This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.
On a random April Saturday, sitting and watching the NFL draft, an unexpected painful memory was put in front of us. When Michael Crabtree got selected, there it was again for everyone to see, twisting the knife. His “highlight” for which he had become famous. Three different angles on the replay. The mind-boggling breakdown in coverage between two defenders that not only ruined what could have been an undefeated regular season, but also became the first bizarre incident in a three way tie nightmare that ended excruciatingly for Texas.
Frankly, a lot of the days since that point in time, I’ve really tried to just forget about what happened. It was such a cruel convergence of events that ultimately kept the Horns behind the Sooners in that crucial weekend of the BCS rankings. Yes, so another dramatic Longhorn postseason win, this time against the Buckeyes, was a good consolation prize. But now that six months have passed since “Black Sunday,” I’m going to try and take a look back, as objectively as possible, at why the BCS played out the way I did.
I would like to begin by apologizing to you all, as I did that day when it became clear Texas was not going to pull it out. I am sorry that my final BCS prediction -- as many caveats and contingencies as I placed on it late the night before -- was wrong. No doubt, I was much more confident in calling Texas over Cal in 2004, as the computer lead for Texas was substantial, the math was clear cut, and the number of swayed voters needed was minimal. The 2008 Texas/OU call was much more to the wire. So late on that Saturday night, after the dust had settled after the Sooners beat the Cowboys, I made my call. But when I woke up bright and early the next morning, and saw that the Sagarin poll had gone in the Sooners’ favor, I knew that my prediction was in serious jeopardy. Although I kept it my original prediction on the board “for the record,” I essentially indicated at that point on Sunday morning the Horns faced an uphill battle they were unlikely to win.
So what the heck happened? Why was it this close and why did it not work out for Texas? The following should hopefully shed some light. The reality is that many of these factors, by themselves, would not have propelled OU ahead of Texas… it was the fateful combination of a lot of these factors that came together at the very last moment in OU’s favor, allowing them to face the impotent Missouri Tigers in a joke of a conference title game, and ultimately gain a seed in the national title game.
So let’s begin. This is a lot to chew on.
“Exit Polling” Failed as a Reliable Indicator
Two-thirds of the BCS, as you know, is driven by the “human” voters, the coaches and Harris polls. For weeks leading up to the final weekend, the Big XII three way tie scenario had become abundantly clear to the press. Dozens of hours were spent nationally on ESPN Gameday, sports radio, talk shows, and other forums about the “what ifs.” What if Texas and OU were locked in a three way tie with Texas Tech? Given this media dialogue was an excellent way to keep a finger on the pulse of voter sentiment, especially for the media-influenced Harris Poll, I closely followed these shows. I don’t have a scientific tracking to present, but I assure you that the vast majority of media that commented on this issue indicated Texas should be ranked ahead of OU, with the 45 to 35 outcome in Dallas being cited. Even at midnight, when the ESPN commentators provided their final take, this sentiment was still strong. So that influenced my subjective prediction on the human vote. Yes, Texas did pick up human votes in the final week, so the directionality of the movements indicated this was not an unreasonable expectation. Unfortunately, the magnitude of the human vote movement was below what I expected.
What Have You Done for Me Lately?
The obvious lesson is the later you impress the voters, the better. Texas had an uphill battle by having its win over OU occur in the first half of the year. OU’s win over Tech was much more recent, and even though the Texas/OU game was on a neutral field, while OU’s win over Tech was in their own friendly confines, and the Texas loss to Tech was in a hostile environment, voters tend to favor recency.
Strength of Schedule Becomes an S.O.S.
During the season’s final weeks, OU’s schedule was only going to get stronger, and Texas’ was going to get weaker. Clearly, when OU still had to play Tech and OSU, while Texas was playing KU and A&M, the advantages were sizable in OU’s favor. However, with about two weeks remaining before the crucial BCS vote, I still believed that Texas would hold OU off in the computers given the fact their SOS would remain slightly better than OU. Unfortunately, a string of horrible luck began to unfold, where Longhorn opponents were losing, and Sooner opponents were winning. In fact, in the last two weeks of the season, 10 games went OU’s way, with only 5 games going Texas’ way (one we’ll talk more about in a minute). Clearly, the strength of schedule consideration, which had been substantially pro-Texas for most of the year, basically fell apart at crunch time.
"Cosmetics" of OU Victory over OSU
The OU win was not necessarily convincing. In fact, in the fourth quarter, the score was 44-41, and OSU had significant momentum. Unfortunately, the game began to fall apart, and OU ultimately prevailed 61-41, including an almost comical touchdown within the game’s last minute. Do not misconstrue what I say: OU was clearly the better team, and they posted a solid win. However, the 20 point margin did not really capture how close the game was, and for the human polls’ lazier voters who did not see the game, that misleading final score may have resulted in some (and we may mean very incremental) benefit to OU at Texas’ expense.
A Fateful Kick in Lincoln
Colorado at Nebraska was a crucial game in deciding the BCS, because it was a pure match-up between a Texas opponent and an Oklahoma opponent. Nebraska kicked an amazing field goal as time expired to win the game. I have had a lot of time to study this. Several of the computers were very close. I know for a fact OU would have been one notch lower in Colley if the score were reversed. I actually contacted all of the computer polls’ creators to ask them, hypothetically, what their poll would have looked like if they were reversed. A few were friendly, a few never responded, but all indicated that they would not recalculate, just to see. In fact, one even said he would not be able to go back and re-run it. Considering how important their calculations are to the seeding of the national championship, I definitely think the “audit trail” for recalculating their results is questionable (with the exception of Colley Matrix). But I digress. The main point is a Colorado win would have gone a long way to have cut down the OU computer lead. A few human voters would probably have had to switch as well, but it’s another heartbreaking element of the way the BCS unfolded.
Parting Thoughts
Texas was doomed early Sunday morning. As I mentioned, when Sagarin came out pro-OU at the crack of dawn, it was all over. As a Longhorn fan, it was a sickening feeling to realize that despite all of the anticipation, the arguments, the analysis, and the fruitless rooting interests in peripheral games, it was all over.
What about the 45-35 campaign? There were a lot of good talking points and great coverage, but it’s pretty much impossible to tell if it convinced any voters, or irritated them. Let me just say this: with a three-way tie, it is a function that cannot be solved, and so subjective tiebreakers must instead be used. I’m not going to be intellectually dishonest and say I don’t understand why OU got the edge. They were a strong team, they made a good case, and they had a lot of things go in their favor. Who knows, maybe in some cosmic Karma phenomenon, perhaps Texas had drawn too much and was due to get hosed. After the 2004 drama (Okla St comeback, KU comeback, Rose Bowl Bid, VY show), 2005 magical season (Okla St comeback and the greatest national championship of all time), and countless Colt McCoy comebacks in 2006 through 2008, we have been blessed as a fan base. Maybe it was time to pay the piper. But man... it still hurts.
