Week 4 BCS Update -- Licking the Wounds

In the year of our lord two thousand and seven, I was presented with a dilemma.

For the 2004, 2005 and 2006 seasons, I had been diligently preparing BCS updates on Longhorn boards (2004 was by far the most interesting, for obvious reasons). But on September 29, 2007, I stood in the stands of DKR, drenched by a brutal rain storm, glaring at the unthinkable on the scoreboard: KSU 41, Texas 21. What a shitty day. The morning's tailgating had gone atrociously. My brother, seated to my right, was still visibly shaking from his rage unleashed about an hour before, when he had yelled, flailed, and nearly tore his own shirt off from frustration of seeing the Bobino/Derry/Killebrew trotted out series after series after series.

So having seen Texas completely piss away any shot of a national title, I began to think... this BCS stuff, why the hell should I even bother? I certainly didn't care anymore. And I knew no Longhorn fan really cared about the BCS, when the gravitational pull of San Diego and the Holiday Bowl can be felt thousands of miles and three months away.

I was a weak man. I should have stuck with it. Looking back in my archive of BCS musings, 2007 sits there as a gaping hole. I'm not proud of it.

So here we are again. And yes, if the analogy isn’t abundantly clear, to be perfectly blunt: Texas has pissed away any shot of a national title in 2010. I don’t think most Horn fans were expecting this season to pan out with an invite to Glendale for all the marbles, but I am pretty sure none of us expected a 22 point ass-kicking at the hands of a 1-2, middle of the road Pac10 team, either.

Anyhoo, for the love of the game, I’m going to try and stick with it as long as I can. Ultimately, I’d like to get more interest “nationally,” meaning I would be very excited if Tide or Husker or Duck fans would ever want to take a look at what I might project on a given week. So if this is really the end goal, that means I need to bite the bullet and still post an update. Fight through it. Do it for the kids.

I really don’t expect many on BC to read this, and that’s perfectly cool, I understand. But again. It’s for the kids.

Luckily, on this difficult weekend there is little to say. The conferences, by and large, remain generally in their form from the prior week. The SEC went 3-0 in its limited OOC action. The Big XII went 5-1 (GEE… I WONDER WHO THE “1” IS??). The Big10 went 6-2 against a slate of MAC crap. The Pac10 went 2-1 with UCLA suddenly giving the league some unexpected credibility.

The WAC, however, did its best to snub Boise’s toe on the evening of its “big” (whatever) win against Oregon State, as the WAC went a lousy 2-6 on out-of-conference games. As a result, the WAC has fallen to the bottom half of the 11 FBS conferences, and their mediocre 0.360 winning percentage out of conference will be the albatross for Boise we’ve come to expect year by year.

The MWC went 4-1. Good for them. They are still not putting together anything near the impressive record they had in 2009, and ultimately, TCU is going to be held back greatly by the weakness of its league.

So other than licking our wounds as Longhorn fans, is there any broader national implications from the stunning Texas loss? Possibly. I think Nebraska (which saw its SOS fall from 25th to 33rd nationally) really could have used having an undefeated Longhorn team in Lincoln. Or at least one with a semblance of credibility. So although the Huskers may have really enjoyed the ass-kicking in Austin, the more intelligent (or at least those that try to see the big picture) already know this doesn’t help Nebraska if they are having to compete against an undefeated Ohio State in December.

OU is in prime position as well, but I can say with some conviction that they also have shown multiple red flags on the field as the season has progressed. So the notion of the Sooners winning out seems a little.... um.... out there right now. I guess crazier things have happened.

Florida and Alabama have the best position (as usual) to get to Glendale, and that probably includes getting there as a one loss team. S-E-C! S-E-C!

TCU and Boise are simply not getting enough help from their leagues to make NC runs. Boise’s schedule is too weak, and the VT victory remains tainted by JMU. And TCU suffers from a ceiling known as Boise State – they seem unlikely to jump Boise at any point. After all, TCU got hurt indirectly by Boise beating their best quality opponent (Oregon State). TCU also suffers from the voter perception that Boise beat TCU head-to-head on a neutral field less than 12 months ago. Yes, that was a different season, but many of the players returned for both teams involved. You and I both know plenty of voters will keep that in the back of their minds.

Bottom Line: The horrific Longhorn loss is a major demerit for the BigXII. Along with other BigXII teams struggling mightily (OU vs. Cincy, USU and AF, A&M vs. FIU, etc.), I think the perception of the BigXII is hurting despite the numbers suggesting it is the second strongest league. My thesis from last week that Ohio State may get leapfrogged by a solid BigXII team no longer seems true. The SEC champ and Ohio State "controlling their destiny" at this point, with the Ducks and Huskers/Sooners waiting in the wings. Boise/TCU remain long-shots.

Week 3 BCS Update -- Buckeyes Beware

BUCKEYES BEWARE

After a rather uneventful weekend of college football (Iowa’s loss to Arizona is probably the only notable upset, effectively eliminating the Hawkeyes from national title contention), Ohio State fans should start to be getting concerned about their resume. The Buckeyes rank very near the bottom among top 10 contenders in terms of their projected strength of schedule.

Why is this happening? It is not really the fault of their conference, as the Big 10 has a solid third place position among the eleven conferences (0.760 winning percentage OOC). In fact, Ohio State manages to have the very worst projected SOS among all eleven teams in the Big 10.

Ohio State’s OOC schedule is certainly not helping. Marshall and Eastern Michigan are both 0-3 (and the latter may well lose their next nine, if previous seasons are any indication). Ohio has yet to beat an FBS foe. Even the “marquee” win against Miami (FL) is inflicting some collateral damage to Ohio State, as the ACC severely lags among the power conferences.

Ohio State’s in-conference slate is also hurting, at least thus far. The Buckeyes will not play undefeated Michigan State or 3-0 Northwestern. And games that previously appeared to have mega-game potential, Iowa and Penn State, are both diminished given early season road losses for the Hawkeyes and Lions. And neither Wisconsin or Michigan has looked impressive enough, thus far, to make it very believable that they will maintain their undefeated records.

Make no mistake: Ohio State is the de facto #2 in the human polls, and that is a powerful edge to have in their corner. But Ohio State should get very nervous if an undefeated Big XII team builds momentum, as an outright jump in the BCS standings is very possible.

BITTERSWEET FROGS

TCU is rightfully earning the nation’s respect after posting solid victories over AQ-conference opponents, even if Oregon State and Baylor are not necessarily among the nation’s elite. Unfortunately, TCU’s title chances took a body blow given the Mountain West’s performance out-of-conference this weekend. Wyoming, Air Force, SDSU, CSU, BYU, and UNLV all lost their OOC games. Ouch. The Mountain West was an impressively strong conference in 2009, but they now rank 9th out of 11 conferences so far this year.

I think TCU is a near-lock to get an at-large BCS bid if they continue to win so impressively, but they remain a long shot to get to the championship game.

NOW THAT'S JUST "WAC"

Conversely, the Mountain West’s loss is Boise’s gain. Boise dominated Wyoming and Idaho clobbered UNLV to make an impressive statement on the MWC vs. WAC debate. Even more amazing was Nevada’s stomping of Cal, giving the WAC some credibility as they now clock in at #5 in the conference rankings.

If James Madison hadn’t embarrassed Virginia Tech (and East Carolina gave the Hokies everything they could handle as well), Boise really could be making things interesting. But in the meantime, Boise has little chance to go to the NC game. Give every major AQ conference team a loss, and it’s worth revisiting (but still unlikely).

BIG XII POWER

It may not always be pretty (A&M over FIU, Missouri over SDSU, OU over AF), but the Big XII has really put together a strong start out of the gate, and the window for differentiation among the conferences is closing fast as we head to conference play.

The Big XII’s winning percentage is slightly behind the SEC, but the Big XII has also posted far more victories over FBS teams than the SEC. These victories in September are really going to help the team that emerges from the Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska trifecta. Bear in mind, my team rankings for SOS have yet to factor in a conference title game boost as well. Bottom line, the Big XII contenders couldn’t have asked for a better start to the season.

Believe it or not, Texas (on paper) now holds the second strongest schedule in the country. Even a game that looked doomed to be a loss turned into a major coup, as UCLA upset undefeated (and ranked) UH. Let’s face it, Texas’ OOC opponents are precarious and will be lucky to win week-by-week, but Texas is getting major benefits from the strength of its conference.


In a couple more weeks, as more season/data gets put in the books, we can start taking a closer look at the computers and BCS rankings.

Assessing the BCS race after Week 2

2008 All Over Again? -- It’s incredibly early, but the Big XII is highly outperforming expectations in out-of-conference games, and the soon-to-be-downsized league is now at the top of the conference standings. The Big XII's conference strength is fueling projected SOS for Oklahoma (#2 overall SOS right now), Texas (#7 SOS) and Nebraska (#16).

Oklahoma in particular is in prime shape if they win out, given a well-rounded schedule and marquee games against Texas and potentially Nebraska. Texas is not as strong as Oklahoma, but like OU, Texas still benefits from the fact that the Big XII South has been starting strong.

The SEC teams are slightly behind the Big XII in technical numbers, but human perception of the SEC will probably trump the Big XII when push comes to shove. Bama's solid pounding of PSU adds validation to the SEC's perceived strength. If current trends continue, we could see a third consecutive season where the SEC and Big XII seem on a path of destiny to meet in the national title game.

But What About Ohio State? -- Given their solid #2 ranking in the human polls, an undefeated Ohio State would seem a default choice to play the SEC winner, but clearly that conflicts with what I just said about the Big XII. How exactly is this going to get resolved? Obviously, a lot of football remains to be played, and these BCS nightmares often get solved on their own. But if I’m a Buckeye fan, I should be a little alarmed that Ohio State’s SOS ranks 73rd (out of 120 FBS teams) after two weeks of action. Consider:

• Marshall lost a heartbreaker to WVU,
  
• Ohio lost to Toledo,
  
• EMU has started 0-2,
  
• Illinois/Indiana/Purdue have yet to win a FBS game
  
• Minnesota lost to South Dakota
  
• PSU was embarrassed by Bama.
  

The only saving grace to Ohio State might be the way they finish the year, with big games against Iowa and Michigan. If Ohio State wants to ensure they don’t get leapfrogged by an undefeated Big XII team as the year plays out, they should want the Hawkeyes and Wolverines to come into those games as strong as possible.

If Ohio State, the SEC winner, and the BigXII winner all go undefeated, we could have a real mess on our hands in early December.

Buh-Bye, Boise State -- There’s really not too much to say about Boise’s devastating setback by virtue of Virginia Tech losing to sub-FBS team James Madison. I believe the VT loss is pretty much a deal killer for Boise, as it clearly takes off almost the entire luster from the Labor Day win. The WAC is generally flailing as expected in out-of-conference games, and I previously postulated Boise would need a perfect storm of VT and Oregon State putting forward highly impressive records.

I suppose we can put Boise back in the running if VT rallies to win the ACC and go 10-2, but absent that kind of miracle, I believe Boise is now a long shot for the national title game, even though they could very well stay entrenched at a #3 or #4 ranking in the human polls for the rest of the year. Boise’s only hope is if the stronger conferences (Big XII, SEC, Big10) all have two losses and the weaker conferences (ACC, Pac10) all have one loss. An undefeated Boise is highly likely to get an automatic berth as an at large, however.

Thoughts on Other Contenders -- No need to get too granular being so early in the year, but Iowa and Wisconsin can make strong moves if they win out. Oregon has quickly moved up to a #6 ranking in the coaches poll, but the Pac10 has had a lukewarm start to the year… they will be an interesting team to keep an eye on. TCU still lacks a big game on its schedule outside the victory over Oregon State; although Utah could be a platform game in early November, TCU closes the year with SDSU and New Mexico.

Brief Week 1 BCS Update

We still have yet to see the biggest BCS related match up of the weekend (Boise/VT), but that game is pretty clear cut as far as NC implications. As I've said previously, I believe Boise can make a serious NC game run as an undefeated team if: a) teams from the big boy conferences (SEC, Big 10, Big XII, and ACC) all have at least one loss, b) VT puts together a solid 10-2 type of season after losing to the Broncos, c) Oregon State puts together an 8-4 type of season after losing to the Broncos (a win over TCU sure would have helped), and d) the WAC can win a few OOC match-ups to make the conference perceived as at least mediocre in the pecking order of leagues.

So the Boise/VT game is what it is. I'm not going to let the game's unusual Monday night timing prevent us from taking a look at how the initial weekend went for the key conferences. There is no better way in these early days to assess what is happening than to look at how the out-of-conference battles are shaping up. The Big XII posted a surprisingly solid 9-1 record in the initial weekend of action (this counts only FBS wins and all losses... so for instance, A&M's win over SFA is not included in the victory tally). The SEC also delivered with an 8-2 mark. The bizarre irony is that both of these leagues sit atop the Week 1 conference standings despite the fact that they each suffered a major black eye, as Ole Miss and Kansas proceeded to embarrass themselves by losing outright to their FCS patsies. The Big 10 was the only other conference to maintain a winning record. The ACC posted only two games that qualified for our rankings, as the league played 10 games against FCS opponents (um, what the hell??) Maryland and VT still play games tomorrow. The MAC and CUSA went completely winless, which may not be all that surprising. The Big East suffered an embarassing 1-4 weekend, punctuated by Pitt's notable loss at Utah. The Pac-10 also seems to be continuing its recent trend of slow starts, with a lackluster 3-4 record.

Now let's look at developments from an individual team perspective. One may think it's foolish to look at strength-of-schedule this early in the year, but these games that were just played, although early, still count in December. Just ask any Texas or Oklahoma fan in 2008, given the minuscule final margin between them, how important each week was in the scheme of things. Looking at the win/loss records of all opponents on each teams schedule, Iowa again appears to have a great jump on the strength-of-schedule front, with eight of its future opponents winning their games, and zero losing. Texas, Florida and Oklahoma also saw fairly solid performances by their future opponents. While Oregon's absurd 72-0 victory drew a lot of attention, the Ducks have problems in the BCS computers looming given the pathetic 2-5 performance of their future opponents (obviously highly related to the Pac-10's weakness described above). And at the absolute bottom, as we would expect, we see TCU and Boise State's schedules have started quite poorly.

At this ridiculously early stage of the year, the season has a 2008 feel to it. The Big XII and SEC contenders can benefit greatly if their leagues continue the momentum. Keep an eye on Iowa.... if they can knock off Ohio State later in the year, they might create some noise in the BCS standings much like they did a year ago. I continue to believe TCU has remote odds to get into the NC picture barring absolute chaos (think 2007 where two loss teams are still contending for the NC).