Week 5

see bcs101.fantake.com for the full post

Week 4 BCS Update -- Licking the Wounds

In the year of our lord two thousand and seven, I was presented with a dilemma.

For the 2004, 2005 and 2006 seasons, I had been diligently preparing BCS updates on Longhorn boards (2004 was by far the most interesting, for obvious reasons). But on September 29, 2007, I stood in the stands of DKR, drenched by a brutal rain storm, glaring at the unthinkable on the scoreboard: KSU 41, Texas 21. What a shitty day. The morning's tailgating had gone atrociously. My brother, seated to my right, was still visibly shaking from his rage unleashed about an hour before, when he had yelled, flailed, and nearly tore his own shirt off from frustration of seeing the Bobino/Derry/Killebrew trotted out series after series after series.

So having seen Texas completely piss away any shot of a national title, I began to think... this BCS stuff, why the hell should I even bother? I certainly didn't care anymore. And I knew no Longhorn fan really cared about the BCS, when the gravitational pull of San Diego and the Holiday Bowl can be felt thousands of miles and three months away.

I was a weak man. I should have stuck with it. Looking back in my archive of BCS musings, 2007 sits there as a gaping hole. I'm not proud of it.

So here we are again. And yes, if the analogy isn’t abundantly clear, to be perfectly blunt: Texas has pissed away any shot of a national title in 2010. I don’t think most Horn fans were expecting this season to pan out with an invite to Glendale for all the marbles, but I am pretty sure none of us expected a 22 point ass-kicking at the hands of a 1-2, middle of the road Pac10 team, either.

Anyhoo, for the love of the game, I’m going to try and stick with it as long as I can. Ultimately, I’d like to get more interest “nationally,” meaning I would be very excited if Tide or Husker or Duck fans would ever want to take a look at what I might project on a given week. So if this is really the end goal, that means I need to bite the bullet and still post an update. Fight through it. Do it for the kids.

I really don’t expect many on BC to read this, and that’s perfectly cool, I understand. But again. It’s for the kids.

Luckily, on this difficult weekend there is little to say. The conferences, by and large, remain generally in their form from the prior week. The SEC went 3-0 in its limited OOC action. The Big XII went 5-1 (GEE… I WONDER WHO THE “1” IS??). The Big10 went 6-2 against a slate of MAC crap. The Pac10 went 2-1 with UCLA suddenly giving the league some unexpected credibility.

The WAC, however, did its best to snub Boise’s toe on the evening of its “big” (whatever) win against Oregon State, as the WAC went a lousy 2-6 on out-of-conference games. As a result, the WAC has fallen to the bottom half of the 11 FBS conferences, and their mediocre 0.360 winning percentage out of conference will be the albatross for Boise we’ve come to expect year by year.

The MWC went 4-1. Good for them. They are still not putting together anything near the impressive record they had in 2009, and ultimately, TCU is going to be held back greatly by the weakness of its league.

So other than licking our wounds as Longhorn fans, is there any broader national implications from the stunning Texas loss? Possibly. I think Nebraska (which saw its SOS fall from 25th to 33rd nationally) really could have used having an undefeated Longhorn team in Lincoln. Or at least one with a semblance of credibility. So although the Huskers may have really enjoyed the ass-kicking in Austin, the more intelligent (or at least those that try to see the big picture) already know this doesn’t help Nebraska if they are having to compete against an undefeated Ohio State in December.

OU is in prime position as well, but I can say with some conviction that they also have shown multiple red flags on the field as the season has progressed. So the notion of the Sooners winning out seems a little.... um.... out there right now. I guess crazier things have happened.

Florida and Alabama have the best position (as usual) to get to Glendale, and that probably includes getting there as a one loss team. S-E-C! S-E-C!

TCU and Boise are simply not getting enough help from their leagues to make NC runs. Boise’s schedule is too weak, and the VT victory remains tainted by JMU. And TCU suffers from a ceiling known as Boise State – they seem unlikely to jump Boise at any point. After all, TCU got hurt indirectly by Boise beating their best quality opponent (Oregon State). TCU also suffers from the voter perception that Boise beat TCU head-to-head on a neutral field less than 12 months ago. Yes, that was a different season, but many of the players returned for both teams involved. You and I both know plenty of voters will keep that in the back of their minds.

Bottom Line: The horrific Longhorn loss is a major demerit for the BigXII. Along with other BigXII teams struggling mightily (OU vs. Cincy, USU and AF, A&M vs. FIU, etc.), I think the perception of the BigXII is hurting despite the numbers suggesting it is the second strongest league. My thesis from last week that Ohio State may get leapfrogged by a solid BigXII team no longer seems true. The SEC champ and Ohio State "controlling their destiny" at this point, with the Ducks and Huskers/Sooners waiting in the wings. Boise/TCU remain long-shots.

Week 3 BCS Update -- Buckeyes Beware

BUCKEYES BEWARE

After a rather uneventful weekend of college football (Iowa’s loss to Arizona is probably the only notable upset, effectively eliminating the Hawkeyes from national title contention), Ohio State fans should start to be getting concerned about their resume. The Buckeyes rank very near the bottom among top 10 contenders in terms of their projected strength of schedule.

Why is this happening? It is not really the fault of their conference, as the Big 10 has a solid third place position among the eleven conferences (0.760 winning percentage OOC). In fact, Ohio State manages to have the very worst projected SOS among all eleven teams in the Big 10.

Ohio State’s OOC schedule is certainly not helping. Marshall and Eastern Michigan are both 0-3 (and the latter may well lose their next nine, if previous seasons are any indication). Ohio has yet to beat an FBS foe. Even the “marquee” win against Miami (FL) is inflicting some collateral damage to Ohio State, as the ACC severely lags among the power conferences.

Ohio State’s in-conference slate is also hurting, at least thus far. The Buckeyes will not play undefeated Michigan State or 3-0 Northwestern. And games that previously appeared to have mega-game potential, Iowa and Penn State, are both diminished given early season road losses for the Hawkeyes and Lions. And neither Wisconsin or Michigan has looked impressive enough, thus far, to make it very believable that they will maintain their undefeated records.

Make no mistake: Ohio State is the de facto #2 in the human polls, and that is a powerful edge to have in their corner. But Ohio State should get very nervous if an undefeated Big XII team builds momentum, as an outright jump in the BCS standings is very possible.

BITTERSWEET FROGS

TCU is rightfully earning the nation’s respect after posting solid victories over AQ-conference opponents, even if Oregon State and Baylor are not necessarily among the nation’s elite. Unfortunately, TCU’s title chances took a body blow given the Mountain West’s performance out-of-conference this weekend. Wyoming, Air Force, SDSU, CSU, BYU, and UNLV all lost their OOC games. Ouch. The Mountain West was an impressively strong conference in 2009, but they now rank 9th out of 11 conferences so far this year.

I think TCU is a near-lock to get an at-large BCS bid if they continue to win so impressively, but they remain a long shot to get to the championship game.

NOW THAT'S JUST "WAC"

Conversely, the Mountain West’s loss is Boise’s gain. Boise dominated Wyoming and Idaho clobbered UNLV to make an impressive statement on the MWC vs. WAC debate. Even more amazing was Nevada’s stomping of Cal, giving the WAC some credibility as they now clock in at #5 in the conference rankings.

If James Madison hadn’t embarrassed Virginia Tech (and East Carolina gave the Hokies everything they could handle as well), Boise really could be making things interesting. But in the meantime, Boise has little chance to go to the NC game. Give every major AQ conference team a loss, and it’s worth revisiting (but still unlikely).

BIG XII POWER

It may not always be pretty (A&M over FIU, Missouri over SDSU, OU over AF), but the Big XII has really put together a strong start out of the gate, and the window for differentiation among the conferences is closing fast as we head to conference play.

The Big XII’s winning percentage is slightly behind the SEC, but the Big XII has also posted far more victories over FBS teams than the SEC. These victories in September are really going to help the team that emerges from the Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska trifecta. Bear in mind, my team rankings for SOS have yet to factor in a conference title game boost as well. Bottom line, the Big XII contenders couldn’t have asked for a better start to the season.

Believe it or not, Texas (on paper) now holds the second strongest schedule in the country. Even a game that looked doomed to be a loss turned into a major coup, as UCLA upset undefeated (and ranked) UH. Let’s face it, Texas’ OOC opponents are precarious and will be lucky to win week-by-week, but Texas is getting major benefits from the strength of its conference.


In a couple more weeks, as more season/data gets put in the books, we can start taking a closer look at the computers and BCS rankings.

Assessing the BCS race after Week 2

2008 All Over Again? -- It’s incredibly early, but the Big XII is highly outperforming expectations in out-of-conference games, and the soon-to-be-downsized league is now at the top of the conference standings. The Big XII's conference strength is fueling projected SOS for Oklahoma (#2 overall SOS right now), Texas (#7 SOS) and Nebraska (#16).

Oklahoma in particular is in prime shape if they win out, given a well-rounded schedule and marquee games against Texas and potentially Nebraska. Texas is not as strong as Oklahoma, but like OU, Texas still benefits from the fact that the Big XII South has been starting strong.

The SEC teams are slightly behind the Big XII in technical numbers, but human perception of the SEC will probably trump the Big XII when push comes to shove. Bama's solid pounding of PSU adds validation to the SEC's perceived strength. If current trends continue, we could see a third consecutive season where the SEC and Big XII seem on a path of destiny to meet in the national title game.

But What About Ohio State? -- Given their solid #2 ranking in the human polls, an undefeated Ohio State would seem a default choice to play the SEC winner, but clearly that conflicts with what I just said about the Big XII. How exactly is this going to get resolved? Obviously, a lot of football remains to be played, and these BCS nightmares often get solved on their own. But if I’m a Buckeye fan, I should be a little alarmed that Ohio State’s SOS ranks 73rd (out of 120 FBS teams) after two weeks of action. Consider:

• Marshall lost a heartbreaker to WVU,
  
• Ohio lost to Toledo,
  
• EMU has started 0-2,
  
• Illinois/Indiana/Purdue have yet to win a FBS game
  
• Minnesota lost to South Dakota
  
• PSU was embarrassed by Bama.
  

The only saving grace to Ohio State might be the way they finish the year, with big games against Iowa and Michigan. If Ohio State wants to ensure they don’t get leapfrogged by an undefeated Big XII team as the year plays out, they should want the Hawkeyes and Wolverines to come into those games as strong as possible.

If Ohio State, the SEC winner, and the BigXII winner all go undefeated, we could have a real mess on our hands in early December.

Buh-Bye, Boise State -- There’s really not too much to say about Boise’s devastating setback by virtue of Virginia Tech losing to sub-FBS team James Madison. I believe the VT loss is pretty much a deal killer for Boise, as it clearly takes off almost the entire luster from the Labor Day win. The WAC is generally flailing as expected in out-of-conference games, and I previously postulated Boise would need a perfect storm of VT and Oregon State putting forward highly impressive records.

I suppose we can put Boise back in the running if VT rallies to win the ACC and go 10-2, but absent that kind of miracle, I believe Boise is now a long shot for the national title game, even though they could very well stay entrenched at a #3 or #4 ranking in the human polls for the rest of the year. Boise’s only hope is if the stronger conferences (Big XII, SEC, Big10) all have two losses and the weaker conferences (ACC, Pac10) all have one loss. An undefeated Boise is highly likely to get an automatic berth as an at large, however.

Thoughts on Other Contenders -- No need to get too granular being so early in the year, but Iowa and Wisconsin can make strong moves if they win out. Oregon has quickly moved up to a #6 ranking in the coaches poll, but the Pac10 has had a lukewarm start to the year… they will be an interesting team to keep an eye on. TCU still lacks a big game on its schedule outside the victory over Oregon State; although Utah could be a platform game in early November, TCU closes the year with SDSU and New Mexico.

Brief Week 1 BCS Update

We still have yet to see the biggest BCS related match up of the weekend (Boise/VT), but that game is pretty clear cut as far as NC implications. As I've said previously, I believe Boise can make a serious NC game run as an undefeated team if: a) teams from the big boy conferences (SEC, Big 10, Big XII, and ACC) all have at least one loss, b) VT puts together a solid 10-2 type of season after losing to the Broncos, c) Oregon State puts together an 8-4 type of season after losing to the Broncos (a win over TCU sure would have helped), and d) the WAC can win a few OOC match-ups to make the conference perceived as at least mediocre in the pecking order of leagues.

So the Boise/VT game is what it is. I'm not going to let the game's unusual Monday night timing prevent us from taking a look at how the initial weekend went for the key conferences. There is no better way in these early days to assess what is happening than to look at how the out-of-conference battles are shaping up. The Big XII posted a surprisingly solid 9-1 record in the initial weekend of action (this counts only FBS wins and all losses... so for instance, A&M's win over SFA is not included in the victory tally). The SEC also delivered with an 8-2 mark. The bizarre irony is that both of these leagues sit atop the Week 1 conference standings despite the fact that they each suffered a major black eye, as Ole Miss and Kansas proceeded to embarrass themselves by losing outright to their FCS patsies. The Big 10 was the only other conference to maintain a winning record. The ACC posted only two games that qualified for our rankings, as the league played 10 games against FCS opponents (um, what the hell??) Maryland and VT still play games tomorrow. The MAC and CUSA went completely winless, which may not be all that surprising. The Big East suffered an embarassing 1-4 weekend, punctuated by Pitt's notable loss at Utah. The Pac-10 also seems to be continuing its recent trend of slow starts, with a lackluster 3-4 record.

Now let's look at developments from an individual team perspective. One may think it's foolish to look at strength-of-schedule this early in the year, but these games that were just played, although early, still count in December. Just ask any Texas or Oklahoma fan in 2008, given the minuscule final margin between them, how important each week was in the scheme of things. Looking at the win/loss records of all opponents on each teams schedule, Iowa again appears to have a great jump on the strength-of-schedule front, with eight of its future opponents winning their games, and zero losing. Texas, Florida and Oklahoma also saw fairly solid performances by their future opponents. While Oregon's absurd 72-0 victory drew a lot of attention, the Ducks have problems in the BCS computers looming given the pathetic 2-5 performance of their future opponents (obviously highly related to the Pac-10's weakness described above). And at the absolute bottom, as we would expect, we see TCU and Boise State's schedules have started quite poorly.

At this ridiculously early stage of the year, the season has a 2008 feel to it. The Big XII and SEC contenders can benefit greatly if their leagues continue the momentum. Keep an eye on Iowa.... if they can knock off Ohio State later in the year, they might create some noise in the BCS standings much like they did a year ago. I continue to believe TCU has remote odds to get into the NC picture barring absolute chaos (think 2007 where two loss teams are still contending for the NC).

BCS Breakdown - Preseason Edition

With the first slate of Thursday games mere days away, I thought I would provide some thoughts on how the BCS race might unfold during the upcoming season. Much of this discussion is driven by our natural biases about what teams are expected to do in 2010 based on how good they looked in 2009, and that alone makes this kind of preseason analysis dangerous (anyone been in touch with sure-fire Heisman candidate Jevan Snead and his NC-contending Rebels lately?) With that devastating caveat stated, let's start making some ridiculous assumptions and take a look at the key contenders for the national championship game.


THE BOISE ISSUE
Boise State begins as the true hot-button topic of our preseason BCS breakdown. Many of us suspected Boise was going to make some noise in the preseason polls as they wrapped up an undefeated 2009 season with a solid win over TCU. We've now had some time to digest that reality, as there sits Boise perched at #5 in the coaches' poll, along with a staggering #3 AP ranking. Without a doubt, Boise has shattered the glass ceiling on non-AQ teams, garnering by far the best preseason ranking ever (the polls would typically toss a bone to an up-and-coming Boise/TCU/Utah/BYU team with a preseason ranking somewhere in the low-teens... at best).

Before I decompose Boise's chances to truly make a run for playing in Glendale at the end of the year, I want to make clear I have a I high degree of respect for their program. As I have posted previously, Boise has the distinction of being the greatest outperformer (by a healthy margin) when it comes to how their final ranking compares to their preseason ranking. Boise can also claim the best winning percentage among all FBS teams during the decade of the "Aughts" (2000-2009), edging out Texas' 110-19 record with their own 112-17 record. Although they have achieved this success in weaker conferences, they have maintained the excellence under two different head coaches. Boise State has also tended to win a decent amount of games against the "big boys" (see #4 TCU and #16 last year, #17 Oregon in 2008, #10 Oklahoma in 2006), although they have had their share of big game flubs as well (see the close bowl loss to TCU in 2008, the implosion against Georgia in 2005, the Liberty Bowl loss to Louisville in 2004, the lopsided loss to South Carolina in 2001, two losses to Arkie in 2002 and 2000, etc.). Overall, I feel like Boise's big game reputation has been built on the fantastic win over Oklahoma. I also suspect Boise's big game reputation has been inflated somewhat by lazier impressions among the media, as they have a hard time remembering whether it was Boise State or Fresno State winning all of those big games at the turn of the millennium (it was the latter, for the record).

Has Boise earned its reputation to be seeded in the top 10? Absolutely. Should we immediately castigate them for playing in a weak conference? I don't think so... for example, how many years did the Noles get national championship opportunities after running the table in a diluted ACC. I will say that if Boise wants to pull this off, they cannot afford to be putting up conference game stinkers like their unimpressive 45-35 win against La Tech (they were only up 2 in the 4th quarter) or the mediocre 44-33 victory over Nevada.

So what do we really think about their chances in 2010? I think Virginia Tech is a powerful platform game, as it represents the highest quality opponent (at least by ranking) that Boise has ever had as an opportunity. It is the sole college football game being broadcast on Labor Day evening, and I am confident it will have a high level of viewership. If Boise State can defeat Virginia Tech and emerge from September with another victory over Oregon State, there is no question that they are a bona fide national title contender. Anyone who tries to argue otherwise is not being fair or honest.

Clearly, the real problem becomes the rest of the season. To be somewhat crude, Boise basically will have shot their wad (if Lee Corso can say it, so can I) too early in the year. While those intriguing Big 10, SEC and Big XII races are heating up, Boise will become somewhat of an afterthought against the San Jose States and Idahos. I project Boise's schedule strength at about 84th, even with the games against VT and Oregon St, which will create serious problems for Boise in the computers as the year goes on. Boise will also be constantly fighting a pervasive voter prejudice that they aren't as good as the top AQ-conference contenders, even if the lofty preseason rankings may indicate that prejudice is subsiding.

Bottom line, a schedule as weak as Boise's will make it impossible for them to take precedence over an undefeated SEC, Big 10 or Big XII team. But I do not at all subscribe to the consensus that they cannot jump one-loss teams from those conferences; after all, the humans still control 2/3 of this argument when all is said and done. If Boise makes its case on the field, the voters can do their best to send them to Glendale.

However, to pull it off, they will need a near perfect storm in terms of help from other teams. Obviously, key contenders like Bama, Florida, OU, Texas, etc. must all lose a game. Virginia Tech must post an impressive (if not ACC-winning) 10-2 type record, and Oregon State must at least match their 8 win type of year. And it wouldn't hurt if the "stronger" teams in the WAC could win a big out-of-conference game, to help improve the reputation of the conference. Fresno State has some interesting possibilities against Cincinnati, Illinois and Ole Miss. Nevada can try and win a big game or two against Cal, Colorado State and UNLV. La Tech gets shots at Texas A&M, Navy, and Southern Miss. So in summary, if the powerhouses all rack up a loss, if VT and Oregon State can post impressive years, and if Fresno State, Nevada, La Tech and the rest of the WAC can give the conference more of a "MWC feel," I think Boise could very much be in the thick of the national title picture. It sounds outlandish now, but you never know (who thought Butler would be ever-so-close to winning the basketball championship?)

SEC AT THE FOREFRONT
Alabama and Florida control their own destiny. Until we see evidence to the contrary in September, Alabama belongs to the most powerful conference in football and appears to have another extremely difficult schedule ahead of it (#4 most difficult in the country), including a marquee out-of-conference game against Penn State. They are #1 in most polls and as the defending national champions will rightfully get a tremendous amount of support if they continue to win. Florida also enjoys significantly strong perception, and while their schedule doesn't appear nearly as strong (#38 ss), their SEC membership and marquee conference games make them a shoo-in. The rivalry game against Florida State could certainly help Florida's cause if the Noles outperform. Bama and Florida are also highly relevant in the BCS discussion if they sustain an early-to-mid season loss (obviously).

THE STRONGEST NON-SEC CONTENDERS
Virginia Tech (#15 schedule strength) and Oklahoma (#10 ss) both appear to be optimally positioned to take on the role of strongest contenders (based on their schedule and poll positions, not speaking to their teams) after the SEC juggernauts are considered. VT would not only end the Boise discussion out of the gate with an opening victory, but they would send a strong opening signal about their own NC aspirations. Their schedule also entails out-of-conference games against a solid East Carolina squad (granted with a coaching change) and a strong team in Central Michigan. They play a grueling 3 game stretch against ACC competition (GT, UNC and Miami) and have the potential ACC title game as a cap. While this may sound like a strong and unexpected statement to many, I think VT basically is guaranteed a NC bid if they go undefeated. Oklahoma has a similar path and seems highly assured of getting to the title game if they can navigate through a challenging OOC slate (Florida State, Air Force and Cincinnati), although I'll be honest that I think the difficulty of these games looks harder "on paper" than the reality (particularly with Cincy). OU will also have the benefit of the RRS and a potential top 10 matchup against Nebraska on the final weekend. If it came down to VT and OU both winning out, I like VT's chances better, as I think their resume may look more impressive when push comes to shove.

THE NEXT TIER OF CONTENDERS
Make no mistake, Texas (#45 ss) and Ohio State (#50 ss) can be in prime position for the NC game if they go undefeated, but I do think they will need a little help in making sure a team of VT or OU's caliber sustains a loss (Texas can obviously have direct control over the OU side of the equation). Texas has the monumental games against OU and Nebraska, but little else beyond that (unless UCLA puts together a season way ahead of expectations). Texas would also have the oddity of getting a mixed bag of accolades if they were to win in a rematch against Nebraska in Arlington. But the Longhorn's reputation, preseason ranking, and numbers of the way their schedule strength comes together would probably get the job done if they win out. If the Big XII south restored its amazing strength from 2008 (when OkSt and TTU became top 10 teams along with Texas and OU), Texas can make waves even with an early/mid season loss. Looking to the Big 10, Ohio State has several key games against teams that appear to be top 20 quality (Miami, Wisconsin, PSU, Iowa), but none of those games at least from this early preseason perspective have the same cache as Texas/Oklahoma. Ohio State is also somewhat vulnerable by not having a conference title game, especially with the Michigan game consistently losing its luster year-by-year.

THE HUSKERS
Nebraska appears to be a notch below most of the non-Boise contenders already mentioned (schedule #73), as they play in the weaker Big XII north and they don't sport a particularly impressive OOC schedule (unless you are buying the Jake Locker/Washington love, which I know many are). They do, however, have the opportunity to post big wins against Texas and Oklahoma, if the Big XII plays out right for them. I don't like Nebraska to jump VT or Ohio State if they all go undefeated, and I think Nebraska has a hard time getting back into contention if they sustain an early loss. But yes, if Nebraska truly is ready to return to its mid-1990s (or even early 2000s) form, then they have the ingredients for a NC run.

THE IRRELEVANT
I think TCU is at best a long-shot for NC contention barring complete chaos among the other contenders. Their schedule is Boise-ish as far as its strength (#84), but without any kind of sexy matchup. The only intriguing games (at least from what we know now) are Oregon State and Utah. TCU is basically guaranteed to be stuck in its current ranking without any kind of platform game to help its cause. If your TCU, keep the at-large BCS bowls on speed dial.

THIS YEAR'S IOWA?
One final observation: who could be this year's Iowa? After all, Iowa came out of nowhere to create a lot of noise in the BCS standings during the mid-to-late parts of the 2009 season, as their undefeated record against a difficult schedule propelled them to a consensus #1 computer ranking at one point. I'll throw out a name (but not give them the honor of having their logo included in this post... that would just be silly)... Pittsburgh has a schedule that looks good on paper (#23) and features some big early matchups against Utah, Miami and Notre Dame. If Pitt is able to run the table in those games, I think they become a less-conventional BCS contender.

And obviously, yes, if teams such as LSU, Auburn, Oregon, Miami, Iowa, Penn State, and Wisconsin make impressive runs for winning their leagues, they will be in the thick of things as well.

The Coaches Poll -- Comparing Start to Finish

Friday's release of the preseason coaches poll got me thinking. When I saw the Virginia Tech Hokies sitting there at #6, I immediately thought, "man, yet again, Virginia Tech is over-rated." But then I thought rather than rely on my own recollections and biases, I should see if my reaction was true.... that Virginia Tech does, in fact, start the year ranked higher than where they finish. As you will see, I couldn't have been more wrong on the inaccuracy of preseason voters when it comes to VT.

I began by collecting the coaches poll rankings as far back as readily available (ESPN's complete poll archive goes back to 2003), pulling in the preseason rankings and the final (post-bowl) rankings. I have seen some lazier analysis that used average rank; this, in my view, is not appropriate. I instead use the "points" awarded on a ballot, which allows us to measure stronger rankings (a consensus #1 is stronger than a divided #1). Points also allow us to measure those teams that fall into the "others receiving votes" category. Teams that don't show up in a poll at all get a big fat zero (which I think is fair for this exercise), and their average poll position/points will suffer as a result. I also divided the points by the total number of voters, to eliminate the fluctuation in how many coaches completed ballots. Basically, if a team ranked a perfect #1 on every single ballot, they get 25 points, and if they ranked a perfect #25 on every ballot, they get 1 point.

We begin by looking at the best finishing teams from the 2003 to 2009 seasons. Southern Cal truly dominated this time series, and edged out Texas for the #1 spot. USC's 20.6 "points" means that on every final ballot from 2003-2009, they had an average of 20.6 points, which means they were, on average, ranked about fifth (26 minus 20.6 equals 5.4). Ohio State, LSU and OU round out the top 5. In the top twenty, there are five SEC teams, five Big 10 teams, two Big XII teams, two Pac 10 teams, two Big East teams, and four from other less powerful conferences.

To help frame the discussion on which teams are beating or failing to meet expectations, we also need to see how the typical preseason rankings look. We see a lot of similar names on this preseason list when compared to the final rankings, but some names such as Notre Dame, Louisville, California, Florida State and Tennessee also show up, suggesting these teams fail to hold onto loftier preseason rankings in the final rankings.

With these two lists compiled, we can take the next step to figure out which teams appear to be perpetually overrated in the preseason. Basically, we can compare the average final ranking against the average preseason ranking to arrive at a list of teams that tend to be the most overrated. Oklahoma tops this list, averaging almost 7 ranks below their preseason ranking. Florida State, Michigan, Miami and Cal round out the top five "disappointers." All of these disappointing teams come from so-called "power conferences."

Looking at the reverse phenomenon, the best "outperformer" compared to its typical preseason rank is Boise State, which tends to climb about 9 spots in the polls during the typical season. TCU, Utah, Alabama and Cincinnati round out the top 5. It will be interesting to see how Boise fares this year, as they have usually been a teens/twenties ranked team in the preseason polls, but the pollsters seem to have finally given them some respect to start off the season.

And yes, Virginia Tech ranked with an average of 12.3 points in the preseason, and an average of 12.3 points in the final poll. I guess the preseason polls couldn't have had them more right.