression,” which we learned last year is important). No, the Texas schedule is not as strong as it was in 2008, but it only matters to the extent the human vote gets down to razor thin margins… and we just have no idea.

So there’s just not really any good reason to be concerned (yet).
A) It’s very early
B) I really don’t believe we’ll have three or more undefeated teams
C) if schedule quality becomes a hot debate, Florida isn’t exactly in a great position, either
D) at least we really don’t have to worry about the three-way tie Big XII south scenario anymore (assuming all 3 teams have one conference loss in a round-robin, Texas would only have one loss total, while OU and OSU would have two total losses).

Early number crunching follows. SOS does not include potential conference championship games.

Major Contenders’ Projected SOS (with all opponents on schedule included)
Bama    0.615
LSU     0.614
USC     0.594
PSU     0.556
Miss    0.542
Texas   0.476
Florida 0.465
BYU     0.400

Conference Power Rankings (OOC win percentage)
SEC      0.818 
Big10    0.813 
BigXII   0.647 
Pac10    0.636 
BigE     0.571 
MWC      0.545 
ACC      0.462 
WAC      0.273 
SunB     0.231 
MAC      0.227 
USA      0.200