This was originally posted on Orangebloods.com "Inside the 40 Acres," so it obviously focuses on the BCS from the perspective of Texas fans.
Good morning, gentlemen. Coming from my Blackberry on this one. My personal life is chaos, we just moved from the Austin area to Dallas. Movers unloaded yesterday, boxes everywhere, fussy kids, lots of fun.
Also means I have no active internet connection, so I'm flying a little blind. Have the laptop, though.
I saw from other posts that sagarin elo chess came out at 24 for tex and 23 for florida. Slightly less pro-texas than I expected. I thinbk 0.04 seems like the right forecast for tex's computer lead, with ah being vulnerable to go against texas, and km vulnerable for florida. Here's my projection, and I'd definitely appreciate any comments. Tex first, then flordia on the numbers below.
Ah 23 22
Rb 22 24
Cm 24 23
Km 23 22
Js 24 23
Pw 24 21
If ah goes anti-texas, tex comp lead is only 0.02. If km goes anti-fla, tex comp lead is up to 0.05.
With a 0.04 comp lead, tex must stay within 29pts and 58pts of fla in the coaches and harris polls respectively. We'll tweak the exact need on the harris poll when the coaches poll comes out. If someone could post the poll results here when they come out, that would be excellent.
Texas needs some good representation with no1 and no2 votes. Without that, this won't happen.
It's all on the humans. No way to tell how they vote.
I don't really think it's likely tex will stay no2, but I'll give it a 20pct shot. In some ways, that big xii game was so comical (beating mizz seems meaningless), maybe the same people that had tex ahead of ou last week will keep it that way.
One good piece of news, I'm not sure the voters are educated on these dynamics. They may think they are punishing ou if they rank them below texas, when they are really punishing florida.
We'll keep an eye out for the coachea poll. That will tell us pretty much what we need to know.
